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Bets Dressed - Week 3 - Uniform Matchups and Picks

We've got a solid slate today, folks. Some excellent uniform matchups and even better football games.

Week 3 kicked off with the Steelers and Browns. Both a fantastic uniform matchup and a brutal beat if you had a teaser line destroyed by the game ending fumble recovery touchdown. But on behalf of all Browns defense fantasy owners, no complaints here!

A quick note on methodology.

As always, I’m analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best. And just because a team’s wardrobe is ranked higher in the Power Rankings doesn’t mean that it will automatically win the uniform matchup. It’s what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.

I’ll also be crowning the best matchup of the week and shaming the worst matchup of the week. It’s the over for the sharpest matchup and the under for the dullest.

And don’t forget the Triple Mismatch Club. I’m making three units plays whenever the best dressed team in the matchup is a member of the Club (different colored helmet, jersey, and pants). And nine units plays if both members of the week’s best matchup are members.

Keep an eye out for a “NOTE” here and there where teams have not fully unveiled what they will be wearing before the writing of this issue. I’ll make my best guess as to their outfit, and it won’t affect my ability to pick a winner. I’ll also try to update after the fact if possible so each weekly issue can be a reference point for what a team wore on a given week.

Week 3 Uniform Matchups and Picks.

Ugh. I really thought we had a chance to see the Dolphins throwbacks in this one. If they pulled that trigger, this would have been best matchup of the week. But alas, here we are. This is still a strong matchup. The Bills finally broke the unitard spell and are pairing the excellent blue jerseys with white pants for the first time this season. The Dolphins icy white look is the best of their non-throwback options.* But the Bills are the easy choice.

As for the game itself, the Bills secondary is dealing with some significant injury issues. Dane Jackson thankfully avoided a serious neck injury, but he's out of this one. Jordan Poyer is out too. And to make matters worse, Micah Hyde is gone for the rest of the season. The buzzsaw Bills are showing their first signs of vulnerability right as the high powered Dolphins passing game comes to town. My love for Mike McDaniel is well known, but only one team has Josh Allen at quarterback. As the number keeps dropping, the better I feel about being on the Bills.

*Bonus points to the Dolphins for wearing their whites and forcing the Bills to wear dark jerseys in the South Florida humidity. Analytics are cool and all, but uniform strategy is really where it's at.

The Pick: Bills -4.5 (-110)

We're a couple of different pants from having a sneaky good uniform matchup. Purple pants for the Ravens and gray pants for the Patriots would take this one to another level. Instead, we get something that's much closer to worst of the week than best of the week. I've lost patience with the Patriots navy unitard look, so I'm giving a slight edge to the white-over-black Ravens ensemble.

Something about this line stinks. The Ravens are battling injuries, but it feels like they should be laying a few more points. Home dog Patriots are always a solid bet under Bill Belichick. But Lamar Jackson has been electric to start the year. And he seems to have found his WR1 in Rashod Bateman.*

*We're well on our way to covering the Rashod Bateman season long receiving touchdown over.

The Pick: Ravens -2.5 (-115)

I'm lower on the Saints than the general consensus - especially when they are so reliant on the unitard look. But credit where credit is due when they break out the gold pants. This is by far their best outfit featuring the black jerseys. Conversely, I'm higher on the Panthers than the general consensus. But the Saints are the pick in this matchup.

I'm not going to read too much into the Saints loss last week. The Bucs appear to have the best defense in the league. The Panthers look a bit lost. But I expect a bit of gun slinging from Baker this week and backed it up as one of our Single Digit Revolution fantasy plays. Anything can happen in a divisional matchup, and this one could go either way.

The Pick: Saints -2 (-110)

NOTE - The Panthers haven’t officially unveiled their pants yet, but I would be surprised if they wear anything but white. They haven’t worn silver pants with white since 1998. The have worn black pants with white in recent years but not last year.

UPDATE - Consider me surprised! Black pants for the Panthers (first time ever wearing this combo at home).

