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- Bets Dressed - Week 18 - Uniform Matchups and Picks
Bets Dressed - Week 18 - Uniform Matchups and Picks
Week 18. The end of the regular season is officially upon us. Two Saturday games and 14 Sunday games make up the final slate. And ironically enough, Saturday features both the best and worst matchups of the week. So we're going to mix things up today and start there.
NOTE - With so many teams playing for nothing, we're taking a break from our Single Digit Revolution props this week. Keep an eye out for their return in the playoffs.
A quick note on methodology.
As always, I’m analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best. And just because a team’s wardrobe is ranked higher in the Power Rankings doesn’t mean that it will automatically win the uniform matchup. It’s what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.
I’ll also be crowning the best matchup of the week and shaming the worst matchup of the week. It’s the over for the sharpest matchup and the under for the dullest.
And don’t forget the Triple Mismatch Club. I’m making three units plays whenever the best dressed team in the matchup is a member of the Club (different colored helmet, jersey, and pants). And nine units plays if both members of the week’s best matchup are members.
Keep an eye out for a “NOTE” here and there where teams have not fully unveiled what they will be wearing before the writing of this issue. I’ll make my best guess as to their outfit, and it won’t affect my ability to pick a winner. I’ll also try to update after the fact if possible so each weekly issue can be a reference point for what a team wore on a given week.
Week 17 Recap.
Before we dive into Week 18, let’s take a look back at Week 17.
10-5. We're on a roll heading into the regular season finale. 33-15-1 over the last three weeks. Time to finish strong and keep the momentum going into the playoffs.
Week 18 Uniform Matchups and Picks.
SATURDAY GAMES.
Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 18.
Saving the best for first in Week 18. Chiefs at Raiders is one of the best uniform matchups in NFL history and will be a serious contender when we look back and crown the best uniform matchup of the 2022 season. The color palettes complement each other perfectly, and each team features a timeless look. What's not to like?
The Raiders season is over. And the Chiefs are a win away from locking up the No. 1 seed in the AFC.* Jarrett Stidham performed admirably in relief of Derek Carr, and the offense looked surprisingly potent. I don't expect this one to be much of a contest, but these two teams combined for 59 points earlier in the season. So don't be surprised if we see more fireworks to end the year. Patrick Mahomes is 430 passing yards away from breaking Peyton Manning's single season record, so look for the Chiefs to be throwing early and often. Consider me content to be riding with the over.
*Which may or may not entail home field in the AFC Championship Game following the NFL's late season change to its rulebook.
The Pick: Over 52 (-115)
NOTE - The Chiefs have yet to unveil their choice of pants. A graphic posted on their Twitter account featured white pants, so that's my best guess at present. I'm hoping that's the case because it's always a treat when the Chiefs break out the icy whites.
Worst NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 18.
Titans at Jaguars. The one guaranteed playoff game of the week happens to be the worst uniform game of the week.* While I love when the Jaguars break out teal jerseys or teal pants, the combination of the two is a radioactive mess. The teal unitard just does not do it for me. The Titans bring down every uniform matchup they're in, and it's no different here. Low marks all around.
The Titans have no business winning this game, but Josh Dobbs feels like the type of quarterback born to host a Saturday afternoon wildcard game.** And never underestimate the coaching ability of Mike Vrabel. Look for him to slow it down, muck it up, and turn it into a slog. This will be a Derrick Henry 30+ carry game. Plus this will be the first time we see Trevor Lawrence and the young Jags in a true playoff atmosphere. With all of that at play, the under is very live.
*By virtue of a tiebreaker over Jets-Dolphins.
**TJ Yates, Ryan Lindley, and Matt McGloin crawled and walked so Josh Dobbs could run.
The Pick: Under 40.5 (-115)
SUNDAY GAMES.
The uniform matchup for Patriots at Bills is the last thing that matters in this one. I've been watching football my entire life, and nothing I've seen on a football field was scarier than what took place Monday night in Cincinnati when Damar Hamlin went down on the field. I've never seen players and coaches with faces like that, and I hope I never see that again. You knew instantly that something was very, very wrong. By the grace of God, Damar Hamlin fought his way back to life and is under the care of world-class medical professionals with the support of his family, friends, teammates, coaches, and the entire football loving community. That night will stay with the Bills, the Bengals, and all of us watching for a long time. And all that really matters is Damar Hamlin and his road to recovery - regardless of whether that involves football or not.
