The Week 4 main slate is upon us. Early season wonkiness is starting to fade, and there is no shortage of marquee showdowns - aesthetically and otherwise.

A quick note on methodology.

As always, I’m analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best. And just because a team is ranked higher in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings doesn’t mean it will automatically win the uniform matchup. It’s what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.

Week 4 Uniform Matchups and Picks.

Kicking things off with Broncos at Jets in a new wardrobe showdown. Orange pants were right there for Denver and would’ve elevated this one to the best of the week shortlist. I might’ve even considered going with the Broncos. At least they made my decision an easy one. J-E-T-S Jets! Jets! Jets!

The Jets are looking like legitimate contenders in the AFC. Rodgers is still that guy, and the new age New York Sack Exchange is a top-tier stop unit - leading the NFL in defensive sack rate. But don’t sleep on this Broncos defense. Through three games against three competent offenses, Denver is eighth in EPA per play and fourth in defensive sack rate. If Sean Payton can continue to tap into Bo Nix’s athleticism, the Broncos will be tough out all season long. So it’s another week where I’m sweating laying this many points against a scrappy Broncos team.

The Pick: Jets -7.5

Speaking of new wardrobes, say hello to Houston and the regular season debut of Deep Steel Blue. The Texans knocked it out of the park all around, and this dark navy ensemble may just be the best of the bunch. Unfortunately, the Jags still refuse to quit the no-teal bit and will force us to endure a dark and dreary affair. Just keep your eyes on Houston and be thankful for those pops of Battle Red.

I said last week that Doug Pederson’s hot seat was approaching first-coach-fired temperatures. And that was before the absolute shellacking received in Buffalo. A win against Houston may be his last chance to right a sinking ship, but the Texans are a dangerous team coming off their own shellacking at the hands of the Vikings.

The Pick: Texans -5.5

Since the schedule release, I’ve had this one circled for best of the week.. But the Rams dropped the ball going with blue pants over yellow. So no top spot. And the Bears take it by default.

The Rams may be decimated by injuries. But as long as Sean McVay and Matt Stafford are involved, they’ll have a puncher’s chance going in to every game they play. The Bears meanwhile are decimated by poor play calling and a sieve of an offensive line that has left Caleb Williams fighting for his life in and out of the pocket. There’s no better remedy for a struggling offensive line than an unwavering commitment to the run. So the Rams defense - bottom three in EPA per rush - couldn’t be coming into town at a better time.

The Pick: Bears -3

Steelers and Colts always deliver sharp uniform matchups. And this one is no different - landing on the best of the week shortlist. The colors are made for each other - black and yellow from Pittsburgh pair wonderfully with royal blue from Indy. There’s no right answer here. But I’m giving the slightest of edges to the Triple Mismatch Club Steelers.

The Colts finally got into the win column against the Bears, but Anthony Richardson has struggled mightily with accuracy all season. Enter the best defense in football. While this one may seem table set for Pittsburgh, don’t forget that Mike Tomlin’s Steelers are the ultimate “play to your competition” team. So prepare to sweat this one out.

The Pick: Steelers -1.5

The Dream of the 90s is very much alive in this one with two of the best looks originating from the end of the 20th century. An NFC playoff mainstay, the stakes always feel large when Philly and Tampa Bay square off in these outfits. In line with the typical result in those games, I’m going with the Bucs here.

The Saquon Barkley Offensive Player of the Year candidacy is in full swing. But the Eagles are at risk of playing in Tampa without AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith. Todd Bowles has historically flustered Jalen Hurts, and I don’t see that stopping without the quarterback’s two best targets there to help.

The Pick: Buccaneers +1.5

Assuming this matchup holds (see the NOTE below), we’re in for one of the most lopsided matchups of the week. The Falcons boast one of the best throwback looks in the league, and they’re the no brainer pick.

I know it’s only Week 4, but this is not a game the Falcons can afford to lose. Starting 1-3 and 2.5 games (factoring in the head-to-head tiebreaker) behind the Saints makes the playoffs a tall task for this pot-committed Atlanta team. I trust Kirk and the boys will act accordingly and take care of business at home.

