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Bets Dressed - Week 3 - Uniform Matchups and Picks

When I first looked at the Week 3 slate, I counted at least eight bona fide contenders for best matchup of the week. Thanks to some poor aesthetic decision making, that number has dwindled. But this is another strong week overall. The outlook on the NFL uniform landscape continues to be half full.

A quick note on methodology.

As always, I’m analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best. And just because a team is ranked higher in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings doesn’t mean it will automatically win the uniform matchup. It’s what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.

Week 3 Uniform Matchups and Picks.

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Nice little color palette clash to get us started on the right foot. And a great showcase of unique helmet logos. I have my issues with the Vikings modern elements, but it’s a solid look overall. Whether the Chargers go yellow pants or white pants, they can do no wrong on the road. And it’s no surprise they’re the pick here.

Words cannot describe how excited I am for this one. A true loser leaves town scenario. 0-3 is basically a death sentence for NFL playoff contention, so neither the Chargers nor the Vikings can afford to drop this one.* These teams are as flawed as it gets, but both can put up points. Herbert and Cousins are going to light up the Minnesota sky. The Uniform Gods - as they always do - have steered us to the Chargers. But I’m just excited to sit back and enjoy this laser show.

*If the Chargers lose here, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Brandon Staley get the boot. Surprised he kept his job after the Jaguars collapse, and the team does not appear to be buying whatever he is selling.

The Pick: Chargers +1

NOTE - Both teams have yet to reveal their uniforms.

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

If we’re all in the trust tree, I’m kind of digging this Broncos-Dolphins uniform matchup. Two flawed looks with serious upside. And I always appreciate helmet logos that explore the space horizontally (Denver more so than Miami). I’m tempted to go with the Broncos, but I just can’t condone those Panelist Era side panels. Dolphins by a bottlenose.

Broncos-Dolphins will always make me think of Elway-Marino. And while Wilson-Tagovailoa doesn’t live up to that high standard, this is a compelling matchup. Miami has an argument for best team in football two weeks in, and Tua is the betting favorite for MVP. Denver, on the other hand, is in danger of dropping to 0-3 and landing in a world of “Will Payton bench Russ for Stidham?” questions. On paper, the Dolphins should be able to take care of business. But rubber banding* is always in play in the NFL; anyone can beat anyone. So a Broncos upset wouldn’t shock me in the least. But consider me happy to be riding with Miami in a Vic Fangio revenge spot.

*Shoutout Mario Kart 64.

The Pick: Dolphins -6

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Falcons-Lions had some tolerable potential, but the Lions going blue pants knocked us off the rails. Even with that decision, I can’t wrap my head around going with the Falcons. In a worst of the week shortlist matchup, I’m reluctantly picking Detroit.

While the uniform matchup leaves much to be desired, I’m all the way in on the this football game. The Falcons are my darkshorse NFC pick, and their 2-0 start has me thinking such a result is in the cards. The Lions lost an OT shootout against the rebounding Seahawks, but I’ve seen enough from them at the end of last year and early this season to know they are legit. I have a feeling this will be a “last team with the ball wins” type of game. For our sake, let’s hope it’s Goff and the Lions (with a chance to go up by 4 or more).

The Pick: Lions -3

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Had my eye on Colts-Ravens for best of the week. Was really hoping for black-black-purple or black-purple-white from Baltimore. Had they done so, this matchup would have occupied the top spot. But the stripeless black pants just don’t do it for me. Colts it is.

Lamar Jackson is coming into his own in the Todd Monken offense. And Zay Flowers has been a revelation; I’m already ready to crown him as the most talented receiver Lamar has played with. Hate to see Anthony Richardson already dealing with concussions but glad the team is letting him take his time to return. Gardner Minshew is a more-than-serviceable backup with a knack for making things interesting. And we’ll need all the magic Gardner can muster to cover here.

The Pick: Colts +8

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Bills-Commanders is a classic case of the good, the bad, and the ugly. The good: Buffalo’s excellent icy whites. The bad: Washington’s uniforms in general. The ugly: Commanders adding insult to injury with practice pants. Bills in a rout.

I can’t be the only one that hasn’t bought in to Sam Howell and the Commanders. Don’t get me wrong; I genuinely hope Howell becomes the next mid-round star quarterback no one saw coming. I just don’t buy him or Washington after two weeks against bottom of the barrel competition. As expected, the Bills got right last week in a blowout of the Raiders. And I think it’s more of the same in DC.

The Pick: Bills -6

NOTE - The Commanders have yet to reveal their choice of pants.