The Bills are dressed best in this one, and they're the pick. Look for them to come out and win this one for Damar.
The Pick: Bills -7 (-115)
NOTE - Both teams have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
Buccaneers at Falcons. One of the easier uniform decisions of the week. The Bucs can do no wrong (so long as they aren't wearing the pewter bodysuit), and the Falcons can do no right (unless they are wearing throwbacks). Tampa Bay is the no brainer pick.
Tom Brady and company took care of business last week and locked up the NFC South. They're locked into the No. 4 seed no matter what happens, so I'd expect that starters will get rest at some point. If I ran the team, I'd be giving as many players a bye week as possible, but it sounds like that won't be the case (at least to start the game). The Falcons were talked about as one of the worst rosters in football coming into the season, but they showed some spunk this year. They have a hard-nosed running attack, and Arthur Smith is a solid coach. Now let's see if they can find someone this offseason capable of dependably throwing the ball to Kyle Pitts and Drake London.
The Pick: Buccaneers +4 (-110)
Vikings at Bears. The Chicago wardrobe choices this season can be summed up as follows: just because you can, doesn't mean you should. Earlier this year, they unveiled the eye-burning orange alternate helmet paired with the orange jersey. And now, for the first time in five years, they're breaking out a navy bodysuit. Hard pass. The Bears are presently in the top 10 of our Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings. I think next season they may find themselves on on the outside looking in. Sending a message to the Bears and going with the Vikings in this one.
The Vikings are still playing for playoff seeding, and the Bears are (in a way) still playing for draft position. With the 49ers scheduled to go against the lowly Cardinals, the Vikings may decide to take it easy regardless and rest some starters. If the Bears win or the Texans lose, Houston is on the clock for the 2023 NFL Draft. Your guess is as good as mine how this one goes if it ends up being Kirk's backup against Nathan Peterman. Nature of the beast in the last week of the regular season.
The Pick: Vikings -5.5 (-115)
NOTE - The Vikings have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
UPDATE - Purple pants confirmed for the Vikings.
Browns at Steelers is an absolute beaut of a uniform matchup. Right up there on the best-of-the-week shortlist. The interplay of the Browns in white and orange and the Steelers in black and yellow works wonders. This one is all but a tie, so I'm giving the Browns the slightest of nods. More than anything, I'm excited to sit back and watch this one - especially with its potential playoff implications.
Speaking of the playoffs, the Steelers refuse to throw in the (terrible) towel. They're still very much alive (with some help from the Bills and Jets). The defense is playing lights out, and Kenny Pickett is a bona fide gamer. The dude plays his best in must-have moments. Let it be known that Pittsburgh has their guy. As for Cleveland's guy, the Browns are pot committed to Deshaun Watson. They burned their reputation and pocketbook to get him, and the job security of many will be riding on how things look next season. As for Week 18, the opportunity to play spoiler to the Steelers will have to serve as Cleveland's 2022 Super Bowl.
The Pick: Browns +2.5 (-110)
Panthers at Saints. A relatively forgettable NFC South uniform matchup. With that being said, the color palettes go quite well together. It wouldn't shock me in the slightest if the Panthers unveil new uniforms this offseason, so this may be the last time we enjoy the current look for a while. As I've said before, I'm higher on the Carolina wardrobe than most. And I think we'll look back on these uniforms fondly when a redesign does happen. The Panthers are the pick here.
This football game is all but meaningless outside of draft position. And the Saints don't even have their first round pick to look forward to (it's heading to Philadelphia). Don't look now, but Sam Darnold has been playing quite well for the Panthers. Their defense has been solid all season. And the running game has been a delight to watch since trading away Christian McCaffrey (a rare win-win trade for both teams). I expect Steve Wilks to keep Carolina engaged in a game that doesn't matter.
The Pick: Panthers +3.5 (-115)
NOTE - Both teams have yet to unveil their choice of pants. Maybe the Saints will pleasantly surprise us and actually wear gold pants.
UPDATE - Black pants for the Panthers. And white pants for the Saints. If the Saints used the color rush pants (with a stripe), this would be much more palatable.
Jets at Dolphins. Woof. The runner-up for worst of the week.* The Jets cannot quit the dreadful white-over-black ensemble, and the Dolphins surprised us all by only wearing throwbacks once this season (and not wearing the white throwbacks at all). A disappointing end to a disappointing second half of the season for both teams. I'm going to hold my nose and pick the Dolphins, but I'm disappointed in everyone involved.
