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Bets Dressed - Week 7 - Uniform Matchups and Picks
The Week 7 main slate is upon us. Cards on the table: I'm not loving the uniform matchups this week. A lot of strong uniforms squaring off against a lot of weak uniforms, and that brings down the quality of the week overall. But there aren't many truly awful matchups. And there are still some hidden gems.
Our Thursday Night Football win streak came to a halt this week as our under play for the worst matchup of the week didn't have a chance. The Saints and Cardinals easily cleared the total, but it's hard to feel good about either team going forward. The Saints season feels over, and the Cardinals are a house divided. At this point, I wouldn't be shocked if Kliff and Kyler wind up elsewhere next season. But enough about Thursday, let's look ahead to today's fun.
But first ... my apologies for the technical difficulties.
Before diving into today's uniform analysis, I would like to apologize to the people. Thursday's edition of the Bets Dressed newsletter was posted to Twitter but was not emailed out to subscribers. This problem is affecting Revue users across the platform, and it does not appear that the issue has been resolved. So this edition may run into the same problem.
Bear with me as I explore alternatives and potentially migrate over to a new platform to prevent this from happening in the future.
Thank you for your patience. And more than anything, thank you for reading.
A quick note on methodology.
As always, I’m analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best. And just because a team’s wardrobe is ranked higher in the Power Rankings doesn’t mean that it will automatically win the uniform matchup. It’s what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.
I’ll also be crowning the best matchup of the week and shaming the worst matchup of the week. It’s the over for the sharpest matchup and the under for the dullest.
And don’t forget the Triple Mismatch Club. I’m making three units plays whenever the best dressed team in the matchup is a member of the Club (different colored helmet, jersey, and pants). And nine units plays if both members of the week’s best matchup are members.
Keep an eye out for a “NOTE” here and there where teams have not fully unveiled what they will be wearing before the writing of this issue. I’ll make my best guess as to their outfit, and it won’t affect my ability to pick a winner. I’ll also try to update after the fact if possible so each weekly issue can be a reference point for what a team wore on a given week.
Week 7 Uniform Matchups and Picks.
We're starting on a high note. Nothing screams football in late October like a glorious uniform matchup featuring orange, purple, and black. Halloween has come early with this one. The Browns white-over-orange look is not my personal favorite,* but it's undeniably sharp. And the Ravens continue to defy the rules of the aesthetic universe by melding purple and black in a surprisingly effective way. If the Ravens went with white pants, I'd be tempted to make them the pick here. But the Browns get the narrowest of nods.
The Ravens became the latest surprise victim of the New York Football Giants last week. And the Browns can't seem to catch a break - losers of three straight and four of their last five. Both need to mix up the mojo and get back in the win column. The Ravens appear to have the edge on paper. Lamar Jackson versus Jacoby Brissett is not a fair fight. Plus the Ravens stingy run defense has given up the 7th fewest rushing yards in the league and should be an antidote to the Nick Chubb experience. But the Ravens have been vulnerable through the air and Amari Cooper and Co. could be in for a nice day. I'll never complain about getting points in an AFC North slugfest.
*I prefer the white-over-brown road uniform for Cleveland.
The Pick: Browns +6.5 (-110)
Lions at Cowboys keeps with the theme of the week: bad uniform against good uniform. The Lions wardrobe has grown on me all season, and I was looking forward to this one as a sneaky good uniform matchup. So I was disappointed to learn the Lions were breaking out the blue unitards (an outfit we haven't seen since 2020). The Cowboys home whites are always a delight, and they run away with the matchup here.
Dak is back. Cooper Rush performed admirably in relief, but it was always a matter of when, not if, Prescott would return as the starter. The Cowboys are positioned well at 4-2, but they play in the ultra competitive NFC East with the 5-1 Giants and 6-0 Eagles ahead of them. The 1-4 Lions are coming off the bye and have left us wanting more coming off the Hard Knocks hype entering the year. But they've been competitive in almost every game this season (other than the 29-0 shellacking suffered against the Patriots). I'm most excited to see the Dallas pass rush against the Detroit offensive line. Winner of that battle in the trenches likely escapes with the win (and the cover).
The Pick: Cowboys -6.5 (-110)
Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play
The fate of this overall matchup may just turn on the Panthers choice of pants. The Buccaneers red-over-pewter look is incredibly sharp. And I'm higher on the Panthers than others. So this is a sneaky good matchup if the Panthers wear white pants. But if the Panthers go black pants, the clash with the pewter will be unavoidable. No matter what the Panthers decide, the Bucs are the clear best outfit here.
Tampa Bay was embarrassed in Pittsburgh last week. And the lowly, CMC-less Panthers will be the object in which the Bucs to take out their frustrations. The massive point spread reflects that fact, and it's hard to envision any outcome where the Panthers pull off an upset here. It's a lot of points to lay on the road, but I'm thankful to be on the Tom Brady side over the PJ Walker side - regardless of the spread.
The Pick: Buccaneers -13.5 (-105)
NOTE - The Panthers have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
UPDATE - Black pants for the Panthers.