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Find someone to love you as much as the Saints hate wearing gold pants.* I’m tempted to begrudgingly respect the bit, but the white practice pants look is unforgivable. If I can buy your team’s football pants at Dick’s Sporting Goods, something has gone terribly wrong. You’ll never run into this problem with the Packers, and they make the decision easy here.

The Saints may be 2-0, but I’d be lying if I said I was impressed by their victories over the Titans and Panthers by a total of four points. The Packers, on the other hand, look legitimately good under new quarterback Jordan Love. And I expect the Lambeau home opener to be a happy hero’s welcome for the young gun.

*Ranking New Orleans at No. 28 in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings continues to age well.

The Pick: Packers -1

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Like Bills-Commanders above, we have another lopsided uniform matchup in Titans at Browns. The Titans make me miss their old uniforms every Sunday, and the Browns lap them easily in full Triple Mismatch Club glory.

I’m sick to my stomach for Nick Chubb following his season-ending injury in Pittsburgh last week. He’s the ultimate “act like you’ve been there” guy. No frills or fanfare. Just goes about his business, rushes for over five yards per carry, and casually exists as the most efficient runner of his generation. Wishing him a speedy and successful recovery and hoping we see him on the field again. After such an emotionally draining loss against the Steelers, the Browns performance against the Titans could dictate how the rest of the season goes. Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt* will be responsible for filling the colossal void left by Chubb’s absence. Lucky for them, the Browns still have one of the best offensive lines in the league. And I think they’re going to go out there and win this one for Nick.

*ROMulus and REEMus. Hereby nicknaming the new Browns backfield the Roman Empire.

The Pick: Browns -3.5

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

This matchup - on the shortlist for worst of the week - has me in a pretzel. While the Patriots have yet to reveal their choice of pants, they’ve lost the benefit of the doubt in holding out hope for silver pants. And the navy unitard has overstayed its welcome The Jets icy whites are palatable, but the helmet is among the worst in the league. Going to take this one element by element. Helmet? Patriots. Jersey? Patriots. Pants? Jets. 2-1 New England. They get the slightest of nods.

The Patriots desperately need a get-right game, and - would you look at that - here come the Jets. New England has played well enough to win both games this season, but there clearly is an explosive edge missing from this offense. I still believe in Mac Jones, but the Patriots have done him no favors with that stable of receivers.* It won’t get any easier against a world-class Jets defense. But the Patriots have a world-class defense of their own, and Zach Wilson is Zach Wilson.

*The best run after catch last week came from Cole Strange. Speaking of … there’s no universe where overturning that spot was supported by clear and convincing evidence.

The Pick: Patriots -2.5

NOTE - The Patriots have yet to reveal their choice of pants.

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

For the first time in franchise history, the Seattle Seahawks are wearing white at home in a regular season game.* And while the Seahawks in white over navy is far from my favorite uniform in the league, I’m always a fan of making uniform history. I’m higher on the Panthers than others but going with Seattle on this historic occasion.

This is quickly turning into the week of the MIA rookie quarterback with Bryce Young - like Anthony Richardson above - set to miss his first NFL game due to injury. Andy Dalton, the Red Rifle himself, will get the start. Seattle got punched in the mouth Week 1 but righted the ship in a shootout in Detroit. This has the makings of a Seahawks shellacking.

*The Seahawks are honoring the Super Bowl XLVIII team and wearing the same uniforms worn in that championship performance.

The Pick: Seahawks -5

NOTE - the Panthers have yet to reveal their choice of pants.

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Another week. Another instance of me asking for the Cardinals to pair white pants with the red jersey. Until next time, Arizona. In the meantime, the Cowboys run away with this one.

I give Jonathan Gannon and the Cardinals a lot of credit for the start of their season. Even with the second half collapse against the Giants last week, this team is playing with a noticeable edge and leaving it all on the field. They may not win many games this season, but Gannon and GM Monti Ossenfort appear to be the right guys to correct the culture in the desert. I say all this because the Cardinals are going to need all of the institutional support they can get after the Cowboys buzzsaw rolls through town. On paper, this one should be out of hand early. But the Cardinals have covered in two straight. For our sake, let’s hope that streak comes to an end.

The Pick: Cowboys -12

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Bears-Chiefs is an excellent showdown between a pair of sharp and classic looks - worthy choice for best of the week and certainly made my shortlist. But it lacked a certain X factor that carried my best of the week choice to the top. For both the Bears and Chiefs, I actually prefer their road looks. The helmet/jersey contrast goes a long way - especially for the Chiefs. So give me Chicago.