I really enjoy when the Bears break out these unique throwbacks. My only critique is the crowded shoulder stripe situation. I know they need to stay faithful to the original design, but I do wish they would pick one shoulder stripe style and remove the other. Unfortunately, the Bears are breaking these uniforms out against the Texans, so we are left with navy blue overload. I frequently talk about the need for a uniform scheduling czar, and this matchup is another good example. There are so many complementary uniforms to pair with this excellent Bears uniform, but here we are with a perplexing choice that results in an overall matchup that is more eyesore than attraction.

Don't look now, but the Texans and Jaguars have had better starts to the season than the Colts and Titans. I don't think that lasts much longer for the Texans. I like the Bears in this spot. Justin Fields is another one of our Single Digit Revolution fantasy plays this week, and I think he shows out against Houston.

The Pick: Bears -3 (+100)

This will be three straight weeks for the all white look from the Jets. And each week I end up picking the team on the opposite side. That trend continues here. The Bengals have a top 10 wardrobe in the league, and I especially like the black over white ensemble. I slightly prefer the orange pant stripe version, but it's a negligible difference.

I thought last week was the bounce back spot for the Bengals, and boy was I wrong. This is as must win as it gets for the defending AFC champs. 0-2 is (somewhat) salvageable. 0-3 is a postseason death sentence. Speaking of me being wrong, last week's issue included my criticism of the Jets starting Joe Flacco over Mike White in Zach Wilson's absence. Flacco had me eating my words with a four touchdown performance in a comeback miracle against the Browns. I don't think the magic carries over this week. I expect signs of life from Joe Burrow and the Bengals - and a big win to boot.

The Pick: Bengals -6 (-110)

Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play

The Lions are at tricky uniform team to judge. The Honolulu blue is the star of their wardrobe, so the primary blues are typically superior to the road whites. But here come the blue pants to the rescue. The Lions uniforms have their clear flaws, but I placed them in the "flawed good" tier for a reason. I really like the silver-white-blue color situation, and it just so happens to be a Triple Mismatch Club member. I've previously laid out my issues with the "wasted talent" Vikings, and the Lions get the nod in this one.

I'm fired up for this NFC North battle. Dan Campbell and the Lions are one of the most watchable teams in the league. There's a tenacity that comes through when you watch them play. But I'm equally excited to see the Vikings and how they bounce back after having their pants pulled down on national television in the City of Brotherly Love. Winner of this one reasserts themselves in the division and conference races. Loser falls below .500. Has there ever been a team easier to root for than these Lions? Glad the uniform gods have us riding with them.

The Pick: Lions +6 (-110)

Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play

NOTE - The Vikings have yet to unveil whether they'll wear white or purple pants.

This is one of those weird instances where the colors blend nicely, but the uniform matchup still stinks. The majority of that blame falls on the dreadful Titans uniforms. But I've said before that the Raiders primary white uniforms are underwhelming, and I stand by that statement. Once again, I'm calling for the Raiders - now located in the Silver State - to adopt the silver number jersey as their primary road outfit.

Absent a tie, an AFC playoff team from last season will leave this matchup 0-3. That would be disastrous for either team, but the Titans at least have the benefit of playing in the lowly AFC South. The Raiders are trapped in arguably the best division in football. I can't say I'm bullish on either of these teams the rest of the way, but the eye test from Weeks 1 and 2 tells me the Raiders are the better squad. Whether they want it more is another story.

The Pick: Raiders -2 (-110)

The Commanders sure like wearing their white uniforms. My feelings on them are already well known, so I'm not going to beat a dead horse. The Eagles are another "wasted talent" team that would greatly benefit from a kelly green redesign, but they're the easy choice here.

Speaking of easy, the Eagles are rolling over everyone and barely breaking a sweat. The big storyline here is Carson Wentz squaring off against his old team (and former backup). The reality is that Jalen Hurts has become the locker room leader that Wentz never could be for the Eagles. But this feels like a classic trap game. Two dominant performances by Philadelphia to start the season followed by a road trip laying a healthy amount of points to a division rival. In the uniform gods we trust, but that line is making me nervous.

