One week down, seventeen more to go. We're just getting started here at the Bets Dressed newsletter. And if you thought last Thursday's season opening battle was must-see TV, you ain't seen nothing yet.

We've got Justin Herbert against Patrick Mahomes on the first ever exclusively streamed regular season game in NFL history. Ladies and gentlemen, it's the Amazon Bowl!

A quick note on methodology.

In case you're new around here, I'm analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best. And just because a team’s wardrobe is ranked higher in the Power Rankings doesn’t mean that it will automatically win the uniform matchup. It's what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.

And don't forget the Triple Mismatch Club wrinkle. I'm making three units plays whenever the best dressed team in the matchup is a member of the Club (different colored helmet, jersey, and pants). And nine units plays if both members of the week's best matchup are members.

Week 1 Recap.

Before we get to Thursday Night Football and Week 2 Fantasy Plays, let's see how Week 1 went:

7-9 for the inaugural Bets Dressed slate. After a brutal early window, it could have been much worse. Week 1 is always a crapshoot, and Week 2 tends to be closer to preseason expectations. But the uniforms are our guide here, and we are subject to the whims of the uniform gods. The quest for an aesthetic edge goes on. We certainly haven't found it yet. But I'm a big believer in the power of positive thinking. Onward.

Thursday Night Football Uniform Matchup.

As I've said before and above, just because a team's wardrobe is higher in the Power Rankings doesn't mean they'll automatically win the uniform matchup. Which brings us to a tough choice here. The Chiefs iconic red ensemble is an NFL classic. And while the Chargers powder blues will always win out, the white uniforms invite more competition and some difficult decisions. There will surely come a time when the Chargers in white will not be my pick in a uniform matchup. But as Aragorn said about the courage of men failing, the forsaking of friendship, and the breaking of all bonds of fellowship, it is not this day. I'm not as high on the Chiefs as others. And the Chargers look is just so damn good.

What happens on the football field may be another story. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs were dialed in last week. But the Chargers are not the Cardinals. The biggest storyline is the MVP candidate showdown* between Mahomes and Justin Herbert. Rather than speculate as to who will gain the upper hand, I'm just going to sit back and enjoy.

*I'm hereby dubbing the 2022 NFL MVP race "The Triumvirate". Made famous by Ancient Rome and defined as three men holding power. The Allen-Herbert-Mahomes Era is upon us. Now as to who's Caesar, who's Pompey, and who's Crassus?** Time will tell.

**Little bit of Roman history coming at ya.

The Pick: Chargers +4.5 (-115)

Club SDR - Week 2 Fantasy Plays.

The Triple Mismatch Club isn't the only club around here. The Single Digit Revolution lives on, and each Thursday we're picking stat props for three single-digit-wearing players to expect big things from in fantasy that week.

We were right on the money with Trey Lance's rushing over* last week but came up two yards short on Ja'Marr Chase's longest reception prop. DeVante Parker had an endzone target broken up that led to an interception, and it was all downhill for him from there. Time to turn the mojo around.

*While not on this week's Club SDR list, the Trey Lance rushing over is a solid bet each week for as long as it stays in the 30s (looking like 39.5 this week).

JuJu Smith-Schuster - Over 5.5 Receptions (+110)

This isn't always rocket science. 8 targets* and 6 catches for JuJu last week in his Chiefs debut. Plus money to hit that number again in a game that can quickly turn into a barn burner? Say no more.

*JuJu boasted a 21% target share and was second in total targets behind only Travis Kelce (9). Patrick Mahomes pass attempts in three career games against Justin Herbert: 47, 44, and 47. Do the math.

DJ Moore - Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-125)

Coming off a dud last week (six targets - three catches - 43 yards), this is an ideal bounce back spot. The Giants are riding high off their season opening upset of the Titans,* and three separate Titans cleared this number against the Giants secondary. Moore is by far the best receiver in Carolina and one of the better WR1s in the league. I think he reminds everyone of that this week.

*It was great win for the Giants and sets the tone for the Daboll era. But were people really surprised by this? Does anyone believe in the Titans this season?

Lamar Jackson - Over 219.5 Passing Yards (-115)

In two career games against the Dolphins, Lamar has averaged 281 passing yards. Now that stat is a bit misleading because it includes his eruption for 324 passing yards and 5 touchdowns to kick off his 2019 MVP season. But it also includes 238 passing yards in last season's dismal 22-10 loss in Miami, which strangely enough has me more confident in cashing this prop. In short, it's revenge time for Lamar and the Ravens. Plus, he's cleared the number in nine of his last thirteen games* going back to the start of 2021.

*This includes a four attempt game cut short by injury.

The Gridiron Uniform Database.

The uniform graphics you see here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. It is my favorite site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casual fans alike.

Drop me a line.

You can always find me on Twitter at NFL Fashion Advice (@fashion_nfl) or via email at [email protected]. Come talk uniforms and all things football, and let me know what you think of the newsletter.

Coming Attractions.

Bets Dressed Week 2 coverage continues this Sunday with a breakdown of the full slate (plus Monday Night Football).

Look for the Sunday issue to hit your inbox a few hours before the early window kick. As I noted last week, we live in a world without a uniform scheduling czar, so it’s sometimes a chore finding out a team’s wardrobe ahead of time. In instances where it’s not 100% clear, I’ll make a best guess and update the issue later.

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And always remember: Look Good. Feel Good. Pay Good.