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Bets Dressed - Week 5 - Thursday Night Football Uniform Matchup and Player Props

Welcome to Week 5. Another solid uniform slate - present company not included. The Bears and Commanders delivered the worst of the year on a Thursday night last season. And they’re back for the sequel.* With bad things coming in threes, I can only assume we’ll get the end of the trilogy some Thursday next year.

Ladies and gentlemen, the Commanders Strike Back Bowl!

*As Michael Scott said, fool me once - strike one. But fool me twice - strike three.

A quick note on methodology.

As always, I’m analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best. And just because a team is ranked higher in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings doesn’t mean it will automatically win the uniform matchup. It’s what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.

Looking back at Week 4.

Following up our best week of the season with our worst. 6-10 on the week and 31-31-2 on the season. Perfectly balanced. As all things should be.

Thursday Night Football Uniform Matchup and Worst Uniform Matchup of Week 5.

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

How does the saying go? Revenge is a dish best served radioactive? After the Bears blinded us with their dreadful orange uniforms last year, the Commanders decided to return the favor with - for my money - the worst uniform in the league. Between the obnoxious patches, the bizarre snakeskin camo sleeves and stripes, and (worst of all) the front and rear helmet logos, the Commanders blackouts are a disaster. The Bears uniforms are sharp on their own, but navy helmet and navy pants make for a dark and dreary showdown.

This may be a game quality low point for the young season.* The Bears have been nothing short of pathetic, and, if reports are to be believed, Matt Eberflus is coaching for his job in this one. The Commanders have shown flashes, but I’m still far from sold on their playoff contender status. For a game this gross (aesthetically and otherwise), it just feels right to bet the under.

*Last year, these two combined for 19 points.

The Pick: Under 44.5

NOTE - The Bears have yet to reveal their uniform. Nothing would be funnier than the orange uniform. And nothing would be better than white pants. But the Bears haven’t gone icy white since 2009.

Club SDR - Week 5 Player Props.

Speaking of perfectly balanced, our 1-2 performance in Week 4 brings us to 6-6 on the Single Digit Revolution season. Hoping this trio gets us to the right side of .500.

Justin Fields - Over 46.5 Rushing Yards

Things can’t get much worse for Mr. Fields. Four weeks in, the Chicago season is all but over, and the writing is on the wall that he will not be their quarterback of the future. Like a cornered animal, base instincts start to take over. And there’s nothing more instinctual for Fields than being the most explosive running quarterback in the league.* The Bears need to pull out all the stops in this one. Most importantly, they need to let Fields do what he does best. He cleared this number 11 times last year and is batting .500 this year. I like him to do it again in Washington.

*For my money, Lamar still holds the crown for best and shiftiest running quarterback. But if we’re talking explosive plays, give me Fields.

David Montgomery - Over 60.5 Rushing Yards

While all the hype in the Lions running game has been focused on rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, Montgomery has safely been the more relied-upon (and productive) option. Detroit has force fed him the three games he’s been active (averaging 23 carries per game). I expect the trend to hold against the lowly Panthers, who have given up the sixth most rushing yards in the league at a clip of 4.7 yards per carry.

Josh Dobbs - Over 196.5 Passing Yards

Dobbs has been one of the feel-good stories of the season. The NFL journeyman has bounced around in the league since 2017 and has finally landed in a place with a meaningful opportunity to start. So far, he has risen to the occasion and then some. Dobbs is Top 10 in passer rating, QBR, and completion percentage - all while not throwing a single interception. He’s only averaging 204 passing yards per game, but I expect this game script to flow similarly to the 49ers game last week where he threw for 265 yards. And the Bengals defense has been one of the big disappointments of 2023 - 25th in expected points at the quarter mark.

The Gridiron Uniform Database.

The uniform graphics you see here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. Best site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casuals alike.

Coming Attractions.

Keep an eye out for the Week 5 full slate breakdown to drop Sunday morning. Because we live in a world without an NFL uniform scheduling czar, we’re at the mercy of the teams deciding and announcing their uniform combos each week. Where it’s not 100% clear before posting, I’ll make a best guess and update after the fact for posterity.

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