• Bets Dressed
  • Posts
  • Bets Dressed - Week 5 - Uniform Matchups and Picks

Bets Dressed - Week 5 - Uniform Matchups and Picks

Welcome to Week 5 - one of the best uniform slates in recent memory. And arguably the hardest best of the week decision in the history of this newsletter. Throwback, alternate, and combo debuts, oh my!

A quick note on methodology.

As always, I’m analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best. And just because a team is ranked higher in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings doesn’t mean it will automatically win the uniform matchup. It’s what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.

Week 5 Uniform Matchups and Picks.

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Jets-Vikings getting the party started early from foggy London Town.* And they’re doing so with a green against purple secondary color showdown. Going with New York and hoping Minnesota takes notes about what white masks can do for a uniform wardrobe.

No more doubting these Vikings. Not only is Minnesota 4-0, but they’ve looked like world beaters against legitimate opponents. The Jets on the other hand have struggled to put together a complete game against anyone other than the Patriots. But I’ve watched enough football to know that once you start buying into the surprise contender, they tend to come back down to Earth. At least that’s what I’m putting into the Universe while on the side of the Jets.

*Humor is not lost on me whenever the league sends a group of Vikings to England.

The Pick: Jets +2.5

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Sunday’s first worthy contender for best of the week. Colts always look sharp in white. But this one is all about the Jags and those top-shelf throwbacks.* The Dream of the 90s is very much alive in Jacksonville. I can’t get enough of the helmet logo,** the big cat on the sleeves, the number font, and - of course - a healthy serving of teal (enhanced by both black and gold). Interestingly enough, the last time we saw this Jags uniform was December 18, 2008, on Thursday Night Football. Their opponent was the Colts - wearing what they’re wearing here. Wouldn’t fault anyone for having this matchup in the top spot, but I gave the slightest of edges to the game below. If forced to pick an individual uniform of the week, I think I’d go with the Jags. And they’re the clear choice here.

This season couldn’t be going any worse for Jacksonville - the only winless team remaining in the NFL. No better time to make an offering to the Uniform Gods to save the season.

*Modern Classic Revolution is calling, Jacksonville. Only tweak I’d make in a redesign is removing or thinning out the black collar. I’d also push for teal numbers on a hypothetical road uniform and bring back the blackout uniform (with pant stripes) as an alternate.

**I personally prefer the original logo and its sleek use of negative space to blend into the helmet.

The Pick: Jaguars -3

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

For the first time in franchise history, the Bengals are wearing orange pants with their black jersey. While I still prefer orange-black-white as a uniform combo in general, I’m loving the use of the orange pants against the purple pants of the Ravens. No uniform matchup screams “welcome to October” more than this one, and we have a frontrunner for the most seasonal matchup of the year. I was very close to elevating this NFC North battle to best of the week but decided to respect an aesthetic elder instead. As far as the pick here is concerned, I rarely pass up an opportunity to honor Baltimore’s purple pants and one of the best Triple Mismatch Club road uniforms in football.

The Ravens squashed the Bills and reminded the football world they’re on the Super Bowl contender shortlist. And the Bengals finally showed signs of life (albeit against the lowly Panthers). While the Cincy offense appears to have found its stride, the defense - and especially the run defense - still feels lost. With the league’s most dangerous rushing attack coming to town, look out.

The Pick: Ravens -2.5

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

In a week filled with best uniform matchup contenders, Bills-Texans is on the outside looking in. But this one ain’t too shabby. The Bills whiteout look always delivers. And I’m a fan of the Texans H logo and alternate bullhead sleeve logo. I would’ve liked to see H-Town blue or red pants with this ensemble, but I recognize Houston’s hands were tied by a “compromise” as to the amount of light blue they could utilize. Buffalo gets the nod, but this is a dark horse contender for yin and yang matchup of the year.

