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- Bets Dressed - Week 14 - Uniform Matchups and Picks
Bets Dressed - Week 14 - Uniform Matchups and Picks
Week 14 is very much an eye of the beholder week. It certainly won’t be competing for best aesthetics of the season. But there’s still plenty to enjoy (including some truly elite football games). Speaking of eye of the beholder, nothing jumps out to me as the obvious best of the week. There are a handful of matchups that I could wrap my brain around for the top spot. And there were two in particular that I went back and forth over. But enough preamble. Let’s get to it.
A quick note on methodology.
As always, I’m analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best. And just because a team is ranked higher in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings doesn’t mean it will automatically win the uniform matchup. It’s what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.
Week 14 Uniform Matchups and Picks.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
As noted at the top, I agonized over best uniform matchup this week. And Colts-Bengals was as close as a runner-up can get.* The orange and black of Cincinnati pair perfectly with the Indianapolis blue and white. I occasionally see people complaining about white pant clash, which I personally find absurd. White is a neutral color, and the white elements of this uniform matchup allow the orange and black elements of the Bengals (plus the blue accents of the Colts) to really pop. Moreover, the orange tiger stripes of the Bengals play beautifully off the blue double stripes of the Colts. Feels wrong to pick a winner here, but the Triple Mismatch Club Bengals take the cake. Could not be more excited to see this one on the screen.
Jake Browning, ladies and gentlemen. What a Monday Night Football debut.** But Browning isn’t the only electric factory that played college football in the State of Washington. Enter Gardner Minshew for an Apple Cup redux. The Colts have been frisky all season, and they control their own destiny for a playoff spot. The Bengals have had a season to forget, but they aren’t playing possum. If Browning can continue to be 80% of what Joe Burrow is, this Cincy team has a puncher’s chance at the playoffs and should cover the number here.
*Wouldn’t shock me if I leave the weekend appreciating Colts-Bengals more than any other matchup. The last time these teams had a strong uniform matchup in Cincinnati was 1996. But the Colts blue pants keep making appearances at practice, and I have a feeling they’re going break them out for a road game eventually. As someone who isn’t a fan of the white-white-blue Colts look - especially against the orange-black-white Bengals - I try to avoid being bait and switched with a best of the week honoree (all the more reason for NFL teams to reveal their confirmed uniform during the week).
**And would you look at that? The White Bengal uniform is now 4-0.
The Pick: Bengals -1
NOTE - The Colts have yet to reveal their choice of pants.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Lions at Bears in a nice little NFC North matchup. Detroit looks best when they leave the white practice pants in the closet. And the Bears can do little wrong so long as they keep the orange helmet locked away in some nuclear reactor. As much as the Lions uniform have grown on me, Chicago is still the clear choice here (assuming they don’t surprise with navy pants).
Only three weeks ago, the Bears almost pulled off the upset at Ford Field. While they may have caught the Lions taking them lightly once, I don’t expect it to happen again. But Justin Fields always seems to bring the electricity against the Lions - averaging 128 rushing yards per game in his last three against Detroit. If the Bears are going to hang around in this one - and deliver the cover - there needs to be plenty more where that came from.
The Pick: Bears +3.5
NOTE - The Bears have yet to reveal their choice of pants.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
I had Rams at Ravens circled as a best of the week contender. But neither side did what needed to be done. Blue pants are a perplexing choice for the Rams where yellow would serve as a much better complement against the purple and black of the Ravens. And I’m never a fan of the purple unitard* from Baltimore when they have so many better options in their wardrobe.** I’m going with the Rams here, but oh what could’ve been.
From a pure football perspective, I’m more excited for Rams-Ravens than any other game on the slate. In particular, I’m fascinated to see the Sean McVay Rams offense up against the Mike Macdonald Ravens defense. Mc vs Mac, if you will. While the Ravens lead the league in defensive expected points, they’re quietly giving up the seventh most rushing yards per attempt to opposing running backs since Week 6. And Kyren Williams will be in town to exploit that vulnerability. Los Angeles may not be able to pull off the upset in Baltimore, but I except this one to be closer than the spread suggests.
*For whatever it’s worth, I do prefer this version of the Ravens purple unitard to the Color Rush variety. The white numbers and black and white stripe are superior to the mustard gold variety.
**I was especially rooting for an appearance of black-black-purple.
The Pick: Rams +7.5
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Jaguars at Browns in a sneaky good Triple Mismatch Club showdown. It’s always a reason to celebrate when Jacksonville does the right thing and features teal. And Cleveland never disappoints in orange-brown-white. The Browns are the selection, but top marks all around.
Add the Trevor Lawrence injury to the list of 2023 NFL bummers. Hopefully he’s able to return sooner than later, but his absence - for whatever period of time - alters the trajectory of a Jacksonville team that had its eyes on the one seed and a first round bye. Across the sideline, the Browns look like they’ve found their quarterback for the rest of the season in Joe Flacco. All kidding aside, he’s far from an elite quarterback. But he’s serviceable enough to keep Cleveland in the playoff race (and perhaps even capable of stealing a playoff game). If it’s CJ Beathard here (and I’d be surprised if it wasn’t), he’s in for a miserable experience against this Browns defense.
The Pick: Browns -2.5
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Buccaneers at Falcons finds itself as one of the more forgettable uniform matchups of Week 14. The Falcons blackout look is held back by its many flaws. But credit to Tampa Bay for going icy white and saving us from a dark and dreary affair overrun by pewter against black. Bucs by a mile.
