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Bets Dressed - Week 7 - Uniform Matchups and Picks

The Week 7 main slate is upon us. While not at the heights of some recent uniform weeks, there are still a handful of gems and - more importantly - very few duds. One of the many perks of living through the NFL’s aesthetic renaissance.

A quick note on methodology.

As always, I’m analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best. And just because a team is ranked higher in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings doesn’t mean it will automatically win the uniform matchup. It’s what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.

Week 7 Uniform Matchups and Picks.

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: ask and you shall receive.* After asking for silver pants with the white jersey since the inception of this Patriots wardrobe, New England is going silver-white-silver for the first time since 1999. And the Jags are finally wearing teal in London.** But this one is all about the silver-pants Patriots and stripes that finally match.***

Have to think Doug Pederson is coaching for his job in this one. Given the tone of the Jags players in recent press conferences, it’s hard to imagine they’re champing at the bit to save their coach’s job.

*Big day for asking and receiving. More to come.

**It’s hard to get fired up about it with a far superior teal option sitting in the throwback drawer.

***For whatever it’s worth, I’m not a “stripes always have to match” person. But it did become irritating with the Patriots where matching options were sitting there unused.

The Pick: Patriots +6.5

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

The Marshmallows put me in a pretzel. I love the idea of silver-white-white for the Lions. It’s a sharp, complementary look. And the blue elements absolutely pop. If it wasn’t for the omission of pant stripes, it would be one of my favorite uniforms in the league. But they can’t escape the curse of Dick’s Sporting Goods. With all of that said, I’m still going with the Lions over the Vikings - who are held back by the black mask and negative-space-nightmare number font.

For my money, this is the football game of the week. Unstoppable force versus immovable object. The Lions offense is a juggernaut. Best offensive line in football clearing the way for David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs - now officially crowned as Sonic and Knuckles.* And if you want to bring eight into the box, prepare for Jared Goff to cook you with Sun God, Jamo, and LaPorta. Meanwhile, the Vikings defense is a walking quagmire for opposing offenses - Top 2 in EPA per play, success rate, rush yards allowed, and interception rate. With all eyes understandably focused on that marquee matchup, I’m actually paying more attention to Vikings offense against Lions defense. And while the crushing loss of Hutch hangs over Detroit, I expect the Fightin’ Dan Campbells to rally and lock down Minnesota in honor of their star and leader.

*After using it for a long time, glad to see that nickname finally caught on with the guys themselves.

The Pick: Lions +1.5

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

The Packers debut of White Cheddar has arrived. And the Texans are meeting the moment with their first primary Deep Steel Blue-out in the new wardrobe. If Green Bay filled in that middle helmet stripe with yellow and if the Texans tagged in red pants to this ensemble, I’d have this one up there for uniform matchup of the week. But I just can’t fully get on board with this Packers whiteout look.* At least the pant stripes from both teams provide much needed pops of color to an otherwise navy-against-white affair. The red stripes are especially game changers for the Texans, and Houston is the pick as a result.

I’d sign up for a Stroud vs. Love Super Bowl tomorrow. And this Week 7 showdown isn’t too shabby in the meantime. I’m just going to sit back and enjoy the show. Plus I’ll never complain about riding with the points.

*I will never understand not mirroring the jersey and pant stripes on the helmet. Though I do appreciate the gold flakes.

The Pick: Texans +3

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Party like it’s the old AFC East. I’ve always enjoyed Dolphins-Colts uniform matchups. Something about the interplay of aqua and royal just works for me. Indy is the pick, but looking forward to seeing this one overall.

Curious to see if the Dolphins offense found any semblance of competence over the bye week. But not about to hold my breath. With Anthony Richardson expected to start, we’re in for a boom or bust afternoon.

The Pick: Colts -3

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

As a Triple Mismatch Club connoisseur, it pains me to criticize a member. But the green-white-black look for the Eagles has always looked off.* New York consistently looks sharp in Giants blue, and they are the clear choice here.

Can’t wrap my head around this line. Sure, Philly looked rough in their win over the Browns. But the Giants have looked rough all season. I’m not in the business of questioning the Uniform Gods. So time to hold our nose and roll with New York.

*Greatly prefer the black-white-black version worn in Brazil. And green-white-green is best of all.

The Pick: Giants +3.5

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Nothing screams October like a clash of pumpkin heads. And that’s what we have here with the orange-helmed Bengals at the orange-helmed Browns.* These teams are prone to pseudo-spring games, and this one is a classic case of two good uniforms resulting in an underwhelming uniform matchup. Give me the Browns in their season debut of orange pants.

As long as the Browns keep rolling out Deshaun Watson, this season is going nowhere. But at least Cleveland gets a dose of good morale with the return of Nick Chubb - one of the best pure runners of this generation. While it’s hard to see him returning to his old form immediately, perhaps his presence alone can carry this team to a win - or at least the cover.

*One of these days, Cincy or Cleveland will have the good sense to schedule one of their whiteout games for this matchup.

The Pick: Browns +5.5

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Titans-Bills in one of the more forgettable uniform matchups and football games of the week. Would’ve liked to see light blue pants from Tennessee. But at least Buffalo spared us from the blueberry unitard. Bills are the easy choice.

A third of the way into the season and Josh Allen is safely on the MVP shortlist. If forced to pick after Week 6, I’d give the slightest of edges to Allen over Lamar Jackson. It’s a dead heat when applying advanced metrics and the eye test, so the better supporting cast on the Ravens had me leaning toward Allen. With Amari Cooper now in Buffalo, that supporting cast storyline may be much different at year’s end. And I think Allen and his new top target roll against the Mason Rudolph-led Titans.

