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- Bets Dressed - Week 12 - Uniform Matchups and Picks
Bets Dressed - Week 12 - Uniform Matchups and Picks
One trap game down. More to come in Week 12. While there’s no way we’re topping the aesthetic wonderland that was the Steelers-Browns snow globe, there’s still a healthy dose of solid matchups. And keeping with a consistent theme this season: no truly worthy worst of the week - but we do what we must. Let’s roll.
A quick note on methodology.
As always, I’m analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best. And just because a team is ranked higher in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings doesn’t mean it will automatically win the uniform matchup. It’s what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.
Week 12 Uniform Matchups and Picks.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
No surprise the Titans took advantage of an opportunity to wear light blue in Houston. And we’re all better off aesthetically for it. Tennessee’s wardrobe is still incredibly flawed, but they deserve credit for wearing their better combos for the most part this season. And this is best case scenario against the primary Texans home look - which continues to be a home run. Houston’s darkest navy and brightest red win the day once again.
Divisional game with a rest disadvantage screams trap game. But the ineptitude of the Titans is not so easily restrained. And the Young Texans - namely CJ, Nico, and Tank - are due to go nuclear.
The Pick: Texans -7.5
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Now this is a Cowboys-Commanders uniform matchup I can get behind. Washington in gold pants is the gift that keeps on giving. And they find the perfect complement in the classic look of the Cowboys. While not best of the week, this was certainly on the shortlist. And Dallas is the pick.
The wheels are all the way off in Jerry World. And the only intriguing questions remaining this season are when will Mike McCarthy be fired and will the Cowboys give us the gift of signing Daniel Jones to face his old team on Thanksgiving? The Commanders are in desperate need of a get-right game. So you’d think this is just what the doctor ordered. But trap games are going to trap game. And I can live with 10 and the hook.
The Pick: Cowboys +10.5
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
I have no issue with teams breaking out a blackout uniform once or twice a season. But it’s hard to get excited about this Panthers look when their black helmet-blue jersey combos are superior and offer a much needed pop of Process Blue.* This is especially the case when thinking about how that blue would play off the red elements of Kansas City. Speaking of, Chiefs are the clear choice.
Coming off a loss, it’s hard to imagine the Chiefs falling victim to a trap game. But Bryce Young has never lost in all black, Dave Canales has this Panthers team playing with some spunk, and the field in Carolina has never looked better. With that said, there’s just no way. Right?
*Black helmet-black jersey-blue pants would have my attention. Dark-dark-pop of color routinely delivers.
The Pick: Chiefs -10.5
NOTE - the Chiefs have yet to reveal their choice of pants.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Always a good time when the Bears throwbacks make an appearance.* There’s something quirky about the stripe-a-palooza that just works.** I continue to be lower on the Vikings than others, so Chicago is an easy pick in my book.
With all due respect to the Vikings, it’s hard to believe they’re an 8-2 football team. The defense is legit and Kevin O’Connell can call a game with the best of them, but the Sam Darnold cracks are beginning to show. The Bears are stumbling through the bumpiest patch of their season. However, that defense is still Top 12 in success rate, Top 8 in EPA per play, and Top 5 in EPA per pass. Uh oh, Sam.
*Though I must say I’ll be bummed if they don’t make another appearance in Detroit for Thanksgiving.
**Not lost on me there are stripes everywhere except for the pants. But I understand adhering to historical accuracy.
The Pick: Bears +3.5
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Like the Commanders above, New England’s commitment to the silver pants this season has been a much needed and overdo game changer. And while this Dolphins look will always appear deficient in comparison to past Miami wardrobes, even I must admit it’s over-hated. Sneaky good matchup it is. But giving the edge to the silver slacked Pats.
Believe it or not, the Dolphins have a long shot path to the postseason. But there’s absolutely no margin for error. One wrong game. One trap. And it’s over. Enter Drake Maye - the much needed bright spot in a dark period in Patriots history. I am not saying he’ll get the job done in Miami. But I am saying he’ll keep it close.
The Pick: Patriots +7.5
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Bucs at Giants for a nice little uniform matchup. Won’t compete for best of the week but there’s certainly nothing to complain about. Tampa Bay is in a class above and gets the nod.
The Daniel Jones Era is officially over in New York. And the Tommy Cutlets interlude is back for an encore. With Mike Evans returning for the Bucs, I don’t think it’s going to matter who’s under center for this rudderless Giants. Let’s Bake.
The Pick: Buccaneers -5.5
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Still waiting on official word from the Broncos regarding their pants. Orange pants would be a home run. White pants would be serviceable. And navy pants would have them in the worst of the week conversation. Posting the worst case scenario above for posterity. But the Raiders have already been dragged into worst of the week this season for no fault of their own. So giving them the nod here and steering them clear of the spot of shame.
Tip of the cap to Sean Payton. It’s only year two, he’s found a franchise quarterback, and he has the Broncos thinking playoffs despite navigating the cap fallout from the Russell Wilson debacle. But this is trap week for a reason. And these Raiders fit the spoiler bill and then some.