When a Top 10 wardrobe is squaring off against the worst wardrobe in the league, there's not much to think about. But I'm awfully hard on the Commanders, so I will say this: the burgundy outfit is by far the best in the their wardrobe (for whatever that is worth). But they should take notes from the Packers and add some yellow pants to the mix.
Takes from last week that aged horribly: "I'm glad to be on the Packers side in this one. This feels like a monster get-right spot." Woof. Yet I'm nothing if not stubborn. I refuse to throw in the towel on a Packers team so long as Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback. And the Commanders are being served up to them in a . . . wait for it . . . monster get-right spot. Second time's the charm. Let's see if the Packers deliver this time.
The Pick: Packers -4.5 (-115)
NOTE - The Commanders have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
UPDATE - White pants confirmed for the Commanders.
With this matchup against the Titans, the Colts are about to face a divisional opponent for the fifth time in the first seven games of the season. The only remaining divisional game on their schedule is against the Texans in Week 18. Bizarre to say the least. But I digress. With all of these games against the poorly dressed AFC South, the Colts have been an easy uniform choice. And it's no different here. The Colts icy whites are as classic and clean as can be. The Titans powder blue jersey is their best, but that's not saying much. Their entire wardrobe is an eyesore.
Winner of this AFC South battle will be in sole control of first place in the division. The Titans are coming off the bye and have won three straight since starting 0-2. The Colts appear to have righted the ship themselves, and the passing game finally came together last week. This one feels like a real toss up, so I'm perfectly content that the uniform gods have steered us toward the Colts - and the points.
The Pick: Colts +2.5 (-110)
The Bengals are dressed for success, and the Falcons are in danger of erasing the good will earned from their fantastic throwbacks last week. When the Falcons unveiled their cringeworthy uniform redesign, red pants were included as part of the wardrobe. While red pants would not fix the overall issues, they would go a long way in making this matchup more palatable. Cincinnati is the no brainer pick here.
This is a sneaky fun football game. We all expected the Bengals to have an exciting offense filled with playmakers, but the Falcons have been a pleasant surprise this season. Fantasy football owners can certainly complain about Arthur Smith and his usage of Kyle Pitts,* but the man is winning football games. And his run-first offense is getting results. This one might be closer than expected.
*Pitts finally found the endzone last week against the 49ers. That's only the second touchdown of his career (and the first on American soil). Fun fact: Pitts has only scored touchdowns in games where red is a featured element of his uniform (the glorious red helmet throwbacks last week and the abysmal red on black gradients last year). Go figure.
The Pick: Bengals -6.5 (-115)
Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play
You shouldn't look a gift horse in the mouth, and you shouldn't say anything too critical about the Jaguars when they treat us to teal jerseys. So I won't complain too much about the Jags; I just wish they went white pants instead of black. And the green socks make the pants more capri-ish than they need to be. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, my only wish for the Giants would be the return of gray pants to this outfit. But my words keep falling on deaf ears. The Giants are the choice here.
It's time to start calling the Giants the New York Rodney Dangerfields because they don't get no respect. The Giants are 5-1, yet they're underdogs on the road against the Jaguars (losers of three straight and 2-4 on the year). Don't get me wrong, I understand that these spreads are set by oddsmakers far more intelligent and prophetic than I am. But this just feels wrong. Keep underestimating Daboll and the boys at your peril. I like them to keep the party going in Duval. So I'll take the points if Vegas insists.
The Pick: Giants +3 (-110)
Texans at Raiders is another prime example of bad uniform against good uniform this week. The Texans are perpetually underwhelming and in desperate need of a redesign. While the Raiders are as sharp as it gets. And the easy choice here.
There's no doubt that the Texans are in the Bryce Young sweepstakes. But what about the Raiders? They're playing at a level higher than a 1-4 team. But it doesn't feel like Derek Carr is enough to lead the silver and black to the promised land. I like the Raiders in a bounce back spot here off the bye, but it's hard to feel too good about them long term.
The Pick: Raiders -6.5 (-115)
NOTE - The Texans have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
UPDATE - White pants confirmed for the Texans.
The Jets cannot quit the white-over-black look. This will be four games in a row (after wearing their icy white outfit three games in a row). While I despise the uniform, it's hard to argue with the logic of sticking with the uniform you've won with in three straight. The Broncos primary orange outfit is the best in their current wardrobe and the easy choice here.
Could Brett Rypien be just what the doctor ordered for the Broncos? Things have been spiraling in Denver. Perhaps a backup at the helm will let them get back to basics: pound the rock and keep playing great defense. I don't know which New York development is more surprising: the Giants at 5-1 or the Jets at 4-2. I lean toward the Jets. And while I'm all in on the Giants, I still am skeptical about the Jets. They're going to be 14-2 heading into Week 18, and I still won't be sold. I think Rypien gets it done in an ugly one.
The Pick: Broncos +1.5 (-110)
Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play
Chiefs at 49ers. The game of the day. And two elite uniforms. But a bit too much clash to be in consideration for best of the week. The Niners throwbacks are as good as it gets. An example of drop shadow gone right. I especially appreciate how the black drop shadow provides justification for the black ringlet around the SF logo. The Chiefs continue to be the greatest delayer in releasing their uniform of the week, so we don't know for sure what combination they're wearing. But I find that I like their away whites even more than their home reds. San Francisco is the pick, but high individual marks all around.
