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- Bets Dressed - Week 4 - Uniform Matchups and Picks
Bets Dressed - Week 4 - Uniform Matchups and Picks
Grab your cup of Earl Grey, pull up a chair, and settle in. It's time to break down the Week 4 slate - kicking off bright and early from foggy London Town.
Can't think of a better way to have started Week 4 than with the unforgettable whiteout in Cincinnati. The White Bengal outfits delivered and then some. Plus it never hurts to start 1-0 (and go 3 for 3 in our Club SDR props). White Bengal Forever.
A quick note on methodology.
As always, I’m analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best. And just because a team’s wardrobe is ranked higher in the Power Rankings doesn’t mean that it will automatically win the uniform matchup. It’s what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.
I’ll also be crowning the best matchup of the week and shaming the worst matchup of the week. It’s the over for the sharpest matchup and the under for the dullest.
And don’t forget the Triple Mismatch Club. I’m making three units plays whenever the best dressed team in the matchup is a member of the Club (different colored helmet, jersey, and pants). And nine units plays if both members of the week’s best matchup are members.
Keep an eye out for a “NOTE” here and there where teams have not fully unveiled what they will be wearing before the writing of this issue (this is especially the case now that we've reached the London games). I’ll make my best guess as to their outfit, and it won’t affect my ability to pick a winner. I’ll also try to update after the fact if possible so each weekly issue can be a reference point for what a team wore on a given week.
Week 4 Uniform Matchups and Picks.
This was a strong contender for worst of the week. The green clash is undeniable. But I'm giving credit to the Jaguars for going with teal pants. The best outfits for the Jaguars involve the Triple Mismatch Club combinations of black, teal, and white. The Eagles outfits are far from my favorite, but they continue to have one of the best helmet logos out there. This was a closer call than expected, but the black-white-teal Jaguars are not enough to overcome the midnight green Eagles at home.
Doug Pederson returns* to Philadelphia in the most unexpectedly great football game of the season. The Eagles are the last undefeated team in the NFL. And the Jaguars are second in the league in DVOA, behind only the buzzsaw Bills. The Eagles are laying a lot of points. But until they show any signs of weakness, I'll be content to back their side.
*Like when Proximo returns to Rome in Gladiator and pays his respects to the Marcus Aurelius statue, I like to think that Doug does the same with the Philly Special statue at the Linc.
The Pick: Eagles -6.5 (-110)
Chargers-Texans is emblematic of most of the matchups this week: from here until the Sunday night game, there is little difficulty in picking the best dressed team. My love for the Chargers is already well known, and its time for a Texans update. I do wish the Texans would try out their new red helmet with the blue jersey. The helmet itself looks sharp, and a bit of contrast would go a long way. But looks like we're stuck with blue on blue and red on red for the foreseeable future in Houston.
Things are not going well for the Bets Dressed pick for Super Bowl champion. The Chargers have been decimated by injuries. Young star left tackle, elite edge defender, and WR1 are all out. And Justin Herbert is playing with broken rib cartilage. The lowly Texans couldn't come at a better time. But don't take anything for granted. Houston won this matchup last season, and they could be frisky at home.
The Pick: Chargers -5.5 (-115)
NOTE - The Chargers have yet to unveil white or yellow pants. They lost in Houston wearing yellow pants last year. They may want to change up the mojo.
UPDATE - White pants confirmed.
Like a car crash you cannot look away from, the black Commanders uniforms have arrived, and we all must bear witness. Without a doubt, these crimes against uniformity are among the worst in NFL history. My feelings on them are already well known, so I won't dwell on the point too long. But the Commanders redesign still blows my mind: they threw every bad uniform trope at the wall and it all stuck. I didn't think a team could screw up a helmet as bad as the Jaguars two-tone look. But the front "W" logo makes it a conversation. Picks don't get easier than this: Cowboys by a very long mile.
I said last week Cooper Rush was everything you wanted in a backup quarterback. At what point is he everything you want in a starting quarterback? I'm not saying there should be a quarterback controversy in Dallas. When Dak is healthy, he's the guy. But I've seen enough to know that Rush should be a starter in this league. More than anything, the Cowboys are thriving up front defensively. Micah Parsons and the Dallas pass rush pressured Daniel Jones 24 times last week. Best of luck, Carson Wentz. You're going to need it.
