Bets Dressed
Posts
The Road to Sin City: 2023 Team Futures and Dream Super Bowl Uniform Matchups

The Road to Sin City: 2023 Team Futures and Dream Super Bowl Uniform Matchups

Bets Dressed
September 03, 2023

Alright, folks. We’re back with the last offseason edition of the Bets Dressed newsletter with the regular season less than a week away.

It’s time to pick our division winners and wildcard teams and then see what we can cook up for possible dream Super Bowl uniform matchups.

Last season, the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings served as the guide in selecting playoff teams. This season, I actually went through every single game, thought about the best possible uniform matchup (including information we already have), and picked the winner.* The following Seeds 1 through 7 for the AFC and NFC derive directly from the regular season results of my simulation exercise.** The Road to Sin City starts here.

*I kept the simulation realistic and NFL-uniform-rule compliant (aka no elite throwbacks every week).

**Originally, I was planning to put the entire simulation into this issue. I started down that path and quickly realized it was a slog (from both a production and reading standpoint). Sounded fun in principle but was less than ideal in practice.

Playoff Picture

In the spirit of keeping it alphabetical, the AFC will kick us off.

AFC

(1) Los Angeles Chargers

No surprise that the No. 1 team in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings emerged as the top dog in the AFC. The Chargers can do no wrong aesthetically, but it’s time for the product on the field to take the step from good to great.

After squandering a 27-point lead in the playoffs last season, all eyes are on head coach Brandon Staley. He’s undoubtedly on the hot seat; if the Chargers don’t make a playoff run, he’s likely packing his bags. Justin Herbert - for my money a Top 5 NFL QB - is the tide that can lift all offensive boats in Los Angeles. With Kellen Moore coming over from Dallas to call the plays, look for Herbert to attack down the field with more frequency. The Chiefs* loom large in the AFC West, but the Chargers have the talent to knock the defending champs off their division throne.

*For the second year in a row, the Chiefs are on the outside looking in on the Bets Dressed playoff picture (in case you were looking for more proof that this exercise is solely based on uniform matchups and not on-field capabilities).

The Future: Chargers Win AFC West (+290)

(2) Cincinnati Bengals

Is this finally the year for the Bengals? It’ll take a third straight trip to the AFC Championship Game (and perhaps a third straight trip to Arrowhead*). The Bengals are now firmly entrenched as a Top 3 uniform wardrobe, and there are fleeting moments where I think they may even be able to challenge the Chargers for aesthetic supremacy. Cincinnati successfully petitioned the NFL to allow for their White Bengal helmet to be worn with their primary icy white uniform. Perhaps they can work their magic again to allow for the White Bengal uniform to make an appearance in a critical AFC playoff game.

While Joe Burrow tweaked his calf during training camp, there does not appear to be serious concern about him missing substantial time in the regular season (or any time at all). From top to bottom, the Bengals would get my vote for best roster in the league. Burrow was a bona fide MVP candidate last season, and I have him as the NFL QB2 overall behind only Patrick Mahomes. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are the league’s best WR duo (aesthetically and otherwise). The offensive line has been a weakness in recent years, but the signing of Orlando Brown has gone a long way to solidify things. And Lou Anarumo is still a mad scientist orchestrating a deep and talented defense. The Bengals are the best team in the best division in football (also aesthetically and otherwise). Look out.

*The Chiefs have hosted five straight AFC title games, so it wouldn’t shock anyone if we were in for a sixth.

The Future: Bengals Win AFC North (+140)

(3) Buffalo Bills

The Bills were fallers in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings. But in this exercise, I was able to make their uniform matchup decisions - so bye, bye blueberry unitard. As a result, Buffalo comfortably cruised to an AFC East title and the No. 3 overall seed.*

No one is talking about the Bills, and that’s the perfect place to be. The Bills have been the NFL darling the last few seasons, but the shine seems to have faded. More people than ever are writing them off and moving on to new toys (Jets, Jaguars, etc). But let’s not forget how dominant Josh Allen and the Bills can be. The team was spent last season between weather chaos, Allen’s injured elbow, and what happened to Damar Hamlin. The NFL is a grind regardless, but Buffalo felt especially snake bit last year. No team in the league could use a reset (and removal from the spotlight) more than the Bills. With media eyeballs focused more closely on their division rivals, consider me content to be riding with the Bills in the AFC East.

