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Bets Dressed - Week 17 - Uniform Matchups and Picks

Happy New Year! Hard to believe it's the second to last week of the regular season. Always a bittersweet moment. Sad that the 2022 season is inching toward the end but excited that the 2022 postseason is almost upon us. And this year's playoffs are shaping up to a doozy (both on the field and in the uniform department).

The Arctic Cowboys got us in the winning column to kick off Week 17. Let's keep the good times rolling.

A quick note on methodology.

As always, I’m analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best. And just because a team’s wardrobe is ranked higher in the Power Rankings doesn’t mean that it will automatically win the uniform matchup. It’s what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.

I’ll also be crowning the best matchup of the week and shaming the worst matchup of the week. It’s the over for the sharpest matchup and the under for the dullest.

And don’t forget the Triple Mismatch Club. I’m making three units plays whenever the best dressed team in the matchup is a member of the Club (different colored helmet, jersey, and pants). And nine units plays if both members of the week’s best matchup are members.

Keep an eye out for a “NOTE” here and there where teams have not fully unveiled what they will be wearing before the writing of this issue. I’ll make my best guess as to their outfit, and it won’t affect my ability to pick a winner. I’ll also try to update after the fact if possible so each weekly issue can be a reference point for what a team wore on a given week.

Week 17 Uniform Matchups and Picks.

Any other week, Colts at Giants would be knocking on the door of best of the week. But in such a stacked Week 17, this matchup is closer to middle of the road than top of the mountain. Regardless, I'm excited to see this one on the screen. The Colts get the nod, but top marks all around.

The Giants can punch their ticket to the playoffs in year one of the Brian Daboll era. And what a year it has been. Their Cinderella luster has worn off a bit and no one looks at New York as a threat in the playoffs, but it cannot be overstated how well Daboll and company have done with this roster in year one. The Colts have all but bottomed out. Let's see if they can wash the bad taste out of our mouths and deliver a cover.

The Pick: Colts +5.5 (-110)

Bears at Lions is my runner up for best of the week. And it's the first of two games today that I score as a true tie. The Lions 1950s throwbacks are among my favorite outfits in the league. They're admittedly plain as can be, but they let Honolulu blue and silver be the rightful stars of the show. The Bears road whites are also among the best in the league. Tie goes to the higher ranked uniform wardrobe in our Power Rankings, so Chicago takes the cake.

It looks like Detroit's 1-6 start may be too much to overcome. The Lions were gashed on the ground by the Panthers last week and now must try to corral Justin Fields amidst licking their wounds. Fields has been an absolute electric factory this season - one of the most exciting players in football. He's only 195 yards short of Lamar Jackson's single-season quarterback rushing record. And the Lions are the worst team in the NFL against rushing quarterbacks. Buckle up.

The Pick: Bears +6 (-110)

The Jaguars can do no wrong when they feature teal. And the Texans made uniform headlines this week unveiling a fan survey to assist in a possible uniform redesign. Good news all around. But for the time being, Houston's outfits are a snooze fest. And Jacksonville runs away with it.

This game is virtually meaningless for the Jags. The showdown with the Titans next week will be for all the marbles in the AFC South. So I'm surprised the Jaguars aren't treating this one as a pseudo bye week. Trevor Lawrence is listed as questionable, and I wouldn't blame Jacksonville at all for sitting him down for a breather. The Texans have even less incentive for victory. They're two losses away from locking down the first pick in the draft (and presumably Bryce Young).

The Pick: Jaguars -3 (-115)

Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play

Panthers at Buccaneers. I'm loving this uniform matchup. It's always a delight when Carolina breaks out the blue jerseys.* And Tampa Bay is consistently one of the best dressed teams in the league. The Bucs get the slightest of nods, but any other week this one would be right there for best of the week.

The fate of the NFC South hangs in the balance. Nothing would make me happier than the Panthers and their electric running attack sneaking into the playoffs. But I think Tom Brady and the boys say enough is enough this week. The Bucs can lock up the division with a win and give themselves a much needed day off in Week 18. With Tampa Bay, Brady is 4-1 against the Panthers (the only loss coming earlier this year in a surprise 21-3 beatdown). I think the Bucs even the score and stamp their ticket to the playoffs.

*I would like to see the Panthers explore pairing the blue jersey with the black helmet.

The Pick: Buccaneers -3 (-115)

NOTE - The Panthers have yet to unveil their choice of pants.

Saints at Eagles. Another week and another example of the Saints being allergic to their champagne gold pants. I'll never understand it, but at least it makes my job easy. The Eagles are the pick.

Don't look now, but the NFC East has suddenly become interesting. The Cowboys are one more win and two more Eagles losses away from back-dooring their way into the division crown. Philadelphia will be without Jalen Hurts again, and the pressure will be on Gardner Minshew to take care of business and avoid a nightmare must-win scenario in Week 18. The Saints still have a longshot path to the NFC South crown and thus have something to play for. But the Eagles roster feels too good overall to drop two in a row. I think they slam the door on the Cowboys and lock up the NFC East (and the first overall seed in the NFC to boot).

