Bets Dressed - Wild Card Weekend - Uniform Matchups, Picks, and Prop Plays

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Wild Card Weekend has arrived.  And with it, the first ever postseason issue of the Bets Dressed newsletter.  Six matchups make up the Wild Card slate, and each one is a regular season rematch.  Don't look now, but there are some elite uniform wardrobes in this year's playoff pool.  We have a chance at a truly elite Super Bowl uniform matchup.*  But enough preamble.  Let's get this party started.

*Because I posted this, we're going to wind up with Seahawks-Jags.

A quick note on (playoff) methodology.

I’m still analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best.  And just because a team’s wardrobe is ranked higher in the Power Rankings doesn't mean that it will automatically win the uniform matchup.  It's what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.

We're not about to shame teams that made the playoffs.  So we're only crowning the best matchup of the weekend from here on out.  And still betting the over. 

Don’t forget the Triple Mismatch Club. I’m making three units plays whenever the best dressed team in the matchup is a member of the Club (different colored helmet, jersey, and pants). And nine units plays if both members of the week’s best matchup are members.

Keep an eye out for a “NOTE” here and there where teams have not fully unveiled what they will be wearing before the writing of this issue. I’ll make my best guess as to their outfit, and it won’t affect my ability to pick a winner. I’ll also try to update after the fact if possible so each weekly issue can be a reference point for what a team wore on a given week.

Regular Season Recap.

9-7 in the last week of the regular season.  And with that, we did it.  We landed on the right side of .500 for the year.  137-130-6.  The aesthetic edge exists - at least for the time being.  We've been red hot the last four weeks (42-22-1).  Let's keep it going for four more and end this thing in style.

Wild Card Weekend Uniform Matchups and Picks.

Seahawks at 49ers is the first stop on the Road to Glendale.  As far as uniform matchups featuring the Seahawks go, this one isn't too shabby.  The 49ers are the gold standard of the NFC (pun intended).  And while the Seahawks have a hypermodern-panelist template, white over gray is my favorite outfit in their current wardrobe.  This one will never compete for best of the week, but it's a sneaky nice matchup to start the 2022 playoffs.  San Francisco runs away with it, but thumbs up overall.

On paper, the Niners should run away with the football game as well.  San Francisco has the best defense in the league, an offense that's clicking on all cylinders, and a seventh-round rookie quarterback playing like a seasoned pro.  But divisional games are always tricky.  The Seahawks already lost to the 49ers twice this season, and it's extremely difficult in the NFL to beat a team three times in one season.  My upset alarm bells are ringing.  But in the uniform gods we trust.

The Pick: 49ers -9 (-115)

Chargers at Jaguars.  Now this is a uniform matchup I can get behind.  The runner up for best of the week.  The Chargers road whites are as good as it gets - with white or gold pants.  And the Jaguars pleasantly surprised me by breaking out the best uniform in their wardrobe: a Triple Mismatch Club delight of black, teal, and white (nice little rhyme there).  The Chargers are the clear choice, but kudos to Jacksonville for making me put some thought into it.

The runner up for best uniform matchup of the week is also my runner up for best game of the week.  Justin Herbert vs. Trevor Lawrence.*  Two young guns with limitless upside piloting top 10 passing attacks.  What's not to like?  The winner of this one may even make a dark horse run to the Super Bowl.  The Chargers will be without Mike Williams thanks to Brandon Staley's decision to play starters in a pointless game in Week 18.  But Los Angeles has been without him before, and it hasn't stopped them from amassing the third most yards through the air in the league.  And with the Jaguars giving up the fifth most passing yards, Justin Herbert and the Chargers should be in a position to light up the night's sky.

*Don't look now, but the AFC Divisional Round is very likely to feature Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and the last man standing between Herbert and Lawrence.  Sign me up.

The Pick: Chargers -1.5 (-115)

Dolphins at Bills.  To no one's surprise, the Bills continue to force the blue unitard.*  As much as I'd rather see Buffalo in blue over white, the Bills are still the best dressed team in this one.  Miami is a poster child of the Wasted Talent tier of the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings, and Buffalo is the clear choice as a result.

Thanks to the injury bug, we're in for a bit of a stinker with Dolphins-Bills.  Tua continues to be out with a concussion, and the rest of the Dolphins roster is littered with banged up starters.  Mike McDaniel did a commendable job getting this Miami team to the playoffs in his first season, and the Dolphins have played like one of the best team's in the league at full strength.  But Skylar Thompson is no match for the buzzsaw Bills.  This one should get ugly in a hurry.

*It's all but certain that Buffalo would wear this outfit in the Super if given the opportunity.  Lucky for us, the NFC will be the home team in Super Bowl LVII.  So unless the NFC champion is the Cowboys or Buccaneers, the Bills will be forced to keep the all-blue ensemble in the closet.