The Jets are out of the playoff hunt, but they can still play spoiler to the Dolphins in Week 18. Miami will be scoreboard watching Patriots-Bills. If Buffalo takes care of New England, the Dolphins can win and get in. If the Dolphins lose, the door is opened for Pittsburgh (and even Jacksonville if they lose the game against the Titans). It's hard to get excited for Joe Flacco vs. Skylar Thompson, but the playoff implications keep this one watchable.
*I had Jets-Dolphins and Titans-Jaguars as virtual ties for worst of the week. Dolphins and Jags are both rocking radioactive unitards. And the Jets and Titans are sporting some of the worst outfits in the league. Titans-Jags ended up with the seat of shame based on a collective worse ranking in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings.
The Pick: Dolphins -3 (-115)
Texans at Colts. The only good thing this one has going for it happens to be the Colts uniforms. Everything else is imminently forgettable. Indy all the way.
The only real intrigue in this game is whether Houston makes the first pick official with a loss. Indianapolis also has top five draft positioning to think about, but their immediate focus after this game will likely be finding a new coach (and perhaps also a new GM). All we know for sure is that Jim Irsay is unhappy. And with that, anything is possible. Keep an eye on Jim Harbaugh as a possible head coach candidate. The former NFL QB's playing career included a stint with the Colts (including an almost trip to Super Bowl XXX that came down to a failed Hail Mary in the AFC Championship Game against the Steelers).
The Pick: Colts -2.5 (-115)
NOTE - The Texans have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
UPDATE - Blue pants confirmed for the Texans.
Ravens at Bengals. We were some Bengals white pants away from a possible uniform matchup of the week (and a double Triple Mismatch Club battle to boot). But the black unitard for Cincinnati is a bit underwhelming. As such, the Ravens take the cake.
Before we get into this game and the NFL's perplexing rule change that seemingly gives the Bengals the short end of the no contest stick, I want to tip my cap to Zac Taylor. In an unprecedented moment, he had the presence, empathy, and grace to walk across that field, speak with Sean McDermott, and tell him that they didn't need to play that game. Bravo, Coach Taylor. As for this game, the Bengals should be able to take care of the Ravens sans Lamar Jackson. But the NFL's late season rulebook change will never make sense to me* - especially where the Bengals may be forced to flip a coin and go to Baltimore in the playoffs despite having a better record and winning the AFC North. And if we're flipping coins, why wouldn't we flip one for a hypothetical Bengals-Bills divisional round game? The entire thing seems unfair to the Bengals. I just hope Cincinnati takes care of business in this one so the coin toss doesn't happen (and it isn't later used as an asterisk of sorts hanging over the 2022 postseason).
*If it were up to me, the records would be what they are and winning percentage would continue to carry the day. No neutral field options. No coin tosses. Just play everything out as if the Bills and Bengals tied. The NFL absolutely made the right decision postponing and ultimately cancelling the Bills-Bengals game. I just think they overreached in trying to remedy the situation. Zac Taylor said it best: "We have the opportunity to play for a coin flip that will only negatively impact us. We don't have the opportunity to play for a coin flip that will positively impact us . . . Let's just follow the rules."
The Pick: Ravens +9.5 (-110)
Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play
Broncos at Chargers. While changes are needed in Denver (both in the wardrobe and on the field), the orange-over-white outfit is currently the best in their wardrobe. And the Chargers road whites are an excellent complement. Los Angeles is the slam dunk selection, but this one isn't half bad overall.
The Broncos nightmare season is mercifully about to end. And the Chargers Super Bowl quest is just getting started. Los Angeles was the Bets Dressed preseason Super Bowl pick, and Brandon Staley has his team peaking at the right time. Whether the Chargers play starters will largely depend on the result of Ravens-Bengals, so this one could go any direction.
The Pick: Chargers +3.5 (-115)
NOTE - The Chargers have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
Rams at Seahawks. Don't need to spend too much time on this uniform matchup. The Rams modern throwback look is among the best outfits in the league. And the Seahawks are in desperate need for a change (at least the royal throwbacks are returning next season). Rams in an easy one.
