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Bets Dressed - Week 3 - Uniform Matchups and Picks
Welcome to Week 3. I am loving the board this week - one of the better uniform slates in recent memory. So much so that it felt wrong picking a worst of the week. But we do what we must. Let’s dive in.
A quick note on methodology.
As always, I’m analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best. And just because a team is ranked higher in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings doesn’t mean it will automatically win the uniform matchup. It’s what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.
Week 3 Uniform Matchups and Picks.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
We can work with this. The Texans redesign continues to impress.* And the Purple People Eater throwbacks are the best look in the Vikings current wardrobe. I’ve gone back and forth on my pick, and - believe it or not - I’m tempted to give the slightest of edges to Houston. Those sleeve horns keep speaking to me. But in the spirit of honoring this throwback occasion, I’m rolling with Minnesota.
Kevin O’Connell is establishing himself as one of the premier play callers in football. And the Sam Darnold Renaissance is starting to feel real. But the Young Texans are no joke. And DeMeco Ryan’s defense is coming on strong - Top 8 in EPA per play and success rate. Something tells me ex-Viking Danielle Hunter and his new running mate Will Anderson are going to bring Mr. Darnold back down to Earth. But I’ve doubted the Vikings all season. Here’s to them proving me wrong again.
*This is a matchup where that dark navy really delivers - sharply contrasting the Vikings purple.
The Pick: Vikings +1.5
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The Sunset Orange uniforms are making their official debut for Denver. And while I’m a fan of the look overall, they’re not in the same class as the Bucs. Tampa Bay takes it in their icy whites.
Taking what we’ve seen the last two weeks into consideration, the Bucs should steamroll the Broncos. But never underestimate the Any Given Sunday nature of the NFL to sneak up on you at any given moment. As such, there’s something about laying this number in this spot that makes me nervous.
The Pick: Buccaneers -6
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Bears at Colts. Party like it’s a bizarro version of Super Bowl XLI. Two stone cold classics that combine for the classic showdown of the week. I score this as a dead heat, so tie goes to the higher-ranked* Bears.
With the rookie growing pains of Caleb Williams, I expect the Bears to lean more into the running game. And with the Colts run defense being a disaster, it’s hard to think of a better opponent for Chicago to get their groove going on the ground. The unit I feel best about between these two teams is the Bears defense. And I like their chances to win it outright.
*By only one spot.
The Pick: Bears +1.5
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Giants and Browns. Timeless, traditional, and the runner-up for classic showdown of the week. But it’s the latest example of a uniform matchup that would benefit from the Giants gray pants. Browns would’ve been the pick regardless though, and I’m going to enjoy this one nonetheless.
Giants last week became the first team in NFL history to score three touchdowns, give up no touchdowns, and still lose in regulation. Another odious feather in the cap of the Schoen-Daboll Era.* And just when you thought things couldn’t get any worse, here come the Browns and their top-shelf defense. Rout watch is on.
*Bad things happen when you pay your mediocre quarterback franchise quarterback money.
The Pick: Browns -6.5
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It’s not everyday that I look forward to a uniform matchup featuring the Titans, but here we are. Navy-light blue-white is one of the better looks in the Titans basement dwelling wardrobe. And the yellow of Green Bay pairs well with both blues of Tennessee. Packers are the clear choice, but this one under the sun may surprise some people.
Malik Willis revenge game is the big storyline with the latest reports indicating that Jordan Love will wait at least another week before giving it a go. Like the uniform matchup overall, I think this battle will surprise as one of the games of the week. I’m content to take the points and trust what Matt LaFleur cooks up even without Love under center.
The Pick: Packers +3
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
The runner-up for worst of the week - through no fault of the Eagles. Would’ve been an ideal spot for the Saints to give us our ration of gold pants. But - stop me if you’ve heard this before - we’re forced to endure the black unitard. Philly it is.
Hard to believe the Eagles gagged up that Monday nighter against the Falcons. And even harder to believe the Saints* have the most prolific offense in football. While I don’t necessarily believe this level of dominance will last, credit where credit is due: the Saints are legit. Philadelphia notoriously struggles in New Orleans, but I like them to keep it close at the very least. And wouldn’t shock me in the slightest to see an outright win for the Birds.
*Allow me to be the first to eat crow for calling New Orleans the most milquetoast roster in football.
The Pick: Eagles +3
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I’m lower on the Dolphins and Seahawks than others, but there wardrobes aren’t even bad - just not as good as could be if their modern classic potential was fully realized. And this uniform matchup works for me. If the Seahawks went gray pants, I may have given them the edge. But give me the white-white-aqua Dolphins over a navy bodysuit.
The only place to start here is Tua. Gutted for the guy. I don’t think it’s anyone’s business to weigh in on his career path so just wishing him the best in his recovery and whatever he decides to do thereafter. While it’s hard to see a positive path forward for this Dolphins team in an ultra competitive AFC, let’s see if they can keep it close against an impressive looking Seahawks team that has yet to be truly tested.
The Pick: Dolphins +4.5
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I was expecting the Ravens to go purple-over-white* or purple-over-black, so the purple unitard** took me by surprise. But I’m still digging this overall. The Cowboys once again shine with the most complementary look in football. And the Ravens with their black and purple take full advantage. Dallas is the pick, but I think this one is going to look fantastic on the field and on the screen.
Week 3 is still a bit too early for “must win” territory. But the Ravens are just about there.*** It’s hard to figure out what they’re up against in the Cowboys. Dallas beat down the Browns on the road then got boat raced by the Saints at home. Your guess is as good as mine about which Cowboys team we get here, but I’m hoping it’s the one that delivers the cover.