The Pick: Bills -13 (-110)

Giants at Vikings is like a yin and yang matchup with a purple bodysuit twist.  As I've said ad nauseam at this point, the icy white Giants would be better served with gray pants.  But they're still heads and shoulders better dressed than the all-purple Vikings.  New York gets the nod.

Talk about a game that could go either way.  The Vikings are 13-4, and I still have no idea if they are any good.  And the Giants have been a nice Cinderella story that no one really believes in.  But someone has to win this game.  Minnesota won the first meeting between these two less than a month ago by a score of 27-24.  Brian Daboll, a shortlist contender for Coach of the Year, may be the X factor here.  Few coaches are better in rematches.  The Giants are 3-0 against the spread in rematches this season.  And here come the Vikings with rematch opportunity number four.  

The Pick: Giants +3 (-110)

It's deja vu all over again.  Ravens at Bengals for the second week in a row.  We were white Bengals pants away from best of the week last week.  And we're purple Ravens pants away from best of the week this week.  So close yet so far.  The Bengals are rocking one of the best outfits in their elite wardrobe.  But the Ravens leave a lot to be desired in white over black.  Cincinnati all the way.

Once again, no Lamar Jackson for the Ravens.*  And Snoop Huntley is banged up as well.  If Huntley can't go, this one is over before it began.  But even if he does, the Bengals should still take care of business.  Divisional matchups can always go sideways, but the fates seem to be aligning for the Bills and Bengals to meet in the Divisional Round in Buffalo.  

*It sure feels like we've seen Lamar take his last snap as a Raven.  Would love to see him in Detroit or Atlanta.  And as I've said before, keep an eye on Miami.

The Pick: Bengals -8.5 (-110)

Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play

Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Wild Card Weekend.

We've come full circle.  From Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 1 to Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Wild Card Weekend, the Cowboys and Buccaneers do not disappoint.*  Tampa Bay always looks sharp in white over pewter, and they get bonus points for forcing the Cowboys to wear blue on the road.  Speaking of Dallas, I'm a big fan of going white pants with this ensemble.  Not only is it an excellent member of the Triple Mismatch Club, it brings the jersey and pants together and allows the silver helmet to stand out.  If this matchup is an indicator of the 2022 playoff aesthetic, we're in for a well dressed couple of weeks.

The NFL saved the best game for last on Wild Card Weekend.  The Cowboys and Buccaneers are both teams that can get hot and win it all.  Tampa Bay has looked rough for large swathes of the season.  But never doubt a Tom Brady team in the playoffs.  The man is 35-12 in his playoff career and has hoisted seven Lombardi trophies.  Dak Prescott ... has not.  But it's all about the points for our purposes.  The Cowboys are the third highest scoring team in the league, and both teams combine to average 46 points per game.  So if Dallas and Tampa Bay can be average, we'll be on the right side of the number.

 *In a perfect world, the Bets Dressed newsletter will be around for decades to come.  It'll be fun to look back and see how often teams meet for a best matchup in the regular season and a best matchup in the postseason (especially when wearing different outfits).

The Pick: Over 45.5 (-110)

Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play

Club SDR - Wild Card Weekend Prop Plays.

The Single Digit Revolution lives on through the playoffs.  Let's see if this trio of skill position players can deliver.

Ja'Marr Chase - Over 76.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

The Raven killer himself.  30 catches, 461 yards, and 2 touchdowns in four career games against Baltimore.  He cleared the number with ease last week.  Look for history to repeat.

Isaiah McKenzie - Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Things might get out of hand in a hurry when the Bills take on the depleted Dolphins.  So look for the Bills to lean on those further down the depth chart to protect their starters.  While Stefon Diggs is nice and warm on the sideline in the fourth quarter, Isaiah McKenzie should be out there getting us paid.

Travis Etienne - Over 75.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Heck of a pseudo rookie season for Travis Etienne.  His 1,125 rushing yards on the year were enough to land him in the top eight for the league.  And he's cleared the number three of the last four weeks.  The Chargers gave up the second most rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.  So Etienne is in line for a heck of a postseason as well.

The Gridiron Uniform Database.

The uniform graphics you see here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out.  It is my favorite site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casual fans alike. This is especially the case during the season. I check the site multiple times a day to keep tabs on who’s wearing what.

Drop me a line.

You can always find me on Twitter at NFL Fashion Advice (@fashion_nfl) or via email at [email protected]. Come talk uniforms and all things football, and let me know what you think of the newsletter.

Coming Attractions.

The postseason fun is just beginning.  We'll be back same time next week for Divisional Round Weekend.

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And always remember: Look Good. Feel Good. Pay Good.