The Pick: Eagles -6 (-110)

A tale of two uniforms. The ever disappointing Jaguars. And the always satisfying Chargers. Are the Jaguars allergic to teal pants? It's the best color in their palette by far, and they consistently fail to show it off when wearing white jerseys.

This line has been in free fall, which is in line (pun intended) with reports that Justin Herbert* will be a game time decision for the Chargers. My first thought: what does this mean for Chase Daniel's career earnings per pass attempt rate? My second thought: are the Jaguars about to improve to 2-1 and position themselves as the team to beat in the AFC South?

*You can't question Justin Herbert's toughness staying in the game last week and somehow leading his team down the field for a touchdown. You can absolutely question Brandon Staley for allowing Herbert to stay in the game. The dude was noticeably in distress. At some point, the adults in the room need to protect the franchise's most valuable asset.

The Pick: Chargers -3 (-110)

NOTE - The Chargers have yet to unveil if they'll wear white or gold pants (I don't think they'll go gold three weeks in a row). If gold, this will be a Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play.

UPDATE - As expected, white pants for the Chargers.

There is not much - if anything - positive to say about this one. In fact, this was the runner up for worst matchup of the week. The Cardinals are the last gasp of the dreadful Panelist Era. And the Rams are thankfully treating us to bone grays for the last time this season. But I will say this: the bone grays are most tolerable when worn with blue pants. There's something about it that looks much better on the screen than in the graphic here. And the Rams are the pick here. With all of that said, this is absolutely one to forget.

The Cardinals overtime victory against the Raiders was the epitome of snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. Kyler Murray is nothing short of a magician when he is on, and his heroics last week may have saved the Cardinals (seemingly floundering) season. The Rams joined the win column as well last week, but they sure made it more difficult than need be against he lowly Falcons. It begs the question: are we sure either of these teams are good? I'm far more confident in the Rams and glad to be on their side this week. But I'd be lying if I said I think the Rams can repeat as Super Bowl champions.

The Pick: Rams -3.5 (-105)

NOTE - The Cardinals have yet to unveil whether they'll wear white or red pants.

The Battle of the Bays.* Packers at Bucs was on the shortlist for best matchup of the week, but the lack of pewter pants for Tampa has it on the outside looking in. With that being said, it's still a glorious matchup. Here we have an interesting situation where the Bucs wardrobe as a whole is higher for me than the Packers. But as for this specific matchup, the classic green over yellow Packers takes the cake.

As a football fan, there are certain games where you need to pause, reflect, and appreciate what you have while you have it. This may be the last time we see Aaron Rodgers squaring off against Tom Brady. Two of the greatest quarterbacks** to ever play the game. I hope we get more - whether it's this postseason or beyond. But I'm going to appreciate this one like it's our last.

*People forget that this used to be an NFC Central clash. And people really forget that the Bucs came into the NFL as members of the AFC West.

**My Top 5 Greatest Quarterbacks of All Time:

  1. Tom Brady

  2. Peyton Manning

  3. Joe Montana

  4. Johnny Unitas

  5. Aaron Rodgers

The Pick: Packers +1.5 (-110)

The Broncos are breaking out the all navy look for Sunday Night Football. I'd be lying if I said this doesn't trigger some John Elway Super Bowl helicopter nostalgia. I just wish they'd feature white pants instead of a unitard. The 49ers are flawless in my book and the easy pick in this one.

With Trey Lance undergoing season ending surgery following a devastating ankle injury, the Jimmy G era resumes in San Francisco. I was incredibly bullish on Lance heading into this season, but in a twisted way it feels like the 49ers may actually be better positioned to win it all this year with a veteran presence under center. After all, they were just one game (and a dropped Jaquiski Tartt interception) away from the Super Bowl last season. The X factor in this one might be the return of George Kittle to the lineup. There's no sugar coating how awful the Broncos have looked coming out of the gate. Russell Wilson doesn't look like a quarterback worth $245 million dollars. And Nathaniel Hackett looks completely out of his depth managing the game as a head coach.