The Pick: Falcons -2.5

NOTE - the Saints uniform reveal this week featured Tyrann Mathieu saying “white on white”. So that could theoretically be the uniform above, traditional Color Rush, or Color Rush with the black helmet. The middle option would make this a best of the week contender, but I would’ve expected a bit more build-up and fanfare with one of the Color Rush options. So my money is on primary gold-white-white. But always hoping for the best (traditional Color Rush) and preparing for the worst (the black helmet).

Let the big cats fight. I’m typically not a lighter helmet over darker unitard guy, but the Bengals find a way to pull it off better than others.* The Panthers look sharp in their own right in silver-white-white. But I’m giving a slight edge to Cincinnati.

The Andy Dalton revenge wrinkle is a fun one. But it’s do or die time for Cincy. As rough as an 0-3 start is, I still believe in Burrow and the Bengals. The defense has fallen through the floor, but the offense has been top five in EPA per play and success rate. And those numbers should only improve against this hapless Carolina defense. With that said, if they can’t get it done here, that’s a wrap on the 2024 season.

*Though I’d much rather see white or orange pants with the black jersey.

The Pick: Bengals -4.5

I may be lower on the Vikings than others, but I recognize a sharp NFC North uniform matchup when I see one. Purple, green, and yellow make for a captivating color combination. I just wish Minnesota treated us to a white or gray facemask.* Green Bay is the pick.

I’m done disbelieving these Vikings. That defense is legit, and Sam Darnold is playing like the guy at USC expected to take the league by storm. But Matt LaFleur has put together a Coach of the Year case leading Malik Willis to quarterback competency in Jordan Love’s absence. And LaFleur versus Brian Flores is the chess match of the weekend. If Love makes his reported return, I like the Packers to introduce the 2024 Vikings to the loss column.

*Especially after seeing the Purple People Eater throwbacks last week.

The Pick: Packers -2.5

This is a decent uniform matchup. Though it would be an ideal spot for the Patriots to go silver-white-silver for the first time in this wardrobe. Not about to hold my breath. Give me the 49ers.

Following a Week 1 upset of the Bengals, the Pats have come back down to Earth. And here come the Niners fresh off letting one get away against the Rams. Boat race incoming.

The Pick: 49ers -10.5

NOTE - the Patriots have yet to reveal their choice of pants.

If it wasn’t for an all-time vibes/gambling play below, Chiefs-Chargers would’ve once again taken home best of the week honors. And for good reason. These teams consistently combine for some of the most aesthetically pleasing showdowns in football. And red-white-red against white-powder blue-yellow is likely the best that they offer. Per usual, Los Angeles is the choice. But top marks all around.

Everyone - including Justin Herbert - is banged up on the Chargers. So it’s hard to see them genuinely threatening the heavyweight champions of the world. But Harbaugh is the master motivator, and divisional games are the ultimate equalizer.

The Pick: Chargers +7.5

The Browns entered the best whiteout uniform in the league conversation last year. And they continue to get bonus points for their willingness to bring an alternate look on the road to give us uniform dorks matchups we wouldn’t otherwise expect to see. The Raiders do no wrong in silver and black, but the Browns get the nod.

Both of these teams feel rudderless with uncertain play under center.* But they feature two of the best edge players on the planet in Myles Garrett and Maxx Crosby. This one may come down to which defense makes more plays. While Garrett is banged up, he was quoted this week saying “an injured animal is the fiercest.” I’ll take the reigning Defensive Player of the Year’s word for it.

*At least the Raiders aren’t paying their guy(s) $230 million fully guaranteed.