The Pick: Cowboys -3 (-110)
Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play
Sticking with the trend here, we have another easy uniform decision. The ultramodern Seahawks still manage navy overload when on the road in white. The Lions may have their flaws, but the Honolulu blue makes up for it (for the most part). And they're the choice here.
No D'Andre Swift today for the Lions, but Jamaal Williams should fill in admirably. Only the Texans have given up more rushing yards than the Seahawks. The Lions offense has impressed overall to start the season. But it's time for that success to translate to wins. The Seahawks win over Russ and the Broncos seemed like a Week 1 mirage at the time, and the last two weeks have only reinforced that impression.
The Pick: Lions -3.5 (-105)
Browns at Falcons is the yin and yang matchup of the week. White on white visits black on black. Of all the Browns primary looks, this is likely the worst one in the wardrobe. With that said, they're still night and day better than the Falcons. Another easy choice this week.
The Browns are one Nick Chubb unnecessary touchdown away from being 3-0. Jacoby Brissett has played admirably. And Chubb and Myles Garrett have been the stars of the show. No Garrett this week as he recovers from injuries sustained in a car accident. But expect Chubb to keep running wild in Atlanta. The Falcons have been in every game they've played this season, so don't be surprised if this one is close throughout.
The Pick: Browns -1 (-115)
Bills at Ravens could've been a sneaky good uniform matchup, but the Ravens decided to bring out the color rush outfits. Non-white unitards don't really do it for me in general, but I especially dislike the Ravens color rush version. The Ravens usually look so sharp because the black and purple work together when they shouldn't. But the gold numbers of this look cause the black helmets to seem out of place. The Bills icy white look is as good as it gets. And they run away with this one.
When you have a game (and quarterbacks) this good, uniforms admittedly take a back seat. Josh Allen against Lamar Jackson is as exciting of a quarterback duel as you'll find in the NFL. Two weeks ago, I dubbed the 2022 MVP race as the Triumvirate (Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert). It's two weeks later, and I'm feeling sheepish about not including Lamar (and Jalen Hurts) in that group. This Bills-Ravens battle will be an important chapter in this year's story, and it wouldn't shock me if we find themselves watching Part II in January.
The Pick: Bills -3 (-115)
This one really hammers home the need for an NFL Uniform Scheduling Czar. The Jets started their season wearing their icy white look three weeks in a row. But now that they're scheduled to face the black-helmet-and-black-jersey-wearing Steelers, they decide now is the time to unleash the black pants. Call me Mugatu because I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. The Jets green-white-black look is one of the worst outfits in the league on its own, but it creates a truly radioactive uniform matchup when paired with a team like the Steelers that features so much black on its own. If it wasn't for the international incident across the pond, this would've been the choice for worst matchup of the week.*
Zach Wilson returns this week to face off against a Steelers defense that really misses TJ Watt. Mitch Trubisky is still the guy in Pittsburgh. And per Mike Tomlin, the answer to whether Kenny Pickett is coming is "definitely no". We've all seen this movie before. It's a matter of time before Pickett gets the nod. Not that anyone asked me, but I would've had Kenny Pickett out there three weeks ago. And I certainly would have him out there now with extra rest against the Jets. But what do I know? I'm just the guy lobbing uniform takes, half baked pop culture references, and a healthy dose of snark from the cheap seats.
*Important reminder: teams that have good uniforms are not immune from finding themselves in the worst matchup of the week. While teams like the Steelers may be sharply dressed on their own, uniform matchups are heavily affected by how the outfits complement each other.
The Pick: Steelers -3.5 (-110)
The Colts classic blues never get old. And the Titans entire wardrobe leaves much to be desired. Another easy choice: Colts it is.
The Colts finally got into the win column last week after taking down the mighty Chiefs. Matt Ryan and company hope to keep the magic going with Tennessee in town. Entering the week, no team has given up more passing touchdowns than the Titans. And I think Ryan extends his multi-touchdown game streak to two. Fantasy owners everywhere are waiting for the Derrick Henry and/or Jonathan Taylor monster game(s). TBD if either arrives this week.