Christian McCaffrey is a 49er. As a picker of the Niners to win the NFC, I was delighted to hear about the trade (even if I think they gave up way too much for an oft injured running back). It signals that the Niners are all in this season, and I'm excited to see what Kyle Shanahan has in store with Deebo Samuel and CMC in the same offense (and the same backfield from time to time). As for this game specifically, the Chiefs are coming off a hard fought loss against the buzzsaw Bills. But it's out of the frying pan and into the fire. San Francisco is getting a number of players back from injury - especially on defense. They'll be out for blood after an embarrassing loss to the Falcons.
The Pick: 49ers +1 (-105)
Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play
NOTE - The Chiefs have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
UPDATE - Red pants confirmed for the Chiefs.
Of the two Chargers color rush options, give me the navy over the royal blue. I especially like the helmet that's paired with this navy ensemble. And while I generally dislike what the Seahawks wear, kudos to them for leaving the navy pants at home. I don't know why they even have gray pants in their wardrobe, but anything other than navy is a win for the overall matchup. Chargers by a comfortable margin here.
The Geno Smith Seahawks keep finding ways to win. At 3-3, they're tied for the NFC West lead with the Rams and 49ers. I think it's time people start giving Pete Carroll the respect he deserves as one of the best coaches in the NFL. But the Chargers may be too much for the Cinderella Seahawks to handle. Justin Herbert has gritted his way through a broken rib cartilage injury to keep the Chargers neck and neck with the Chiefs in the AFC West. And he has an appealing matchup against the Seattle pass defense.
The Pick: Chargers -4.5 (-110)
People are going to get sick of me bringing up the need for an NFL Uniform Schedule Czar, but every week there is another great example. And Bears at Patriots may be the best example of the year. This would have been the perfect game to bring out the Patriots red throwbacks. Not only would it have been the clear choice for best matchup of the week, but the Patriots would have had a chance to rework the uniform mojo and avenge their loss in Super Bowl XX. And to add insult to injury, the heavens aligned for Bill Belichick to have the opportunity to pass George Halas on the all-time coaching wins list against the Bears. Talk about serendipity. And talk about a missed uniform opportunity. Oh well. Beggars can't be choosers. The Patriots do desperately need to introduce gray and red pants options. The navy unitards have overstayed their welcome. Give the people some options. Thankfully, the Bears road whites are flawless.
It should be against the law to serve up Justin Fields and the Bears offensive line to Belichick and the Patriots. The Patriots have given up 15 points combined in their last two games. It's hard to see a positive outcome for the Bears offense. But we go where the uniform gods lead us. And 8 points is a healthy amount. Hopefully the Bears defense rises to the challenge and keeps this one interesting.
The Pick: Bears +8 (-110)
NOTE - The Patriots have yet to unveil their choice of pants. New England has yet to officially unveil gray pants, but they were in the team's style guide. I'm assuming we'll get the navy unitards again and for the foreseeable future, but gray pants would be a nice surprise.
UPDATE - Gray pants for the Patriots (silver according to the team). Rejoice!
Worst NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 7.
We already covered the worst of the week in the Thursday issue. Check out the full breakdown here.
The Pick: Under 44 (-110)
Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 7.
It's always a treat when the Dolphins break out the throwbacks. I was rooting for the white throwbacks in this one because it's a slightly better uniform matchup with the Steelers in black, but that's just picking nits. In a relatively down uniform week, this is clearly the choice for best of the week.
I was all the way out on the Steelers in last week's newsletter, and they answered with a surprise victory over the Bucs. It's a good reminder to never count out a Mike Tomlin* squad. The Dolphins plateaued at 3-0 and crashed back down to Earth losing their last three games. But they get Tua back this week, and it's time to see if he can return Mike McDaniel's offense to its full capabilities. The Dolphins averaged 28 points per game in the first three weeks and have averaged 16 points per game in the last three weeks. The Steelers are averaging 16 points per game this year. If the Tua offense is back for Miami, the over is in play.
*You cannot argue with Tomlin's greatness. The man has never had a losing record as the Steelers coach, and he's the model leader every franchise dreams of. But I've noticed his Steelers teams have a tendency to play to their competition - for better or worse. They'll shock a Super Bowl favorite one week and inexplicably lose to a basement dweller the next.
The Pick: Over 44.5 (-110)
Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play
The Gridiron Uniform Database.
The uniform graphics you see here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. It is my favorite site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casual fans alike. This is especially the case during the season. I check the site multiple times a day to keep tabs on who’s wearing what.
Drop me a line.
You can always find me on Twitter at NFL Fashion Advice (@fashion_nfl) or via email at [email protected]. Come talk uniforms and all things football, and let me know what you think of the newsletter.
Coming Attractions.
We’ll be right back here in just a few days for Week 8 with the Thursday Night Football Uniform Matchup and some Single Digit Revolution fantasy plays.
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