The Pick: Bills -8.5

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Raiders and Rams coming through with the best uniform matchup of the late window and a shortlist contender for best of the week. The silver, black, and white of Las Vegas are perfect complements to arguably the best color palette in the league. And despite the consistently infuriating gradient numbers, I’m going to give the slightest of nods to Los Angeles.

The Raiders are lost, and the Rams are down with the injury bug. This is one of those games where you can look at the quarterback matchup and ignore everything else. In Stafford we trust.

The Pick: Rams -6.5

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

You know the NFL aesthetic is in an excellent place when the Washington Commanders are part of a uniform matchup I can get behind. While flaws remain for the Commanders, those gold pants have worked wonders at home.* And the Panthers are finally meeting the moment breaking out the blue pants. This color combo is working for me. And dare I say it, this one actually landed on the best of the week shortlist. What a time to be alive. Panthers are the pick, but bravo all around.

While Jayden Daniels and the Commanders fell to the Ravens, they passed the contender eye test. The Panthers have just as convincingly cemented themselves as pretenders, but I think Andy Dalton still has a few tricks up his sleeve. And I expect Carolina to catch better teams by surprise the remainder of the season. Might as well start now.

*Next stop trying them out with white jerseys on the road.

The Pick: Panthers +9.5

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Chiefs at 49ers for a rematch of Super Bowls LIV and LVIII.* Kansas City and San Francisco bring two great individual uniforms, but they combine for red overload. Chiefs are the kings of clash, and games like this are the reason why. Niners are the pick.

We don’t talk enough about how spoiled the Chiefs are. Top 5 quarterback of all time. Top 5 coach of all time. Top 5 defensive coordinator of all time. And all currently at the peak of their powers. But I think they’re due for that first loss of the season. Regular season revenge isn’t going to satisfy Kyle Shanahan and these 49ers, but they’ll take what they can get.

*But with a different (and worse) uniform matchup.

The Pick: 49ers -1.5

NOTE - the Chiefs have yet to reveal their choice of pants. White pants would make this more palatable.

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Purple pants from the Ravens and we would’ve had an all-time Triple Mismatch Club showdown. But I’ll settle for what may be the best look from the Bucs. Tampa Bay all the way.

This game will be a good litmus test for whether the Bucs are Super Bowl contenders. Baltimore looks like one of the three best teams in football,* but I continue to think people are sleeping on this Tampa Bay team. Baker has played himself into the MVP conversation, the running back room has some juice, the top two wide receivers are ageless wonders, and the offensive line has stood tall. If this Todd Bowles defense can find a way to somewhat contain Lamar and King Henry, the Bucs have a chance to steal this one outright.

*Chiefs, Lions, and Ravens are my top 3 in no particular order. And it must be noted the Bucs have already taken down the Lions.

The Pick: Buccaneers +4

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Rounding out the Week 7 slate in style. When the Cardinals announced blackout uniforms agains the Chargers before the season, I had this one circled as a yin and yang matchup of the year candidate. But I was pleasantly surprised when Los Angeles decided to go with yellow pants. That pop of color is just what this matchup needs to take it to the next level. Chargers are the pick, but this one is going to look fantastic on the screen.

Chargers-Cardinals is a battle between tough outs with talent deficiencies. Both teams can give opponents fits on the right day, but neither is in contender territory (though I do think Los Angeles can sneak into the playoffs thanks to a wide open AFC). The Chargers defense has been a pleasant surprise, and I think they lock down the Cardinals rushing attack. While Kyler should get his, that’s not the game Arizona wants to play. And I think the Chargers capitalize.

The Pick: Chargers -1.5

Worst NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 7.

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

It pains me to place the gray-pants Seahawks here, but I do what I must. The blackout Falcons are rocking the worst individual uniform of the week. And the navy elements of Seattle aren’t helping in the contrast department. These hypermodern holdouts are fitting occupants of this week’s seat of shame.

With one of the highest totals of the week, Vegas clearly expects a shootout in Atlanta. And with these offenses and defenses, I can’t say I disagree. But while the Seahawks defense has clearly cratered after starting 3-0, people forget that the offense has taken a tumble of its own - now middle of the pack in EPA per play. And dare I say the Atlanta offense feels a touch overrated.

The Pick: Under 52

Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 7.

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

I said it at the top, and I’ll say it again to bring us home: ASK AND YOU SHALL RECEIVE. After years of calling for gray masks to accompany the block numeral throwbacks, the Steelers have finally delivered. Kudos to Pittsburgh. And while I would’ve preferred the Jets in their Classic uniform from last week, green-white-white is an excellent complement to these glorious Steelers throwbacks.

Gray masks with block numerals isn’t the only reunion taking place in Pittsburgh this weekend. Davante Adams is back with Aaron Rodgers. And if the Jets want to jump back into the Wild Card race, it needs to be just what the doctor ordered (and just what the over ordered). Russell Wilson is expected to get his first start for the Steelers. And while I do not agree with benching Justin Fields, this may help Pittsburgh in the long run by getting the lingering Russ vs. Justin question out of the way once and for all. Or it could further entrench a quarterback controversy. What could go wrong?

The Pick: Over 38.5

The Gridiron Uniform Database.

Uniform graphics seen here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. Best site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casuals alike.

Coming Attractions.

You know the drill. Back on Thursday for Vikings at Rams - the Battle of the Horned Helms.

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