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Bets Dressed - Week 11 - Uniform Matchups and Picks

Week 11 has never looked better. Top notch aesthetic slate on tap. And some excellent football games to boot. No time to waste. Let’s dive right in.

A quick note on methodology.

As always, I’m analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best. And just because a team is ranked higher in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings doesn’t mean it will automatically win the uniform matchup. It’s what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.

Week 11 Uniform Matchups and Picks.

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

While you can never go wrong with one of the best rivalries in football, purple pants would’ve taken this uniform matchup to the next level. Even white pants would’ve provided a boost - giving us some purple in the pant stripes and saving us from so much black. Thankfully, yellow pants of the Steelers are there to give this matchup a pop of much needed color. And Pittsburgh is rewarded with the pick as a result.

A lot of great games this week - aesthetically and otherwise. Chiefs-Bills will justifiably get all of the headlines. But I’m most intrigued by this rekindling of the definitive AFC North rivalry. Lamar and the Ravens are coming off the mini-bye with the best offense in the league. But their formally world-beating defense has been a massive liability all season - especially against the downfield passing game. Enter Mr. Unlimited. Russell Wilson is Top 5 in average depth of target, adjusted net yards per attempt, EPA per dropback, and passer rating. How can I say no to infinity plus 3.5?

The Pick: Steelers +3.5

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

We can work with this. The best look in the Raiders wardrobe really shines against the Dolphins in all white. Aqua pants may have taken it to the next level, but no complaints with Vegas being the star of the show.

Signs of life from the Dolphins. And they should be able to stack another win against the Raiders. But it’s been one of those seasons for Miami. If nothing else, I think Las Vegas can keep it close coming off the bye.

The Pick: Raiders +7.5

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Packers-Bears is always a stone cold classic. Two timeless looks that just scream football. Feels wrong to pick a winner, so I won’t. Tie goes to higher-ranked Green Bay.

Just waiting for Chicago’s interim coach game at this point. Until that happens, consider me content to be riding with their opponent.

The Pick: Packers -5.5

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Colts at Jets in a battle between teams that primarily get by with white and one other color.* While both are sharp looks, New York’s jumbo collar and my personal preference for blue over green gives the edge to Indy.

Anthony Richardson is back. And I still believe. He may have 224 fewer regular season starts than his counterpart on the other sideline. But the Jets defense is ready to be stomped out. And I’ve got just the kaiju to do it.

*Not counting the gray mask or black swoosh in the case of the Colts.

The Pick: Colts +4

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

We were yellow pants for the Rams away from sneaky greatness. At least the Patriots have finally come to their senses with silver pants - seemingly becoming the new go-to look for New England. Good behavior is rewarded in these parts so Pats it is.

This may not be saying much, but the Patriots defense absolutely eviscerated the Bears last week. If they can bring even a fraction of that pass rush dominance into this one (and factoring in Stafford’s struggles against pressure this season), then Jerod Mayo’s bunch may surprise with an outright victory.

The Pick: Patriots +4.5

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Browns at Saints in arguably the most lopsided uniform matchup of the week. New Orleans - to no one’s surprise - again in their bottom-heavy black unitard. And Cleveland - to everyone’s relief - serving up the palette cleanser or orange-white-white (complete with their delightful striped socks). Browns by a mile.

Now that the magical powers of the interim coach game have worn off, the Saints are back to reality. And that reality starts and ends with having to contain Myles Garrett and a Browns defense that is Top 5 in sack rate. I don’t like their chances.

The Pick: Browns -1

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Another week. Another Jaguars game without prominently featuring teal. And another Lions home game without silver pants. Given these options, Detroit is the only choice. But underwhelming decisions all around.

Everything about this game screams Lions rout. While that would normally give me some pause, I just can’t wrap my brain around the Doug Pederson-led and Mac Jones-quarterbacked Jags coming within two touchdowns of the Fightin’ Dan Campbells.

The Pick: Lions -13.5

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

The Seahawks are far from my favorite wardrobe. And their navy-white-navy look is far from my favorite of their uniforms. But there’s no denying it pairs well with the Niners in gold-red-gold.* San Francisco is the obvious choice, but this NFC West matchup will look sharp overall on the screen.

After starting 3-0, Seattle is at risk of being left behind in the NFC West race. And that risk is exacerbated against a 49ers team they haven’t beaten since 2021. In addition to having their number, San Francisco is simply a better team than Seattle - substantially besting them in both EPA per play and success rate. Anything can happen in a division game and the Seahawks are well rested off the bye. But I expect recent history to repeat.

