- Bets Dressed
- Posts
- Bets Dressed - Week 13 - Uniform Matchups and Picks
Bets Dressed - Week 13 - Uniform Matchups and Picks
Still full from Thanksgiving and a healthy serving of four football games before the main slate. But we’re just getting started. Welcome to the rest of Week 13. Check your superstitions at the door. And let’s get to it.
A quick note on methodology.
As always, I’m analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best. And just because a team is ranked higher in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings doesn’t mean it will automatically win the uniform matchup. It’s what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.
Week 13 Uniform Matchups and Picks.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Always nice to see Bengals orange alternates make an appearance - so long as black or white pants* are there to mitigate orange overload. The Steelers road combo - a lifetime rewards member of the Triple Mismatch Club - is a sharp complement. And this one will be the latest example of the best dressed division in football offering up a top shelf uniform matchup. I do prefer the Bengals primary black jersey over the orange alternate, so giving the edge to Pittsburgh.
The Bengals are officially out of time. No more wiggle room. No more cushion. One more loss and there’s no conceivable path to the postseason. They should be well rested off the bye. But unfortunately for them, they draw a Steelers team coming off a loss and well rested themselves off a mini-bye. Looking at the recent history of this rivalry, Pittsburgh won both matchups last season and three of the last four. One could say the Bengals are due. But it’s been one of those seasons for them.** When it comes to their luck changing, I’ll believe it when i see it.
*We haven’t seen the white pants version since its lone appearance in 2021 - a win against the Jags.
**I’ve said this for years, and I’ll say it again now: Zac Taylor holds this team back. An opening in Cincy would be the most attractive head coaching job on the market. If it were up to me, I’d thank Taylor for his service and introduce Ben Johnson to Joe Burrow. But knowing how the Bengals usually operate, Taylor is likely around for the long haul.
The Pick: Steelers +3
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Colts at Patriots in a delightful blast from the past. Indy’s look is always a timeless classic. And it’s an ideal fit with New England’s Pat Patriot red throwbacks - arguably the best individual uniform of the weekend. I sometimes hear people say that uniform matchups can have “too much white” and “too much dark”. The latter I completely agree with; just look below at the worst of the week. But I’ll always push back on the former. White elements in a uniform matchup serve as the ultimate blank canvas - letting other elements pop. Here, that primarily involves the Pats red jersey. But it also goes for the other red and blue accents featured in this one. No shortage of color for this best of the week shortlister. New England is the pick but top marks all around.
I think the Colts are the better team at this point in time. But in a battle between two chaotic creators, give me Drake Maye at home over Anthony Richardson.
The Pick: Patriots +2.5
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
I’m tempted to call this Texans-Jags uniform matchup sneaky good. I’m not gonna do it. But I’m tempted. While, Jacksonville’s milquetoast practice pant look is still a mess, the black-teal-teal color combo works in certain situations. One of those situations is against Houston in navy-white-navy. Texans are the selection. And don’t be surprised if you find yourself liking this one on the screen more than you expected.
I keep waiting for the Young Texans to have their nuclear game. If it doesn’t come this week against the Jaguars, it may never come. But I picked Houston to represent the AFC in the big game. I’m going down with this ship.
The Pick: Texans -3.5
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
I’ve been a fan of this uniform matchup since seeing it in the preseason last year.* Certainly won’t compete for best of the week but a nice looking affair. The white of the Cardinals lets Vikings purple be the star of the show. But that complementary performance - complete with elite red and silver accents - earns Arizona the nod.
I keep doubting the Vikings, and they keep finding ways to win. You are what your records says you are. And it’s hard to argue with 9-2. But my fraud watch binoculars are firmly fixed on this Minnesota team. Enter the Arizona Cardinals. One week looking capable of hanging with any team in the league. And the next unable to score a touchdown. Your guess is as good as mine as to what version we get in this one. But if it’s the good version, look out.
*Safe to say the Vikings are fans of the Cardinals look. Their Winter Warrior alternate - set to debut Week 15 on Monday Night Football - follows the white, silver, and team color recipe for success.
The Pick: Cardinals +3.5
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Yin and yang uniform matchups don’t get much more lopsided than this one. When it comes to whiteout uniforms, the Chargers have one of the best. And when it comes to blackout uniforms, the Falcons have one of the worst. Choices don’t get much easier. Chargers all the way.