While far from uniform matchup of the week, this showdown is my pick for football game of the weekend.* Despite a beatdown in Baltimore, Josh Allen has my MVP vote through the first quarter of the season. And CJ Stroud is showing no signs of a sophomore slump. Of all the moving parts in this one, I have my eye on the Texans anemic run game against the Bills porous run defense. Something’s got to improve. And my money is both literally and figuratively on Buffalo.

*Purposefully went with weekend instead of week. Can’t see any game topping that Bucs-Falcons electric factory on Thursday.

The Pick: Bills +1.5

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

The Commanders may still have the worst wardrobe in football. But kudos to them for introducing yellow pants,* which makes this burgundy uniform their best outfit. With the Browns in orange-white-white, this is a serviceable uniform matchup. Cleveland is the pick, but you know the NFL aesthetic glass is half full when even Washington is doing something right.

Good offense (Commanders) against good defense (Browns) and bad offense (Browns) against bad defense (Commanders). Jayden Daniels has been a revelation. But the hype is reaching such a fever pitch that a letdown game feels inevitable. Enter Myles Garrett.

*Next step is quitting the practice pant look for some pant stripes.

The Pick: Browns +3.5

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Dolphins at Patriots in the runner up for worst of the week. Nothing to write home about for the Dolphins, and the Pats navy unitard continues to disappoint. But the complementary contrast situation here is more tolerable than this week’s basement dweller below. Miami takes this one by default.

The grossest game of the week from a pure football perspective. Dolphins are lost. Rhamondre Stevenson* is benched. And I don’t even think Miami or New England fanbases are interested in watching this one.

*I continue to believe that Rhamondre wearing a single digit number would lead the league in rushing.

The Pick: Dolphins -1

NOTE - the Patriots have yet to reveal their choice of pants.

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

With temperatures expected to reach 100 degrees in Santa Clara, the Niners pivoted midweek from primary reds to red throwbacks* in order to up their amount of white under the sun. As much as I love the red throwbacks, I would’ve rather seen them against the Cowboys and Lions as originally planned.** With that being said, this is still a solid uniform matchup. The Cardinals do no wrong in all white, and the Niners showcase one of the best Triple Mismatch Club looks in the league. San Francisco gets the nod.

The good vibes in Arizona were short lived. And the Niners have settled back into their stacked selves. While divisional games tend to be toss-ups, San Francisco has won four straight against Cardinals with an average margin of victory of 22 points. I expect more of the same here.

*During Kyle Shanahan’s press conference, he noted that San Fran tried to switch to the white throwbacks, but the NFL put the kibosh on it.

**One of those games will likely change to keep San Francisco under the allowable alternate uniform threshold. If I had to pick, let’s see the red primary against the Cowboys once more for a true threepeat attempt at uniform matchup of the year.

The Pick: 49ers -7.5

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Giants-Seahawks is a lower tier uniform matchup this week. But I certainly wouldn’t call it bad. Seattle’s look is dated, and the Modern Classic Revolution is calling. But the navy bodysuit serves as a springboard here to allow New York’s red elements to shine.

Malik Nabers has essentially been the entire Giants offense to start his career. So his absence this week will be felt and then some. But the Seahawks are on a rest disadvantage after that demolition derby track meet in Detroit on Monday night, so never say never to New York keeping it close(ish).

The Pick: Giants +7

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

I’ll never get behind the Rams gradient numbers. And I’m generally opposed to the bone pants - especially as part of this ensemble. But in a world where the Packers consistently refuse to go yellow-white-white, I’ll give Los Angeles credit for not subjecting us to yellow pant clash. Still Green Bay in a no brainer.

Matt Stafford continues to be superhuman, but it’s becoming clear his heroics will not be enough to save this Rams season. Jordan Love looked rusty in his return from injury, but there were plenty of positives to take away from that second half against the suddenly elite Vikings. The Los Angeles defense is especially vulnerable against the pass, and I like a settled-in Love to remind the NFL world he’s a rising star.