The Pick: Browns +1.5

When the Ravens announced blackout uniforms for the Bills game, my mind immediately went to yin and yang matchup of the year territory. But I have no issue with Buffalo breaking up the black and white with some blue pants. With that being said, I can’t bring myself to pick against the Ravens blacking out M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday Night Football.*

While I’m most excited to watch the best of the week below, Bills-Ravens is the on-paper pick for best football game of the week. The Buzzsaw Bills are back. And the Ravens found their groove in Dallas. Josh Allen has been the obvious MVP three weeks into the season. But I think two-time MVP Lamar Jackson reminds him who currently holds the belt.

*Baltimore is batting over .750 when Darkness Falls.

The Pick: Ravens -2.5

The Minty Fresh Classic* is back on Monday Night Football for the second year in a row. While I’m no fan of the Titans current wardrobe, navy-white-light blue may be their best primary color combo. And it’s always a treat to see the Dolphins in aqua - especially at home. Miami is the pick but looking forward to this re-run overall.

The Titans with Will Levis are chaotic. And the Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa** are stuck. Your guess is as good as mine as to how this one shakes out. But I’m content to ride with a Mike McDaniel with an extra day to prepare. Plus I’ve always been a Snoop Huntley believer. Looking forward to him getting some starts with these Dolphins skill players to show what he can do.

*Brought to you by [insert gum or toothpaste company here].

**Interesting development for last year’s “Tua doesn’t belong in the MVP conversation” crowd.

The Pick: Dolphins -1

Worst NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 4.

Woof. Doesn’t get much worse than this one.* Red-adjacent overload and an all-time bad practice pant bowl. At least the bizarre snakeskin gradient pattern of Washington’s white jersey will feel at home in rattlesnake country.

As awful as this uniform matchup is, it’s a sneaky great football game with no shortage of storylines. Kliff and Kyler revenge reunion. Jayden Daniels and Marvin Harrison Jr. rookie electric factories. And above all, two down-on-their-luck franchises looking to break back into the NFC playoff picture. Neither Arizona nor Washington are known for their defenses, and the total reflects that. But the Cardinals defense plays hard and is a bit better than many give them credit for coming in at 17th in EPA per play (compared to the Commanders in dead last). Factor in two offenses that are no strangers to pounding the rock and we can watch that clock run out before they clear the number.

*The leader in the clubhouse for worst uniform matchup of the year has arrived.

The Pick: Under 50

Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 4.

If you thought I was going any other direction this week, you’ve never seen the universal symbol* for “always bet the over”. At the outset, it must be noted that blue pants from the Lions would take this matchup to the moon. But I’m such a fan of this blue helmet/black jersey combo** that I’m willing to overlook that gripe (though I’m hoping at least a few Lions sprinkle in some blue socks to mitigate the bottom-heaviness). Honolulu blue and black pair wonderfully for a fresh take on a tired trend. And the Seahawks met the moment in navy-white-white. Doing this exercise over the years, I’ve learned that sometimes you need to set aside a more technically proficient (i.e., better) matchup that we regularly see (e.g., Chiefs-Chargers) and just go with the intangibles of a special occasion. Between the atmosphere at Ford Field and the story behind this black uniform and what it means to Dan Campbell and the Lions, I couldn’t keep this one off the Week 4 mountaintop.

This will be the fourth straight regular season matchup for the Seahawks and Lions. And you could set your watch to them hitting the over the last three years - clearing the number by an average of 35 points per game. Sure, both teams currently showcase ascending defenses. But when the Uniform Gods are trying to tell us something, listen.

*For the uninitiated, it’s a hybrid logo of the Seahawks and Lions. A points chimera, if you will.

**Immediately one of my favorite alternate helmet/jersey looks in the league. Add in blue pants, and this will be one of my favorite alternates of all time. Setting aesthetics aside, the coolest part about the return of the Lions black jersey is that it was a reward for Dan Campbell. He asked for it to come back in 2021, but Lions President Rod Wood told him to win the division first. Mission accomplished.

The Pick: Over 46

The Gridiron Uniform Database.

Uniform graphics seen here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. Best site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casuals alike.

Coming Attractions.

You know the drill. Back on Thursday for Bucs at Falcons - another dose of those excellent Atlanta throwbacks.

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