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- Bets Dressed - Week 16 - Thursday Night Football Uniform Matchup and Player Props
Bets Dressed - Week 16 - Thursday Night Football Uniform Matchup and Player Props
Merry Christmas Week in the NFL. And that means three more weeks in the regular season but only two more Thursday games. The Saints are making the most of their trip to Hollywood for the penultimate edition of Thursday Night Football by bringing back a fan favorite uniform. A move worthy of canonization.
Ladies and gentlemen, the Many Saints of Hollywood Bowl!
A quick note on methodology.
As always, I’m analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best. And just because a team is ranked higher in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings doesn’t mean it will automatically win the uniform matchup. It’s what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.
Looking back at Week 15.
8-6-2 on the week. 117-99-8 on the season. Let’s see what Old Saint Nick and the Uniform Gods have in store for us this week.
Thursday Night Football Uniform Matchup.
Well would you look at that. It’s a Christmas miracle. The Saints excellent color rush throwbacks* have returned. The Rams answered with their sharpest blue uniform. But call me Santa Claus because the Saints are getting a gift in the form of this pick.
Saints-Rams is as high stakes as we’ve seen this year on Thursday Night Football. The playoff race is all around us, and it’s especially important in this one. If the Saints win, they have a 68% chance to make the playoffs. If the Rams win, they have a 67% chance to make the playoffs. But if the Saints lose, they have only a 20% chance to make the playoffs. And if the Rams lose, they have a dismal 8% chance to make the playoffs. While it’s not officially a loser leaves town game, it’s close. From a pure football perspective, I’d prefer to see this Rams team in the dance.** But we worship at the altar of the Uniform Gods, and they’re steering us to the Saints.
*If the Saints would match the helmet and uniform golds, this would be one of the best uniforms in football. I’m personally a fan of Vanderbilt’s current shade. Not as washed out as champagne gold. And not as mustardy as old gold.
**Saints cover and Rams win? Could we be so bold?
The Pick: Saints +4.5
Bonus: Saturday Uniform Matchups.
With Christmas Week in the NFL consisting of multiple games on Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, I’m breaking things up this year and including the Saturday games in this Thursday issue. My newsletter, my rules.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Bengals at Steelers is frequently a sharp AFC North showdown. But this matchup leaves something to be desired with the Bengals in black pants.* The Steelers never disappoint in their classic home attire, and they get the nod.
Bengals-Steelers is a tale of teams with backup quarterbacks moving in different directions. Jake Browning has been a revelation while Mitch Trubisky has been benched in favor of Mason Rudolph. But Mike Tomlin and Steelers have even bigger problems than the quarterback position. The mutiny continues with players giving minimal effort and showing little to no fight on a weekly basis.** But Tomlin still has never finished with a losing record. With three games to go, the time is now to land this 7-7 ship on the right side of .500.
*White pants last week and white pants this week would’ve had us cooking with gas.
**While I do not think there is any real chance that Tomlin’s job is in danger, this is the first time I can remember a number of prominent voices openly asking the question. For whatever it’s worth, the man would be snatched up immediately (and the Steelers would be better off trading him for a bevy of picks if they really did want to shake things up).
The Pick: Steelers +2
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Bills at Chargers safely made the best of the week shortlist, but it fell just short of the top spot. The Billys icy whites are some of the best in the league. And the Chargers powder blues are the best in the league. Los Angeles is the pick, but top marks all around.
You better watch out. You better not cry. You better not pout. I’m telling you why. Josh Allen and back-from-the-dead Buzzsaw Bills are coming to town. Allen has been playing at an MVP level all season, and the team around him is rising to his level. If the Bills can get into the playoffs (and even win the AFC East), look out. There’s no team more dangerous in the AFC. Which brings us to the Easton Stick Chargers - arguably the least dangerous team in the AFC. But Brandon Staley is finally gone after last week’s 63-21 shellacking. Which means another interim coach game* is on deck. There’s no better gambling hack in the NFL, so let’s hope Giff Smith** leads us to the cover here (although I have my doubts).
*Interim coach games are 2-0 against the spread this year. Antonio Pierce with the Raiders and Chris Tabor with the Panthers both got the cover (Pierce in victory and Tabor in defeat).
**Yes that is the name of an actual person.
The Pick: Chargers +12.5
NOTE - The Chargers have yet to reveal their choice of pants.
Club SDR - Week 16 Player Props.
2-1 on the week. 29-16 on the year. In the spirit of Christmas, let’s see if some red and green(ish) Single Digit Revolutionaries can land us on the nice list.
Rachaad White - Over 72.5 Rushing Yards
Rachaad White has been a revelation for the Bucs this season. The second-year back is Top 10 in rushing yards, and he’s cleared the number in his last four games (averaging 94 yards per game). I think him to do it again at home against the reeling Jags.
Tua Tagovailoa - Over 263.5 Passing Yards
Tua is the NFL’s leader in passing yards, and he draws the potent Dallas defense next. As much as this may not look like a good spot on paper, I can’t escape this feeling that Cowboys-Dolphins is going to be a repeat of Seahawks-Cowboys - a back-and-forth aerial barnburner. If my hunch is correct, Tua should cruise to cover the number.
Kyler Murray - Over 215.5 Passing Yards
It’s been up and down for Kyler since his return. But his Top 10 QB potential is apparent (it’s just a matter of living up to it). The Bears are Bottom 10 against the pass but have tightened things up in the run game since acquiring Montez Sweat. If James Conner has trouble getting his, look for the Cardinals to lean on Kyler through the air. And if that’s the case, this relatively low number should be surmountable.
The Gridiron Uniform Database.
The uniform graphics you see here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. Best site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casuals alike.
Coming Attractions.
Keep an eye out for the Week 16 remaining slate breakdown to drop Sunday morning. Ten games on Christmas Eve and three games on Christmas Day. Because we live in a world without an NFL uniform scheduling czar, we’re at the mercy of the teams deciding and announcing their uniform combos each week. Where it’s not 100% clear before posting, I’ll make a best guess and update after the fact for posterity.
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