The Pick: Eagles -5.5 (-110)

Browns at Commanders. The all-white ensemble may be the worst Browns road outfit. But it's still far better than the Commanders and their worst wardrobe in football (in Washington's defense, the burgundy jerseys are better than the white and black jerseys). Cleveland in an easy decision.

The Browns have been eliminated from postseason contention, but the Commanders are still alive and in control of their own destiny. If they win out, they're in. But the Packers, Seahawks, and Lions are all Browns fans this week. If the Commanders defense has a slight weakness, it's on the ground. And no one brings their lunch pail to work and runs it down your throat like Nick Chubb and this Cleveland offensive line.

The Pick: Browns +2.5 (-110)

NOTE - The Commanders have yet to unveil their choice of pants.

As AFC East rivals, this is the second time the Dolphins and Patriots are meeting this season. And the second time they wasted an opportunity to have a throwback-on-throwback uniform matchup of the year. You hate to see it. Thumbs down all around for the wasted talent. But when forced to pick, I'm holding my nose and going with the Patriots.

The 7th seed in the AFC playoffs is on the line in this one. The Dolphins will be without Tua Tagovailoa as he recovers from another concussion. Teddy Bridgewater has been a serviceable player throughout his career, but he looked out of sorts earlier this season. And as bad as the Patriots offense has been the season, the defense has been lights out. New England has the clear edge at home and is the rightful favorite. But Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle can blow things wide open regardless of who is under center.

The Pick: Patriots -2.5 (-110)

Broncos at Chiefs is one of the easiest uniform decisions of the week. The Broncos are in desperate need of an organizational reset following the George Paton*/Nathaniel Hackett/Russell Wilson debacle. And what better way to communicate to the fans that you're working on a solution than with a return to the orange crush outfits? Just spitballing over here. The Chiefs continue to rock a timeless classic and are the pick here.

I touched on this during the Thursday issue when I selected Russell Wilson as a Single Digit Revolution play this week and will say it again here: INTERIM COACH GAME. Throw out the record book in an interim coach game. Anything is possible. The uniform gods have steered us toward the Chiefs, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't nervous about such a large spread with Jerry Rosburg taking over for Nathaniel Hackett (on the shortlist of worst head coaching tenures in NFL history). I'll be the one guy not surprised if the Broncos shock the world and pull off the upset.

*It's absurd to me that George Paton isn't getting the same level of heat that Hackett and Wilson have received following the worst Broncos season maybe ever. He's the one that hired Hackett, traded for Russ, and (most egregiously) gave Russ that massive extension before watching him play a snap in orange and navy.

The Pick: Chiefs -12.5 (-110)

NOTE - The Chiefs have yet to unveil their choice of pants.

Jets at Seahawks. The runner up for worst of the week. At least the Seahawks are breaking out the gray pants and avoiding the navy bodysuit. To nobody's surprise, the Jets - for the eight time this season - are going white over black. And as always, they make my job easy. Seattle it is.

At one point this season, the Jets were 5-2 and the Seahawks were 6-3. Now both are on the outside looking in on the playoff race. But hope is not completely lost. Both teams can still sneak in by winning out and getting some help. But the loser of this one is effectively eliminated. So let the playoff atmosphere commence. Mike White is back with the Jets. But Geno Smith is still with the Seahawks, and his revenge tour against his former employers has been epic - already defeating the Giants and Chargers. Let's see if he can go three-for-three against the Jets.

The Pick: Seahawks +2 (-110)

The Battle for Los Angeles.* The Rams and Chargers are two perfect examples of modern updates to classic looks. And it's hard to find better color palettes across professional sports. This is a closer call than people may think, but it's virtually impossible for any outfit to dethrone the Chargers in powder blue.

The Chargers are humming. And the Rams seem to have found a late-season spark with Baker Mayfield under center. Plus Cam Akers is finally playing up to his potential. While the Chargers have secured a playoff spot, they're still in a footrace with the Ravens for the 5th seed in the AFC. And you'd much rather pay a visit to the AFC South champion than the Bengals, Bills, or Chiefs. I like the Chargers to take care of business, but it wouldn't surprise me if Baker and the boys kept things close.

*For a game in Los Angeles without a true road team, will there be any fans in attendance? I only kid, Rams and Chargers fans.

The Pick: Chargers -6.5 (-110)

NOTE - The Chargers have yet to unveil their choice of pants.

Vikings at Packers is always a solid uniform matchup. The color palettes complement each other perfectly. While I have the Vikings in the "Wasted Talent" tier, the Packers always bring out their aesthetic best. Green Bay is the choice, and the national afternoon audience will be treated to a great looking one from Lambeau.

Believe it or not, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are very much alive in the NFC wildcard race. A win here, a win against Detroit, and a loss by Washington this week or next week will have the Packers dancing. Before that can happen, Green Bay has to avenge their Week 1 loss the NFC North champion Vikings - a 12-3 team that I still am not convinced is good. One thing is for sure, Minnesota can slam the door on their arch-nemesis with a win. But if past history is an indicator of future success, consider me content to be on the Packers side in this one.