Atlanta should be well rested off the bye. But I continue to think they’re the most overrated division leader in the league. The Chargers will be hungry coming off the loss in the Harbowl. In the spirit of keeping Thanksgiving alive, Jim should have Herbert carving up that Falcons defense.
The Pick: Chargers -1
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
You know mistakes were made elsewhere when Titans-Commanders - the two lowest ranked teams in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings - aren’t in the worst matchup of the week. While there are no shortage of shortcomings in this one, kudos to the Titans for continuing to lean into light blue elements and adding a much needed pop of color here. Commanders blackout uniform continues to be my least favorite in the league. And Tennessee runs away with it.
No team needs a get-right game more than the Commanders. Washington has lost three straight and is 2-3 in their last five (one of those wins being the Hail Mary game against the Bears). But don’t be fooled by the Titans record. Tennessee’s defense is one of the best defenses in football - Top 8 in EPA per play, success rate, passing yards allowed, and rushing yards allowed. Post-rib injury Jayden has been a shell of his pre-injury self. If that continues, I think the Titans keep it close.
The Pick: Titans +6.5
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
For the first time in franchise history, silver helmet-black jersey-blue pants for the Panthers. While this combo is best suited for the black helmet,* kudos to the Panthers for trying new things the last two seasons.** Bucs do no wrong in pewter over white, and they’re the pick. But I think the pop from the Process Blue pants will end up stealing the show.
The record may not reflect it, but - for my money - the Bucs are the best team in the NFC South. And I couldn’t be happier for Bryce Young - who appears to have found a new lease on his NFL career since returning to the starting lineup. But this one feels pretty cut and dry. Bucs offense is Top 7 in EPA per play and Panthers defense is Bottom 2 in the same metric. Once again, let’s Bake.
*Carolina maxed out their alternate games this season, so black helmet wasn’t possible here. But rooting for that combo next season (and as the primary look of a future wardrobe).
**This “use ‘em while you got ‘em” mentality has my uniform redesign spidey senses tingling.
The Pick: Buccaneers -6
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Rams at Saints for one of the most one-sided matchups of the week. Los Angeles looking sharp in the best uniform in their wardrobe. And New Orleans looking bottom heavy in the most worn (and worn out) uniform in their wardrobe. Rams in a no brainer.
Darren Rizzi, the King of the Clog, has the interim coach mojo working. Can he make it three in a row against Sean McVay and the Rams? I have my doubts. Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford, and the Rams appear to be a shell of their usual offensive selves. But they’re still a Top 6 team in offensive success rate going against a bottom half unit. I think Stafford lets it fly all over the Superdome en route to the victory and the cover.
The Pick: Rams -2.5
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Whenever I think about Niners-Bills, the first person that comes to mind is Chris Berman. Felt like at least a decade that Boomer would pick Buffalo to circle their wagons against San Fran in the big game. And while it’s starting to look like a longshot this season, I’d sign up for that Super Bowl in a millisecond - aesthetically and otherwise. Speaking of aesthetics, this is a solid showing of complementary contrast. The 49ers red and gold elements pair brilliantly with Buffalo blue.* Mix in some snow, and we could have our second straight week of winter wonderland football.** In a loaded group for best of the week, Niners-Bills will have to settle for runner-up. But no argument with anyone having it at the top of their list. If there’s a nit to pick, it’s with Buffalo. The navy outlines continue to be unnecessary and should be scrapped. So give me the flawless 49ers.
Playoff relevancy could start slipping through San Francisco’s fingers with a loss in Buffalo. So Kyle Shanahan will be pulling out every trick in the bag to work his magic on Sunday Night Football. Josh Allen - Mr. Gravity Hammer himself - is going to get his, and he’s playing like the MVP frontrunner. But his chaos energy is always there just below the surface. With some possible snow falling and a Niners defense that is Top 10 in EPA per pass and interception rate, a reckless throw or two could leave the door open for a San Francisco cover - or an outright win.
*Only minor nitpick is red accents for both teams keep it from being a perfect contrast situation.