Most football fans will likely be rooting for the Rams to ensure that the Sunday Night Football contest between the Lions and Packers is a true playoff game. I'd be lying if I said I didn't share a similar sentiment. But what the Seahawks have done this season has been nothing short of extraordinary. Geno Smith is the no-doubt Comeback Player of the Year.* And this may be Pete Carroll's best coaching job of his career. I wouldn't mind in the slightest if we get to see this Cinderella story continue into the playoffs. But I think Baker Mayfield and the boys have other ideas. Add in the fact that this might be Sean McVay's last game as the Rams head coach, and Los Angeles will be ready to give everything it has to play spoiler to a division rival.
*If they give CPOY to anyone else, it's a travesty.
The Pick: Rams +6 (-115)
NOTE - Both teams have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
UPDATE - Blue pants for the Rams.
Cowboys at Commanders. I'm hard on the Commanders and their league-worst wardrobe. But credit where credit is due. The fastest way to my heart is forcing the Cowboys to wear blue on the road. One of the all-time great uniform strategy tropes. However, it's still not enough to be the pick. The Cowboys in navy still boast an elite uniform, and Dallas is the easy choice.
The Cowboys will likely be watching Giants-Eagles throughout this one. If Philly pulls away from New York, Dallas will have nothing left to play for. So some starters may wind up getting rest. The Commanders are giving Sam Howell his first career start. There are few defenders I'd least like to go against in my first NFL start than Micah Parsons. But it takes a special breed to play this game, and I'm sure Howell knows what he signed up for. I think Dallas takes care of business against the inferior opponent - starters or otherwise.
The Pick: Cowboys -7 (-110)
Giants at Eagles. The yin and yang matchup of the week. The Giants in icy white, and the Eagles in all black. New York gets the nod, but I don't hate the Philly blackout look.
Life without Jalen Hurts has not been as easy as many expected (myself included). I'm a huge believer in Hurts, but I thought the strength of the Eagles roster would carry the day regardless of who was under center. Not so fast, my friend. Now Philadelphia finds itself in danger of falling all the way to the No. 5 seed if they lose and the Cowboys win. The Giants have locked up the No. 6 seed and resting starters is likely. So the Eagles should be able to handle the Giants B Squad. But crazier things have happened.
The Pick: Giants +14.5 (-110)
Prepare for red overload in Cardinals at 49ers. Even with white jerseys, the Cardinals cannot hide from red bleeding in from the excessive panels, piping, and striping. And the result is a clash fest against their division rivals in San Francisco. The Niners are Will Hunting in this one; it's not their fault, and they're the obvious choice here.
San Francisco can guarantee at least the No. 2 seed with a win. But they'll have to be scoreboard watching the Eagles to see if they can usurp to the top spot in the NFC. The Cardinals have nothing to play for other than draft position, and the only drama remaining in their 2022 season is whether the coach and GM keep their jobs at year's end.
The Pick: 49ers -14 (-115)
NOTE - The Cardinals have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
Lions at Packers. For my money, the game of the week. And easily on the shortlist of best uniform matchups of Week 18. As I've said multiple times this season, the Lions wardrobe continues to grow on me. A well executed redesign can propel them into the Top 10 of the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings. The Packers home greens are as timeless and classic as ever. Green Bay gets the nod.
As I said above, I've enjoyed the Seahawks run this season, but I'd be lying if I wasn't pulling for the Rams to pull the upset and allow us to have a true playoff game on Sunday Night Football. Will the Fightin' Dan Campbells break the Detroit playoff drought? Or will Aaron Rodgers and the Packers complete one of the great season turnarounds in recent memory. Rodgers is the King of the (NFC) North for a reason, and the uniform gods have steered us toward his side. All I really want is a storybook sendoff for the 2022 regular season. And Lions-Packers has the juice to deliver.
The Pick: Packers -5 (-110)
NOTE - The Lions have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
UPDATE - White pants for the Lions. I'm not mad. Just disappointed.
The Gridiron Uniform Database.
The uniform graphics you see here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. It is my favorite site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casual fans alike. This is especially the case during the season. I check the site multiple times a day to keep tabs on who’s wearing what.
Drop me a line.
You can always find me on Twitter at NFL Fashion Advice (@fashion_nfl) or via email at [email protected]. Come talk uniforms and all things football, and let me know what you think of the newsletter.
Coming Attractions.
Let the postseason fun begin. Keep an eye out for the Wildcard Round issue, which will drop on Saturday before the first game kicks off.
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And always remember: Look Good. Feel Good. Pay Good.