The Pick: Colts -3.5 (-105)
A number of people called for the Cardinals-Panthers matchup to be the worst of the week, but it wasn't in real contention for me. Don't get me wrong, I have the Cardinals as the second worst wardrobe in the NFL. And the Panthers don't even crack the top half of my Power Rankings. But this matchup itself doesn't offend me. If the Cardinals get their acts together, this could one day even be a sneaky good uniform matchup. For the time being, it's just a forgettable and underwhelming matchup (both aesthetically and on the field).
We've got a battle between first overall pick, Heisman Trophy winning Oklahoma gunslingers. Kyler Murray is at least a tier above Baker Mayfield, but both quarterbacks have had their shares of ups and down in the NFL. And the loser of this one will find themselves at 1-3 and all but eliminated from serious contention this season.
The Pick: Panthers -1 (-105)
Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play IF the Panthers go with black pants
NOTE - Cardinals and Panthers have yet to unveil their pants. Here's to hoping the Cardinals steer clear of the red unitard. The Panthers surprised me with black pants last week, but now I'm wondering if they'll try to keep the magic alive and run back the outfit to get a winning streak going. They may even shock me again and go with silver pants.
UPDATE - Red pants for the Cardinals, and white pants for the Panthers.
I said it on Twitter earlier this week, and I'll say it again here. This is a sneaky great uniform matchup. Shades of Super Bowl XXXI. The helmet matchup is especially strong. Plus unique color palettes that complement each other well. The Packers are the clear choice head to head, but this one is going to be a pleasure to see on the screen.
As for the game on the field, there's much less to be excited about. Mac Jones is out for the Patriots, and Brian Hoyer gets the nod at quarterback. I've been hesitant to give up on the Patriots, but their season is starting to spiral a bit. The Packers have some limitations in their receiving corps, but any post-Week 1 concerns about the demise of Green Bay have (rightly) dissipated. The Packers should roll here, but crazier things have happened.
The Pick: Packers -9 (-110)
The Raiders sure need this one, and what better outfit to get it done than the classic Silver and Black. The Broncos road whites consistently underwhelm and almost completely omit the color orange. Raiders are the pick here.
There is literally no worse way to start than 0-3. But if there is any solace for the Raiders, they've been in every game they've played (and gave the game away against the Cardinals in Week 2). Things haven't gone too smoothly for the Broncos either, yet they are somehow 2-1. This feels like a get right spot for the Silver and Black. If not, insert the Job from Arrested Development "I've Made a Huge Mistake" meme for Davante Adams.
The Pick: Raiders -2.5 (-115)
The Chiefs and Bucs meet for the first time since Super Bowl LV on Sunday Night Football. Tampa Bay is running back their outfits from the big game and hoping for a similar result to the 31-9 thrashing of Kansas City. As noted below, the Chiefs have yet to reveal whether they're wearing white or red pants. It would hurt the overall matchup, but it wouldn't shock me if the Chiefs went red pants to change up the mojo and avoid a Super Bowl LV uniform repeat. If the Chiefs go red pants, the choice would easily be the Bucs here. But I lean the same way even with white pants. I've said in past issues that the same (non-white) color helmet and jersey combo gets a slight ding from me; I prefer a bit of contrast. The Bucs are a Top 10 wardrobe for a reason, and the white over pewter outfit is one of their best. One more thing about this uniform matchup: this is a perfect example of two good uniforms that make for a bad uniform matchup. The Chiefs are the kings of clash for a reason, and these outfits just don't work together.
Like Brady versus Rodgers last week, this may be the last time we get Brady versus Mahomes. Short of a Super Bowl rematch or the most shocking trade in NFL history, this will definitely be the last time we see it this season. Enjoy it while you can. Both teams are stone cold Super Bowl contenders. However, each seems to have a chink in their armor. The Bucs have been grappling with the injury bug. And the Chiefs offense seems to have a Tyreek Hill-sized hole. Loser of this one falls to 2-2 and has a much harder path to the one seed.