*The next division winner is going to divert us off the rails, so I’m going to pause here and say that I wouldn’t be remotely shocked if the 2023 season actually gave us LAC-CIN-BUF as 1-2-3 in the AFC.

The Future: Bills Win AFC East (+120)

(4) Indianapolis Colts

Do I feel good about the Colts actual chances of winning the AFC South? Of course not. But crazier things have happened. And until the Jaguars, Texans, and Titans up their uniform game, the Colts will continue occupying this Bets Dressed division perch.

If the Colts have any shot of winning the division, it will come down to Anthony Richardson. I’ve been banging the drum for Tony Bananas throughout the draft process and would’ve taken him first overall. He’s admittedly raw but the closest thing we’ve seen to players like Josh Allen and Cam Newton. The Jonathan Taylor* standoff looms over this team, and I’d be surprised if he plays another snap for the Colts - even with a trade not materializing before the season. While Taylor isn’t coming to save the day, Michael Pittman continues to be an underrated WR1. And keep an eye on deep ball wizard Alec Pierce as a breakout candidate. Rookie wide receiver Josh Downs is promising as well. Things may be dark now, Colts fans. But the future is bright (and has the potential to arrive early).

*My Top 5 preferred JT destinations: (1) Ravens, (2) Dolphins, (3) Eagles, (4) Bills, and (5) Bears.

The Future: Colts Win AFC South (+600)

(5) Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens are the first AFC Wild Card team. The most underrated wardrobe in the NFL truly shined in this exercise. The only thing working against them is sharing a division with so many other elite outfits. Black and purple have no business looking this good together, but it just works.*

I’ve always been a Lamar Jackson guy, and I’m more hyped for this season than any other. Todd Monken takes over as the play caller, and there appears to be a genuine commitment to letting Lamar sling the rock. Mark Andrews should continue to be the top target, but this is by far the best wide receiver corps of Lamar’s career. Zay Flowers looks like the real deal, Rashod Bateman is a difference maker if he can stay healthy, and Odell Beckham has just enough gas left in the tank. Add in a defense with elite talent at all three levels, and the Ravens are genuine Super Bowl contenders.

*Same for TCU at the college level.

The Future: Ravens Make Playoffs (-170)

(6) Cleveland Browns

The Browns are team number three from the AFC North (sensing a theme?) into the Bets Dressed playoffs. At a fundamental level, I don’t understand the hate some people have for the Browns uniforms. Classic and consistent with one of the sharpest color palettes in the league. So long as Cleveland sticks with their current uniform wardrobe, it’s hard to see them being left out of the playoffs in a uniform-based simulation.

The Browns have one of the more complete rosters in the NFL - with a big unknown at quarterback. Deshaun Watson did not play well in his return from suspension last season and was objectively outplayed by Jacoby Brissett. Cleveland’s $230 million fully guaranteed gamble continues to age poorly for reasons that go well beyond football, and bad quarterback play just amplifies things. But the Browns continue to have one of the most efficient running backs in league history. All aboard the Nick Chubb train. Plus Myles Garrett and company should continue to make life uncomfortable for opposing offenses. While I don’t have Cleveland on my Super Bowl radar, a Watson return to his Houston form will force me to recalibrate.

The Future: Browns Make Playoffs (+115)

(7) Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers round things out for the AFC North - with every team from the best dressed division in football making it into the Bets Dressed playoff picture. Pittsburgh sports one of the most iconic wardrobes in sports and pairs it perfectly with a championship pedigree. The NFL aesthetic always benefits when the Steelers are playing meaningful football in January and February.