The Pick: Raiders +6
NOTE - the Broncos have yet to reveal their choice of pants.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
49ers-Packers in the runner-up for best of the week.*. It’s not in the same ballpark as Cowboys-Niners, but this is still a glorious uniform matchup that screams high-stakes NFC football. Red and gold of San Francisco has the edge over green and yellow of Green Bay.
Big news in this one is no Brock Purdy and no Nick Bosa for the Niners.** So Kyle Shanahan needs to reach deep in his bag of tricks to navigate a Brandon Allen-led offense to victory. At least he has something going for him: his old protege Matt LaFleur is 2-4 in his career against San Francisco including the postseason. Kyle and the boys are going to need history to hold to steal one in Lambeau.
*It was essentially a tie with Steelers-Browns heading into Thursday Night Football. But the snow globe blessing from the Uniform Gods revealed that the right pick was made.
**Year from hell continues.
The Pick: 49ers +5.5
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Cardinals and Seahawks running back last year’s uniform matchup from Lumen Field. Sign me up. Arizona boasts one of my favorite white uniforms in the league. And I’m always a sucker for gray pants from Seattle. Cardinals are the pick but into this one overall.
The race for the NFC West crown is on. Winner of this one will find themselves in at least a share of the lead. Seahawks have claimed the last five meetings between these teams. And I can assure you that message has been communicated loud and clear from Jonathan Gannon to this Cardinals team all week.
The Pick: Cardinals +1.5
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Was rooting for midnight green pants from Philly. But still a solid uniform matchup. I’ve gone back and forth with the pick here. I’ll never accept the gradient numbers from Los Angeles, but it’s hard to ignore arguably the best color palette in the league against the Eagles in so much white. Rams it is.
Hard to top the game we got from Steelers-Browns in primetime this week. At least this one features two playoff contenders. Saquon has unlocked an element of the Eagles offense. But don’t overlook this young and fiery Rams run defense - top half in rushing yards and touchdowns allowed and EPA per rush.
The Pick: Rams +3
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
In a week with no clear choice for worst of the week, Ravens-Chargers was dangerously close to the bottom spot.* But I’m a sucker for this Ravens look - excellent pant stripe, effective purple accents, and a dose of helmet contrast (plus one of my favorite helmet logos in the league). Then there’s the Chargers navy alternate, which is flawed but on the verge of greatness. Yellow or white pants (or alternatively a navy helmet) and we are cooking with gas.** Baltimore is the pick. But Los Angeles can take this one in a rematch*** if they make changes mentioned above.
Of all the games this week, I’m most looking forward to this one. The Harbaugh Bowl will get all the headlines. But I’m most interested to see if the Chargers belong with the class of Super Bowl contenders. Unfortunately for Los Angeles, they’re getting Lamar and the Ravens coming off a loss. While some people removed Lamar Jackson from the MVP top spot after his loss to the Steelers and Josh Allen’s heroics against the Chiefs, Lamar still bests Allen in total yards, total touchdowns, touchdown/interception ratio, completion percentage over expectation, average net yards per attempt, EPA per dropback, QBR, and passer rating. Stated differently, don’t forget about Lamar. And if you have, be sure to tune in for Monday Night Football.
*Black pants from the Ravens would have made it a no brainer.
**This Chargers navy alternate (and the supposedly scrapped royal ensemble) are members of one of my least favorite combo clubs: white helmet over darker unitard. But I admit the strengths of the Chargers wardrobe still shine through and make their iterations the best of a flawed class.
***Could cap off a Ravens-Chargers navy trilogy next season. But I must say it’s a crime we aren’t getting some iteration of powder blue against the Ravens for the second year in a row.
The Pick: Ravens -2.5
Worst NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 12.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
As noted above, no clear answer for worst of the week. And that’s reflected in the choice here. The color combo works overall. But the Lions white practice pants continue to irk me. And I still can’t see the vision with the “Indiana Nights” Colts. So many sharp iterations of black and blue to draw from in the college ranks,* but the Colts miss the mark with a heather blue unitard beneath a black helmet and jumbo black collar.**
Of all the trap games this week, watch out for this one. The Fightin’ Dan Campbells are certified world beaters and kneecap biters. But this Colts team has a knack for hanging around. With Anthony Richardson at the helm, Indy is 6-1 against the spread this season. All we care about is the under though. Lions have gone under in three of five road games. Colts with Richardson have gone under in four of seven overall. And we have the Uniform Gods on our side. Indy’s uniforms are flawed enough. But wearing Indiana Nights during an Indiana Day is bad juju for them and good under juju for us.
*Duke being the prime example.
**With that said, the helmet itself isn’t bad. And I appreciate the willingness to try a black alternate that isn’t all black. There’s a workable approach in there somewhere. My personal move would be to try black pants. And ditch that collar - the black helmet does not need a black pedestal to sit upon.
The Pick: Under 50.5
Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 12.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Full breakdown from Thursday’s issue here.
The Pick: Over 37
The Gridiron Uniform Database.
Uniform graphics seen here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. Best site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casuals alike.
Coming Attractions.
You know the drill. Back on Thursday for the Thanksgiving Extravaganza.
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