*Though we’re clearly a far cry away from the Throwback Thursday uniform nirvana we experienced when these teams met back in Week 6.

The Pick: 49ers -6

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Not going to beat a dead horse rehashing my dislike of the Falcons wardrobe. But I will again point out that the initial hate for the Broncos wardrobe was incredibly overstated. As expected, their new look has been sharp on the screen. And this navy-orange-orange* ensemble is likely to be no exception. Denver runs away with this one.

Sean Payton isn’t getting enough credit for the job he’s doing with this Broncos team.** And Raheem Morris has been no slouch on the opposite sideline. But I think the difference in this one comes down to the ability to get the opposing team’s quarterback. With the Broncos third in defensive sack rate and the Falcons dead last, I’m ready to roll with the home team at Mile High.

*If you’re going to wear Color A helmet over Color B unitard, you’re typically better off with the dark color rising. And the Broncos showcase that here.

**He’s a blocked kick away from being 6-4 and sitting pretty for an AFC Wild Card spot. Bo Nix is looking the part and putting together a longshot case for Offensive Rookie of the Year. And the defense has been one of the best units in football - with Patrick Surtain in the thick of the Defensive Player of the Year race.

The Pick: Broncos -2

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Chiefs at Bills in a red-blue classic. A uniform matchup worthy of the game of the week. I’ve said this before, and it bears repeating here: give me Chiefs in white over Chiefs in red. That contrast between helmet and jersey kicks their look up a notch. And the Bills in white-blue-white serves as a perfect foil. Giving the slightest of nods to Buffalo, but no notes overall.

The Chiefs are the heavyweight champions of the world until proven otherwise. But we can all acknowledge they’ve dodged some bullets* to remain unbeaten. And a road trip to Buffalo will be their toughest test yet. Josh Allen is playing like an MVP (if Lamar Jackson did not exist), and Sean McDermott’s defense is playing like a Top 10 stop unit. It’s never safe to bet against Patrick Mahomes, but the Chiefs left tackle spot has been a revolving door. Look out for Greg Rousseau and Von Miller to walk through all afternoon.

*Blocking a gimme field goal to beat the Broncos last week was peak dynasty nonsense.

The Pick: Bills -2

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Rounding out the week with the Battle for Texas. And this is a uniform matchup I can get behind. Will never stop rooting for the Texans to try red pants with this look, but the bright red pop of the pant stripe serves as an adequate alternative. The Cowboys are still the most complementary aesthetic in football, and add this one to the pile of examples. Dallas gets the nod, and this one is going to look fantastic on Monday Night Football.

If the Texans want to live up to their preseason Super Bowl aspirations, they can’t be blowing 23-7 leads at home - even to teams as good as the Lions. Fortunately for Houston, they draw the Cooper Rush/Trey Lance Cowboys in an ideal get-right spot. But everyone is going to be on the Texans here. And this league never ceases to remind us that any team can win on any given Sunday - or Monday.

The Pick: Cowboys +7

Worst NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 11.

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

The theme of the year continues to be difficulty in selecting uniform matchups truly deserving of worst of the week. And Vikings-Titans - while not remotely my cup of tea - is another example of a subpar matchup that will come nowhere near worst of the year. The Vikings continue to leave meat on the bone with black masks. And the all-navy Titans continue to be dark and dreary - made worse by the two-tone sword shoulders and “do not disturb” door hanger underarm panels.

The Vikings are coming off one of the grossest wins in NFL history. So the Titans should feel right at home. With Darnold looking like old Darnold, Levis looking like himself, and the possibility of rain, the under is music to our Music City ears.

The Pick: Under 39.5

NOTE - the Vikings have yet to reveal their choice of pants. But white pants wouldn’t save this one from the bottom spot.

Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 11.

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

No shortage of gems in Week 11. But none shine brighter than Bengals-Chargers. The two crown jewels of the Modern Classic Uniform Renaissance combining for a textbook case of complementary contrast. Doesn’t get much better than this, folks. Just sit back and enjoy the Sunday Night Football show.

Burrow vs. Herbert. Two gunslingers taken in the Top 6 of the 2020 NFL Draft. And the two keys to clearing the number in this one. The Bengals and Chargers are averaging 57 points combined over their last three games. And with the Uniform Gods on our side, I like that trend to hold.

The Pick: Over 48

The Gridiron Uniform Database.

Uniform graphics seen here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. Best site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casuals alike.

Coming Attractions.

You know the drill. Back on Thursday for Steelers at Browns.

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