Ever since the Pickett-to-Pickens game winner on Franco Harris Night, it’s felt like something special is cooking in Pittsburgh. Kenny Pickett is unquestionably the quarterback of the future and seems to have it. Mike Tomlin still has never finished below .500, and I don’t foresee it happening this year. The AFC is absolutely loaded, but if there’s one darkhorse team I could see crashing the Super Bowl party, it’s the Steelers.

The Future: Steelers Make Playoffs (+125)

NFC

(1) San Francisco 49ers

Like their counterpart in the AFC, the top ranked NFC team in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings emerged with home field advantage. The 49ers have a perfect wardrobe - not a false note in the bunch. And it showed as San Francisco cruised to the top seed.

While the Trey Lance saga* and the Nick Bosa contract dispute are taking up all the headlines in San Francisco, the 49ers are still a fully loaded juggernaut. With Brock Purdy at the helm last season, the 49ers won eight straight including the postseason. The run came to an end when Purdy tore his UCL in the NFC Championship Game, but the dude is undeniably a gamer. If he proves to be for real, the Niners - as they have throughout Shanahan’s tenure - will continue to be a legitimate Super Bowl threat.

*I don’t really understand the criticism of Kyle Shanahan surrounding Trey Lance. Obviously the trade didn’t work out, but I credit Shanahan and John Lynch for moving on from the sunk cost. Lance had bad luck with injuries, and the Niners stumbled on to their guy in Brock Purdy. I will forever believe that Shanahan wanted Mac Jones and relented to input from others. Big time sliding doors moment.

The Future: 49ers Win NFC West (-190)

(2) Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys haven’t been to the NFC Championship Game since the 1995 season. To say they are overdue would be an understatement. And if the Bets Dressed playoff simulation has anything to say about, they’re in a prime position to return (and then some). The Cowboys rise to No. 4 in the Power Rankings may have been a surprise to some, but I’m standing fast on their ascension. Dallas has the most complementary wardrobe in football, which allows them to serve up excellent uniform matchups all season long and into the playoffs.

In a world where Jalen Hurts exploded onto the scene with MVP and Super Bowl runner-up performances, Dak Prescott is the last man standing making Best NFC QB an actual conversation. To be fair, Jalen Hurts takes the crown at this point in time, but I think Dak will have the last laugh in the NFC East this year. The Cowboys offense is stacked. With Zeke gone, it’s officially Tony Pollard 24/7 Time. Brandin Cooks joins CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup for one of the best wide receiver trios in the league. And the offensive line continues to be a strength. On defense, Dan Quinn has everyone playing with their hair on fire. Trevon Diggs is a gambler, but you’ve got to bet money to make money. And Micah Parsons is poised to breakthrough for his elusive Defensive Player of the Year award.* Sure, Mike McCarthy may not be the most awe-inspiring coach in the league, but he does a Lombardi in his trophy case.

*In his first two seasons, Parsons logged two First Team All-Pros and back-to-back DPOY runner-ups. Hard to start career better than that. And bonus points for rocking No. 11.

The Future: Cowboys Win NFC East (+195)

(3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

We have arrived at the longest shot on this playoff picture list - the only bet with odds hitting quadruple digits. And what do I have to say to that? Good. Keep doubting Baker and the Bucs. Tampa Bay is ready to shock the world and pair their Top 5 uniform wardrobe with a Top 5 NFC finish (and preferably a Top 1 NFC South finish). In Bucco Bruce We Trust.

One of the more popular questions in NFL circles this offseason is “who will be this year’s Seahawks?” Look no further, folks. High pedigree journeyman quarterback - check. Elite wide receiver duo that people are sleeping on - check. Young running back poised to break out - check. The Bucs even brought over Dave Canales from Seattle to run the offense. The biggest thing working in Tampa Bay’s favor is the NFC South; it’s wide open and there for the taking.*

*Obligatory Achilles in Troy reference.