The Pick: Packers -3

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Cowboys-Steelers. The NFL’s version of Lakers-Celtics. And one of the best looking rivalries across all sports. Feels wrong to not have this one in the top spot, but a decades-long uniform absence (see below) took precedence over the four-year absence of this inter-conference aesthetic. The most complementary look in football gets the edge.

With Dallas decimated by injuries on its defensive front - none more important than Micah Parsons - this game feels tailor made for the Steelers to take advantage. But Pittsburgh is dealing with its own injury bug on the offensive line. Justin Fields has impressed as the new guy for the Steelers, but Dak is a tier or two above. And I’ll never complain about rolling with the better quarterback.

The Pick: Cowboys +3

NOTE - the Steelers have yet to reveal their choice of uniform. Would be a fun occasion for block numbers.

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

We were this close to a solid uniform matchup, but the Saints couldn’t help themselves with that dreadful black helmet.* Chiefs run away with this one as a result.

Feels like 100 years ago that the Saints were 2-0 and looking like a team we might have to take seriously this season. If New Orleans isn’t already brought back to reality, the heavyweight champion Chiefs will be glad to do the honors.

*The Saints throwback Color Rush uniform is my favorite in their wardrobe. But this black helmet torpedoes the look. I’m not opposed to a black helmet in principle for New Orleans. But the fleur-de-lis wrapping paper stripe is a non-starter. Vanderbilt holds the key to the Saints shade of gold, and they also showed off an excellent black helmet yesterday in their upset over Alabama. I hope the Saints were paying attention.

The Pick: Chiefs -5.5

NOTE - the Chiefs have yet to reveal their choice of pants.

Worst NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 5.

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

If the Panthers keep insisting upon wearing black leggings against darkly dressed opponents, they’re going to keep dragging uniform matchups down to the cellar. While this one is far from worst of the year, someone* had to occupy the bottom spot in an otherwise elite uniform week.

Two Bottom 8 offenses in EPA per play and success rate. Music to an under bettor’s ears.

*It must be noted that this outcome is no fault of the Bears and fully on the poor pant decision making of the Panthers. Once again, light blue pants were right there.

The Pick: Under 41

Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 5.

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

November 22, 2001: the last time we saw this Broncos look on a football field.* What a joy to have those bright, vibrant colors back in the fold. When you factor in the 8,354 day Orange Crush absence and textbook complementary contrast against the white, silver, and black of the Raiders, this matchup claims the Week 5 crown in the most competitive race I can remember.**

The Raiders and Broncos combine to average 35 points per game, so no big surprise where the number fell here. Davante Adams continues to be out awaiting his trade to greener*** pastures. And not enough people are talking about the Broncos as one of the best defenses in the league. So I’d be lying if I said I feel good about the over. But I worship at the altar of the Uniform Gods. And offerings don’t get much better than those blue and orange Broncos beauties.

*In Dallas on Thanksgiving. Same day that Creed changed the halftime show game.

**As noted at various points above, I legitimately view this week as a four-way tie between Raiders-Broncos, Colts-Jags, Ravens-Bengals, and Cowboys-Steelers. And I’d have no real argument with someone adding Bucs-Falcons to that mix. Tiebreaker went to the special occasion of Orange Crush returning, its seniority over the 90s Jags, and the matchup’s showcasing of complementary contrast.

***Gang Greener, perhaps. Though I’m as intrigued as everyone else with Adams posting a picture of Edgar Allan Poe this week. Lamar, King Henry, and Davante is my kind of three-headed monster.

The Pick: Over 35.5

NOTE - The Raiders have yet to reveal their choice of jersey. Holding out hope Las Vegas will make the best of the week even better with silver numbers.

The Gridiron Uniform Database.

Uniform graphics seen here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. Best site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casuals alike.

Coming Attractions.

Buckle up. Back for a true rendition of Throwback Thursday with the Niners and Seahawks. And ready to receive the best uniform matchup of the year application.

Subscribe and share this newsletter far and wide. And always remember: Look Good. Feel Good. Pay Good.