The Pick: 49ers -1.5 (-110)

One of my all time favorite uniform tropes is when NFL teams, especially those in the NFC East, force the Cowboys to wear blue on the road. So nothing makes me happier than the whiteout in the Meadowlands. Especially with Penn State's very own Saquon Barkley in the backfield for the G-Men. The full script "GIANTS" helmet is always a highlight of the uniform year. And this Monday's icy white version is just an appetizer for the fantastic blue jersey version returning later this season. The Cowboys navy uniform is sharp in its own right, but the edge goes to the Giants here.

How about these 2-0 Giants? We shouldn't overreact too much with wins over the winless Panthers and Titans. But the NFL is better when the Giants are - if nothing else - competent. And Brian Daboll seems like a safe bet to bring a baseline of competency* back to the Big Apple. Cooper Rush is everything you want in a backup: calm, cool, and collected plus just enough skill to get you a handful of wins. So we've got a fun one on Monday Night.

*Speaking of competency, Joe Buck and Troy Aikman have restored a sense of prestige to the Monday Night Football booth, and I'm excited to hear them call this one.**

**MNF Life Hack: put the main broadcast on the big screen and have the Manningcast going on your phone, tablet, etc.

The Pick: Giants -1 (-110)

Worst NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 3.

This one is dark. Literally. The Falcons might as well have worn their black jerseys and gone all the way. It's only fitting that each of these teams have already been featured in a worst matchup of the week this season. These two basement dwelling wardrobes are great examples of when modern uniform design can go wrong. What's especially frustrating about this matchup is the elite uniform potential of each team. Imagine the red-white-gray Falcons going against the silver-blue-silver Seahawks. If only.

I don't think anyone would've predicted the Seahawks being 2-1 after three weeks, but it's trending that way if they win. Each team features some fantasy under-performers to the start the year. For our under-betting purposes, let's hope the anemic starts of Kyle Pitts,* DK Metcalf, and the boys continue for one more week.

*In the Single Digit Revolution issue, I took Kyle Pitts over 4.5 receiving touchdowns. He hasn't so much as sniffed the endzone so far, but I'm not giving up on him yet. I still believe in the most hyped tight end prospect of all time. As for the Falcons coaching staff? Not so much.

The Pick: Under 42.5 (-110)

Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 3.

I thought about Steelers-Browns. I was tempted by Packers-Bucs. And I was holding out hope for Bills-Dolphins boosted by throwbacks. But Chiefs at Colts is about as classic and sharp as it gets. And it's this week's choice for best of the week. The perfect matchup for the beginning of Fall with color palettes this crisp. And perfectly complementary to boot. Can't wait to see this one on the screen.

The Chiefs are flying high and looking like one of the best teams in the league. The Colts are in full panic mode with a disastrous start to a season that many (including me) thought would involve an AFC South crown and sneaky Super Bowl contention. Juggernaut vs. Disappointment. Easy call right? Not so fast. This is trap game 101. And Colts at home with the points might be the play of the week. But all we care about are points, points, and more points. The Chiefs will give us those in spades, and I think the Colts rise to the occasion to match them. Matt Ryan is the last of our three Single Digit Revolution fantasy plays this week. If he can keep the Colts apace of the Chiefs, we'll be sitting pretty.

The Pick: Over 50.5 (-110)

NOTE - The Chiefs have yet to unveil whether they'll wear red or white pants (I'd be surprised if it's not red).

The Gridiron Uniform Database.

The uniform graphics you see here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. It is my favorite site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casual fans alike. This is especially the case during the season. I check the site multiple times a day to keep tabs on who’s wearing what.

Drop me a line.

You can always find me on Twitter at NFL Fashion Advice (@fashion_nfl) or via email at [email protected]. Come talk uniforms and all things football, and let me know what you think of the newsletter.

Coming Attractions.

The fun resumes on Thursday for Week 4 with the Thursday Night Football Uniform Matchup and some Single Digit Revolution fantasy plays.

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And always remember: Look Good. Feel Good. Pay Good.