**Forecast looks like snow will stop hours before and be cleared off the field before kickoff. But we can still dream.
The Pick: 49ers +6.5
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
The Browns announced before the season they’d be wearing their whiteout uniforms in Denver. But they pivoted this week for the season debut of orange-white-orange (plus the first time wearing the combo with their new helmet). And I’m all for it. Cleveland’s orange elements offer sharp contrast against the Broncos and their debut of the Midnight Navy alternate. I’m a fan of the Midnight Navy look with white pants.* But I’m expecting the blue unitard.** And that makes Cleveland the clear choice.
Bo Nix can bring his OROY case to a national audience on Monday Night Football. And I like him to rise to the occasion. Nix is doing everything Sean Payton is asking of him and then some. Of quarterbacks with at least 300 attempts this season, Nix is Top 10 in touchdowns, interception rate, average depth of target, and rushing EPA. If nothing else, Jameis is certainly Top 10 in entertainment value. So that’s got to count for something.
*Even orange pants (but not against the Browns in orange pants of their own). I’m especially a fan of the Summit White helmet. But I think the ideal navy alternate for Denver would be navy-navy-orange.
**Another unfortunate entry in the white-helmet-over-darker-unitard club.
The Pick: Browns +6
NOTE - the Broncos have yet to reveal their choice of pants.
Worst NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 13.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
WOOF. Commanders at Cardinals officially has competition for worst uniform matchup of the year.* Shame on the Jets for giving us two blackout games instead of two Classic games. And shame on the Seahawks for again wearing this combo against a team going all-dark after it landed them in worst of the year last season.** I know that the Meadowlands can be dark and dreary this time of year, but there’s no obligation for the on-field aesthetics to match.
While the uniform matchup is a train wreck, I’m intrigued to see if Seattle can keep things rolling against the hapless Jets. Mike Macdonald and the Seahawks defense have re-found their groove - holding opponents to an average of 12 points since the bye.*** New York has won only one game since starting 2-1 and is averaging 20 points per game in that span. But that Jets defense still shows flashes and holds opponents under 17 points on average at home. A rock fight could be in our future, and that’s what these under ears like to hear.
*You know something has gone terribly wrong when the Commanders are wearing their blackout monstrosity, hosting the Titans, and NOT in the bottom spot for the week.
**Seahawks at Titans. Christmas Eve 2023. The We Deserve Coal Bowl.
***Look what happens when you allow competent linebacker play to tie together talented pieces on the front and back end. Ernest Jones for midseason acquisition of the year.
The Pick: Under 42.5
Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 13.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Another eye of the beholder situation for best of the week. I count at least six crown-able matchups this week where I would have no real argument in opposition. And I was very close to giving the nod to Niners-Bills - heavily influenced by the potential for a snowy backdrop. But I can’t help being a parody of myself. I’m forever a sucker for elite sleeve logos, helmet logos that explore the space horizontally, and keeping the Dream of the 90s alive. I’ve had my eye on the meeting of these late-90s-origin wardrobes all season. When you add in my love for this literally undefeated Ravens combo* and the Eagles meeting the moment with Midnight Green pants,** I just couldn’t say no to the Battle of the Birds.
In addition to uniform matchup of the week, this is easily the football game of the week. Saquon versus King Henry in the culmination of the free agent running back renaissance. And we’ve all got a front row seat to the most exciting Offensive Player of the Year race*** in recent memory. With the attention on these running backs, look out for this game turning into a Jalen-versus-Lamar shootout with both gunslingers taking advantage of opportunities for over-the-top explosives. Whether on the ground or through the air, we’ll be happy campers so long as the points keep flowing.
*Might be my favorite uniform in one of the best wardrobes in football. Dark-dark-pop of color for the win once again.
**For whatever it’s worth, white pants for the Eagles still likely lands this one in best of the week. Spiritually similar to Week 17 last season when Dolphins in white over white against Ravens in black over purple claimed the top spot.
***Especially for us card carrying members of Club Run the Damn Ball.
The Pick: Over 50.5
The Gridiron Uniform Database.
Uniform graphics seen here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. Best site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casuals alike.
Coming Attractions.
You know the drill. Back in a few days for the Thursday Night Football game of the year - Packers at Lions.
Subscribe and share this newsletter far and wide. And always remember: Look Good. Feel Good. Pay Good.