The Pick: Packers -3 (-115)

Steelers at Ravens is always a treat on the NFL calendar. Not so long ago, this was the best rivalry in the league. While I would have preferred to see the Ravens in purple over white, the Ravens are one of the few teams that can get away with an all-black look (the Steelers being another). The Triple Mismatch Club Steelers and their yellow pants bring much needed contrast to this one. And Pittsburgh gets the nod as a result.

The Steelers 13-10 victory against the Raiders on Franco's night was the feel-good moment of the season.* But it wasn't just a feel-good moment. Kenny Pickett's late touchdown pass kept the Steelers in postseason contention. They need a lot of help still, but the dream is alive (as is Mike Tomlin's streak of .500 or better seasons). Lamar Jackson is set to sit out another game, so the Steelers will be very live dogs.

*How can you not be romantic about football?

The Pick: Steelers +2.5 (-110)

Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play

Bills at Bengals. Like Bears-Lions, this is the second game on today's slate I have as a true tie. The Bills have arguably the best icy white outfit in the league (second only to the Bengals in my humble opinion). And it's hard to go wrong with the Triple Mismatch Club Bengals in orange, black, and white. The Bills are the pick by way of being the higher ranked team (by only one spot) in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings.

The game of the week. And it's not particularly close. The 12-3 Bills against the 11-4 Bengals. A Cincinnati victory will allow them to leapfrog the Bills in the AFC standings (and hold the tiebreaker over both the Bills and Chiefs). This one will also go a long in deciding the MVP race. With the injury to Jalen Hurts, it feels like a three-horse race between Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and Patrick Mahomes (with Justin Jefferson lingering but relegated to the OPOY consolation prize). If Burrow can beat Allen, that gives him victories over the other two contenders and a feather in his cap to waive around when each contender has their case considered. But Josh Allen isn't going to just let that happen. The buzzsaw Bills have won six in a row, and home field advantage is theirs to lose. Just get me to Monday night. I haven't been this excited for a regular season matchup in a long time.

The Pick: Bills -1 (-110)

Worst NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 17.

Cardinals at Falcons is the clear choice for worst of the week and a contender for worst of the year. Two basement dwelling wardrobes in desperate need of change. Fortunately, I think an Arizona update is in the near future. As for Atlanta, we're stuck with these for the next few years - at least. In the meantime, the Falcons will continue to be a mainstay in this category.

This late in the season, it's hard to avoid football games that are truly meaningless - outside of draft positioning. David Blough against Desmond Ridder isn't exactly title fight material. But from a bet-the-under perspective, things could be worse. Blough is 0-5 in his career as a starter, averaging 16 points per game. Ridder is 0-2 the last two weeks in his first two starts, averaging 14 points per game. If those trends hold, we'll be sitting pretty with the total.

The Pick: Under 41.5 (-110)

NOTE - The Cardinals have yet to unveil their choice of pants.

Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 17.

Silver and Gold. The Burl Ives Bowl.* 49ers at Raiders is as good as it gets. But that doesn't mean this was an easy decision. This was the most loaded slate of the season. Bears-Lions, Rams-Chargers, and Bills-Bengals were all right there in contention. Plus Colts-Giants and Panthers-Bucs weren't too far behind. With that said, I'm content with the decision. The white, red, and gold of the Niners pair perfectly with the silver and black of the Raiders. Just sit back and enjoy.

The game once known as the Battle of the Bay will be appointment viewing from a uniform perspective. But the game itself leaves much to be desired following the benching of Derek Carr** by the Raiders. For our purposes, it's all about the points. With Jarrett Stidham taking the reins for Vegas, we'll be putting our faith in San Francisco to get us over the total. The Niners have won eight straight and are averaging 29 points per game in that stretch. And five of those eight wins have cleared the number here. In Brock Purdy and Co. we trust.

*For those keeping score, that's the second Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer movie reference in the history of the Bets Dressed newsletter.

**For whatever it's worth, I have no issue with Vegas shutting down Carr. They aren't going anywhere this season, and it's not worth risking Carr getting hurt with the injury guarantees in his contract. Carr has a no-trade clause and a large contract, so moving him will be incredibly difficult. I expect him to be released instead. Look for the Jets, Colts, Commanders, and others to be in on Carr (but not at the number he's currently making). As for the Raiders, my money is on Tom Brady in free agency or Mac Jones via trade. It's going to be a fun offseason.

The Pick: Over 41.5 (-115)

The Gridiron Uniform Database.

The uniform graphics you see here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. It is my favorite site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casual fans alike. This is especially the case during the season. I check the site multiple times a day to keep tabs on who’s wearing what.

Drop me a line.

You can always find me on Twitter at NFL Fashion Advice (@fashion_nfl) or via email at [email protected]. Come talk uniforms and all things football, and let me know what you think of the newsletter.

Coming Attractions.

No more Thursday Night Football. So we'll be back for regular season finale before the two Saturday games.

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