The Future: Buccaneers Win NFC South (+1000)

(4) Chicago Bears

Interesting development with the Bears coming out on top of the NFC North despite the Packers being higher in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings. The breaks of the game uniform wardrobe schedule simulation. I may or may not have left the radioactive orange outfit in the closet during my runthrough.

There are few people I’m rooting for more than Justin Fields. The dude is an absolute electric factory. He just needs to put it all together - especially in the passing game. And that’s where new WR1 DJ Moore comes in. Moore has flashed for years in Carolina, and I’m bullish on him taking the next step in Chicago. Bold take: Moore will be this year’s AJ Brown - an ascending wide receiver that jumps into the elite tier following a monster break out. The sneaky biggest thing going for the Bears is someone you never hear about: head coach Matt Eberflus. In his first year in the job (and with the worst roster in football), Eberflus was Top 5 in winning percentage added over expected. Get him some competent NFL players, and prepare for liftoff.

The Future: Bears Win NFC North (+380)

(5) Carolina Panthers

After doing the playoff picture simulation, I received confirmation on what I’ve already been feeling: I’m still too low on the Panthers uniform wardrobe. Brace yourselves for a bump in next year’s Power Rankings - especially if they pair the black helmet with the blue jersey. Admittedly, my appreciation for the Panthers aesthetic may have led me right into a bet that will not cash.

It’s a new era in Carolina. The Panthers moved up for the first pick in the draft and snagged Bryce Young. And he looked as good as advertised in the preseason. As for the team around him? Not so much. And to make matters worse, the team is working through a contract dispute with superstar edge rusher Brian Burns.* With that said, I trust Frank Reich and think he’s the perfect man for this job. And the defense has Top 5 potential with a boatload of talent under the stewardship of new defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero. Like the Bucs above them, the wide open NFC South is the main thing going for them. Someone’s got to win it, and we just need Carolina to make the playoffs.

*Burns just so happens to be the Bets Dressed pick for Defensive Player of the Year.

The Future: Panthers Make Playoffs (+205)

(6) Detroit Lions

The Lions may be ranked No. 21 in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings, but they reaped the benefit of me choosing their uniform combos throughout the simulation. When Detroit sticks to their primary home and away uniforms (with the appearance of their elite throwbacks and blue pants with the white jersey), they can hang with anyone aesthetically - flaws and all.

The Lions have overtaken the Bills as the NFL darling. Show me someone that isn’t pulling for Dan Campbell and the Lions, and I’ll show you a Bears, Packers, or Vikings fan. Outside of being a fan of an NFC North rival, I can’t comprehend not wanting the best for this franchise. Detroit is due, and this team is built to deliver. Campbell and GM Brad Holmes have built a roster filled with junkyard dogs ready for a knife fight. Yet offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has those same dudes operating a finely tuned sports car.* Best of both worlds. The Lions are a Wild Card team in this exercise, but a Super Bowl appearance is squarely in play.

*Detroit finished third in expected points last season.

The Future: Lions Make Playoffs (-165)

(7) Los Angeles Rams

The Rams were another team that benefited greatly from my simulation. Let’s just say the modern throwback outfit was prominently featured. As such, Los Angeles leapfrogged the higher-ranked Packers, Eagles, and Giants for the final NFC playoff spot.

It’s safe to say I’d be less surprised to see the Rams with the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft than making the playoffs this year. Matthew Stafford can’t relate to Zoomers. Cooper Kupp can’t stay healthy. And Sean McVay has one eye on a media career.* But we go where the Uniform Gods take us. Who am I to question their divine wisdom?

*Can you imagine if the Rams didn’t pull off the Super Bowl win against the Bengals? Ultimate sliding doors moment. We’d be having a very different conversation about the current state of the Rams.

The Future: Rams Make Playoffs (+310)

Dream Super Bowl Matchups (and the Bets Dressed Super Bowl Pick)

Taking the teams above, I cooked up five dream Super Bowl uniform matchups (including some finalist exactas) - culminating with the Bets Dressed Super Bowl prediction or the 2023 NFL season. Let’s dive in:

Dream Super Bowl Matchups