The Pick: Buccaneers -1 (-110)
NOTE - The Chiefs have yet to unveil white or red pants.
(Second) best for last. I was this close to selecting Rams at 49ers as the best matchup of the week. But nostalgia won out for the ultimate pick. Not a false note in this one (regardless of whether the Rams wear yellow or blue pants). The colors really pop and are as complementary as it gets. The 49ers throwbacks are some of the best in the league and feature an excellent use of drop shadow. And the Rams white uniforms continue to impress. The 49ers have the edge, but it's a legitimate debate.
Speaking of contenders that have chinks in their armor, the two NFC finalists from last season seem to have lost a step. But I expect both to find their way in short order. The Niners need this one more. 1-3 is not a hole you want to climb out of when you have Super Bowl aspirations. The Rams offensive line has struggled so far this year, and the San Francisco front is poised to take advantage.
The Pick: 49ers -1.5 (-110)
Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play
NOTE- The Rams have yet to unveil yellow or blue pants.
Worst NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 4.
Nothing like starting your morning with the worst matchup of the week in the even earlier London window. London games have always felt like a bonus gift of extra football, and for that I am thankful. But there's no sugarcoating the uniform matchup for Vikings at Saints.* Body suit purple is never a good look for the Vikings. And the Saints ruined one of the league's best uniforms with a blacked out, fleur-de-lis wrapping paper helmet. With the end of the single helmet rule, the Saints were finally clear to introduce an old gold helmet that matched the gold of the icy white throwbacks. But like many others this offseason, they caught the black hemet bug. While I don't like the choice of a black helmet with this outfit, a normal helmet stripe would've made it somewhat tolerable. Instead, you have what you see before you. Puke.
No Jameis Winston in this one for the Saints, which means Andy Dalton (with a dash of Taysom Hill) will be handling the quarterbacking duties. The Vikings have been a bit up and down to start the year, but they're in a great spot against a banged up New Orleans team to start 3-1. As is usually the case for the Vikings, this is Kirk's game to lose.
*We need to talk about the NFL's choice to have a London matchup between the Vikings and Saints. What an unintentional troll job. As any historian will tell you, Vikings and England go way back. And how about picking the London game to debut the Saints fleur-de-lis fiesta helmet. We haven't seen a fleur-de-lis display this bold in the face of the English since the Hundred Years' War. Between that and the uniform matchup, we may have an international incident on our hands.
The Pick: Under 42 (-110)
Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 4.
Party like it's 1986. Week 4 is officially "Give the People What They Want" Week with the Giants joining the Bengals and giving their fanbase something they've been clamoring for. The blue throwbacks are glorious and pair well with the classic road whites of the Bears. The Giants are going all out and bringing back their old endzone as well. It'll be a rainy, nostalgic day in the Meadowlands. Can't think of a better atmosphere for a matchup between the Monsters of the Midway and the New York Football Giants. And it's only fitting this is the best matchup of the week.
Who had the 2-1 Bears visiting the 2-1 Giants on their 2022 NFL bingo card? I'm probably the only person in America that has both the Bears and Giants making the playoffs. Not that I can take too much credit if it actually happens; I go where the uniform gods steer me. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little nervous about the over in this one. Both passing games have been nothing short of anemic. But 39 points is a low hurdle to clear, and perhaps the defenses can pitch in with some touchdowns of their own.
The Pick: Over 38.5 (-110)
Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play
The Gridiron Uniform Database.
The uniform graphics you see here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. It is my favorite site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casual fans alike. This is especially the case during the season. I check the site multiple times a day to keep tabs on who’s wearing what.
Drop me a line.
You can always find me on Twitter at NFL Fashion Advice (@fashion_nfl) or via email at [email protected]. Come talk uniforms and all things football, and let me know what you think of the newsletter.
Coming Attractions.
Well, if this is it old boy, I hope you don't mind if I go out speaking the king's.
Hard to believe we're nearing the quarter pole of the season. The fun resumes on Thursday for Week 5 with the Thursday Night Football Uniform Matchup and some Single Digit Revolution fantasy plays.
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