*Would’ve been best of the week and perhaps even 2024’s Best Showdown of the Triple Mismatch Club.
**If you’re going to wear a unitard, go with a helmet of a darker shade - which the Ravens pull off here. Otherwise, just lean into the bodysuit look with a helmet the same shade as the rest of the uniform. Things go completely off the rails with a lighter helmet over a darker unitard.
***If not now, then when? The Bills and Bengals are up next on the docket. Could get ugly fast in Baltimore.
The Pick: Cowboys +1.5
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49ers and Rams consistently deliver good uniform matchups. While the Rams gradient stripe drives me nuts, blue pants are the correct color choice against the Niners in red. San Francisco gets the nod.
2024 is becoming the year from hell for the Rams. Injuries galore and an 0-2 start. The Niners have no shortage of injuries in their own right. But their overall roster talent is their greatest strength, and I expect it to be the deciding factor at SoFi.
The Pick: 49ers -6
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Lions-Cardinals has so much potential as a uniform matchup. During the offseason, I advocated for the Cardinals to go white at home for this one to set the table for a uniform matchup of the year contender. But if not white, black is the next best option in Arizona’s current wardrobe. For my money, the Ninja Cardinals boast one of the best blackout uniforms in the league. At a macro level, the Lions in silver-white-white are an excellent complement to any blackout look (and especially the Cardinals with their red accents). But the white practice pants continue to hold back Detroit’s “Marshmallows,” and I will never understand the decision to not apply their excellent sleeve stripe to the white pants. Cardinals are the choice as a result.
From a pure football perspective, this is the game I’m most intrigued by in Week 3. The Lions will be hungry to bounce back after dropping a close one to the Bucs at home. And the Cardinals are riding high after hosting a belated retirement party for Aaron Donald. The matchup to watch is Aidan Hutchinson against whoever the Cardinals trot out there at right tackle. For most teams, I’d say game over. But Kyler Murray offers an element of athletic escapability that is almost* peerless. And if he plays at the MVP level he’s showing to start 2024, look out for Arizona to stand their ground and punch the Fightin’ Dan Campbells in the mouth.
*Lamar also comes to mind.
The Pick: Cardinals +3
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Chiefs-Falcons gives us the the first of three* lopsided primetime uniform matchups. The icy white Chiefs are always a delight. And these Falcons are always a disappointment. Kansas City in a no brainer.
Kirk Cousins coming to life saved the Falcons from an 0-2 start. But if the Kirk we’ve seen during the majority of the first two weeks is the Kirk we get in this one, it could get ugly fast. The Chiefs are still those guys, and I like them to roll in Atlanta.
*Really four when we factor in Pats-Jets from Thursday.
The Pick: Chiefs -3
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
The week started with the Jags announcing teal pants. And it ended with them pivoting to black pants - for reasons I do not understand. But it’s par for the course for a team that’s addicted to omitting its best color from its uniform choices. Jacksonville just can’t quit the bit.* And the Bills run away with this one.
Part I of the Monday Night Football doubleheader. The Jaguars are reeling. And the buzzsaw Bills are back. The Doug Pederson hot seat is approaching first-coach-fired temperatures, and a Monday Night Football game in Buffalo likely won’t do him any favors.
*The Jags could learn a thing or two from the Bills - who seem to have left their obsession with the blueberry unitard in the past.
The Pick: Bills -4.5
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Rounding out Week 3 with a third straight one-sided showdown. The Commanders drag around one of the the worst white jerseys in football, but at least they spared us from white practice pants here. On the other side of the field, the Bengals show off one of the best Triple Mismatch Club looks in the league - and arguably the best uniform in their top tier wardrobe. It’s all Cincy in this one.
Part II of the Monday Night Football doubleheader. If the Bengals can’t get it done here, then I’m ready to scratch them off for the season. But I just can’t see it happening. Burrow and the boys had the two-time defending champs on the ropes last week. And Tee Higgins should finally be back. Jayden Daniels is showing promise. But as Cam Taylor-Britt so eloquently put it, “they keep it really simple for him. Nice college offense.” As the leader in the clubhouse for interception of the year, I’ll take his word for it.
The Pick: Bengals -7
Worst NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 3.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Panthers-Raiders is looking a bit too much like a college spring game for my liking. While this one won’t come anywhere near worst of the year, it is a textbook example of teams* refusing to think about the overall uniform matchup. I will never understand the Panthers choosing to wear black pants against the black-jersey Raiders when blue pants were sitting right there. Make it make sense.
There is no force in gambling more powerful than an interim coach game. But what about an interim quarterback game? While this one may be ugly overall, it wouldn’t shock me in the slightest to see Andy Dalton bring some semblance of stability and lead this Panthers team to an outright victory. So long as they keep the total below the number, I’ll be there to enjoy it.
*To be clear, I don’t put this one on the Raiders at all.
The Pick: Under 40
Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 3.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
The game of the week - aesthetically and otherwise. The Chargers came through in a major way saving us from yellow pant clash. And in a week filled with worthy contenders, Chargers at Steelers - in a delightful showing of complementary contrast - snags the top spot.
I haven’t been this excited for a regular season game in a while. We’re in for a rock fight for the ages, and the total reflects that. We may need some defensive or special teams scores to get us over the edge, but don’t sleep on the Justins - Herbert and Fields - delivering an explosive or two.
The Pick: Over 34.5
The Gridiron Uniform Database.
Uniform graphics seen here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. Best site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casuals alike.
Coming Attractions.
You know the drill. Back on Thursday for (Arctic) Cowboys at Giants.
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