I’d be lying if I said I was thrilled to be rolling with the Bears here. Two weeks in and the organizational dysfunction is bubbling to the surface. Nothing would make me happier - from a gambling perspective and as an appreciator of underdogs - than Chicago shocking the world and pulling the upset of the year. But I won’t hold my breath.

The Pick: Bears +12.5

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

When the Steelers and Raiders meet, they’re always in contention for best of the week. But as far as uniform matchups go, I prefer the road Raiders and home Steelers. I have this one as a true dead heat. When there is a tie, we defer to the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings. So the Steelers (No. 7) get the narrowest nod over the Raiders (No. 8).

Excited for another chapter in one of the best rivalries in NFL history. And seeing it on Sunday Night Football is an added bonus. The Raiders grinded out a tough win against the Broncos in Week 1 and then got their barn doors blown off by the Bills in Week 2. The Steelers got smacked by the 49ers in Week 1 and relied upon a pair of defensive touchdowns to edge out the Browns in Week 2. Stated differently, if you flip the weeks, Pittsburgh and Las Vegas have had similar starts to the season. Kenny Pickett announced his NFL presence on Franco Night last year. And despite a rough start to the year, the dude is a gamer. Under the Sunday night lights, I think he leads the boys in black and yellow to an outright victory.

The Pick: Steelers +2.5

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

Eagles-Bucs had serious best of the week potential. But the Eagles threw a wrench in things going with white pants. While I don’t mind the look, this matchup* would be much better with the Birds in green pants.** I’m not mad, Philly. Just disappointed. The Bucs are delivering one of my favorite Triple Mismatch Club outfits in the league. The white pants unlock the uniform and allow for each element to pop. So it’s Tampa Bay in a no brainer.

Everyone expected the Eagles to be undefeated heading into this one. But how about those Buccaneers? Baker Mayfield is playing like an MVP candidate, Mike Evans is an ageless wonder, and that defense plays up to the moment when it matters. I’ll happily take 5 points at home on Monday Night Football.

*Another prime example of NFL teams putting no thought in the overall uniform matchup.

**As always, complementary contrast is king.

The Pick: Buccaneers +5

Worst NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 3.

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

The Commanders finally get off the schneid as two new teams occupy the seat of shame this week. The Texans have the dubious dishonor of most generic, underwhelming uniform in the league. And it’s always a sin when the Jaguars don’t feature teal. Jacksonville also suffers from Dick’s Sporting Goods Syndrome with the white practice pants. All in all, easy choice for worst of the week.

Don’t look now, but CJ Stroud can flat out ball. He was billed as the “safe floor” guy in the draft, but we’re starting to see what his ceiling can be. The Texans may not be going anywhere this year, but Houston should be thrilled with the early returns from the rookie gunslinger. The Jaguars have a wunderkind at quarterback themselves, but Trevor Lawrence was flummoxed by the Chiefs last week. I think he bounces back well here. All of this will have us sweating the under. But in the Uniform Gods we trust. And the Jaguars defense has the feel of a sneaky good unit.

The Pick: Under 44

Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 3.

Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database

If you thought I was picking any other matchup this week, you don’t fully appreciate my commitment to the bit. It’s like this matchup was made just for me. All of my bits rolled into one. Icy white Bengals. Defense of the Rams uniforms. Yin and yang matchup of the year.* I feel like Bill Hader as Stefon from SNL. This game has everything.

Well, everything except Joe Burrow (at least that’s the way it’s trending). I’ve been looking forward to this rematch of Super Bowl LVI since the NFL schedule dropped. So it’s a bummer if we’re missing one of the best players in the league. But even without Joe Cool, there’s plenty of scoring potential in this one. Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon are skill position players we expect to hear from. But Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and Tutu Atwell have exploded onto the scene and should make their presence known. Matt Stafford and his Zoomers are the clear favorites if Burrow is sidelined, but all we need to worry about are points. And I think we’ll get our fair share.

*Sure, I was rooting for yellow pants. But when life gives you lemons blue pants, make lemonade tweak the yin and yang matchup criteria to allow for this blue-white showdown to count.

The Pick: Over 43.5**

**Keep your powder dry until Joe Burrow’s status is official. This number will certainly drop if Jake Browning gets the tap on the shoulder.

NOTE - the Rams have yet to officially reveal their choice of pants. But I’m reading into some team graphics, and this would track with their uniform habits against teams going icy white. In fact, in the four regular season games where the Rams have rocked this version of all blue, the opposing team was in some variation of white jersey-white pants.

The Gridiron Uniform Database.

The uniform graphics you see here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. Best site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casuals alike.

Coming Attractions.

Another uniform week in the books. You know the drill. Back for more on Thursday.

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