Don’t look now, but Bucs-Falcons is one of the most important games of the weekend from a playoff perspective. Winner of this one gets a serious boost in the NFC South race. Tampa Bay is coming off a much needed win against Carolina courtesy of another line from the Mike Evans Hall of Fame application.* And after a brutal 1-6 midseason stretch, this is the time to get hot. The Falcons may have taken the first meeting 16-13 in Tampa Bay. But something** tells me the Bucs even up the season series and position themselves for a playoff push.
*In my book, Evans is a Hall of Famer. Ten years and ten 1,000-yard seasons. Not everyday you see that level of sustained production from the jump.
**I’m going to will a re-appearance of Bucco Bruce into existence. Think about it. It’s a late season must-win game. Gotta have it to stay in the race. What better way to shake up the mojo than our favorite creamsicle swashbuckler.
The Pick: Buccaneers +2
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Panthers at Saints has strong uniform matchup potential, but it rarely seems to live up to it. And this year is no different. The Saints three-gold throwback is a mess - and one of the most off-putting members of the Triple Mismatch Club. The mustard gold pants are an eyesore. And using the champagne gold helmet with this look is such an unforced error.* With our luck, the Panthers will make matters even worse with black pants. But Carolina is the pick regardless.
The Panthers delivered the cover in the interim coach game, but they still can’t buy a win. The Saints are in team building purgatory. Too old. Too expensive. And not too good. Bryce Young and the Panthers have shown us nothing so far to inspire confidence in this outcome. But at the same time, neither have the Derek Carr Saints. Consider me content to take the points in this NFC South showdown.
*As I said in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings issue, I’m especially hard on teams with top tier potential. And the Saints fall into that category. A strong uniform wardrobe is in there somewhere, they just need to find it.
The Pick: Panthers +6
NOTE - The Panthers have yet to reveal their choice of pants.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Seahawks at 49ers is one of the most lopsided matchups of the week - aesthetically and otherwise. I’m still upset that Seattle didn’t rock the throwbacks on Thanksgiving, and I would’ve preferred gray pants here.* The Niners can do no wrong, and they run away with this one.
Only two weeks ago, the 49ers trounced the Seahawks 31-13 in Seattle. And that was with Geno Smith. Based on reports, it sounds like there is a very real possibility that Drew Lock will be under center for the Seahawks. And if that’s the case, batten down the hatches 12s. Boat race incoming.
*I’ve never been a fan of navy with the Seahawks. After seeing how good they look in royal, it’s hard to get behind any other color scheme.
The Pick: 49ers -11.5
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Vikings at Raiders. Party like it’s Super Bowl XI.* I may be lower on the Vikings than others, but this is a sharp uniform matchup. The Raiders at home always dress for success, and the Minnesota purple pairs well with the silver and black. Viva Las Vegas, but thumbs up overall.
It’s Josh Dobbs versus Aidan O’Connell. And I am here for it. The Passtronaut crashed back to Earth on Monday Night Football against the Bears. But the bye week brought more time to familiarize himself with his Vikings teammates - especially the hopefully returning Justin Jefferson. On the other side, O’Connell has been far from a world beater. But he’s shown that he can lead the Raiders to victory when not playing against quarterbacks named Herbert, Tagovailoa, or Mahomes. This feels like a true toss-up game, so I’m happy to be getting points at home in Sin City.
*Unless you’re a resident of Europe in the tenth century or the Caribbean in the seventeenth century. If that’s the case, then run for cover.
The Pick: Raiders +3
NOTE - The Vikings have yet to reveal their choice of pants.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Broncos at Chargers in an AFC West showdown. It’s no secret that I’m a huge fan of the Chargers aesthetic - they’re in the top spot of the Power Rankings for a reason. But the royal unitard is the weak point of their wardrobe. Yellow or white pants would go a long way to improve the look. But at the end of the day, there’s no reason to break out royal when you have pewter sitting in the closet. But I digress. With all of that said, I’m still giving Los Angeles the edge over the dated Broncos.
If it hasn’t already been made clear in this Week 14 breakdown, the postseason push is on. And this Broncos-Chargers game will have an impact on the AFC playoff picture.* As bad as the Chargers have been and as uninspiring as the 6-0 win in New England was last week, Los Angeles is still a Top 12 offensive unit led by one of the better quarterbacks in the game. The Broncos turnaround has been admirable, and Sean Payton should be commended. But I think the Chargers pop their playoff balloon in this one.
*Or at least the frame of the picture.
The Pick: Chargers -2.5
NOTE - The Broncos have yet to reveal their choice of pants.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Bills at Chiefs in an excellent uniform matchup. Complementary contrast personified. While I prefer the icy white Bills as a standalone uniform, blue pants are absolutely the correct choice against the Chiefs. The Chiefs look sharp in home red, but Buffalo gets the nod.
Fair warning to the league: don’t let the Bills get hot. Sure, it’s a steep climb. One more loss may do them in and two certainly would. But Josh Allen has been playing at an MVP level all season. And if this dude gets this team in the dance, look out. Doesn’t get much tougher than Arrowhead in December to start a miracle run. Patrick Mahomes will be looking to bounce back from last week’s loss on Sunday Night Football. But I can’t shake this feeling that Allen and the boys make things interesting down the stretch. And that starts with an upset in Kansas City.
The Pick: Bills +1.5
NOTE - The Chiefs have yet to reveal their choice of pants.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Eagles at Cowboys on Sunday Night Football might just be the game of the year. And Dallas dressed for the occasion wearing their fantastic Arctic Cowboy outfit. With the Eagles being forced to scrap their black helmet to allow for the return of Kelly Green, we never had a chance at a true yin and yang matchup. But I was somewhat expecting the Eagles to go green-black-back* in Big D. Philadelphia still looks sharp in their standard home uniform, and I’d take no issue if someone had this one as best of the week. While landing on the shortlist for me, it didn’t make the cut. The whiteout Cowboys are the pick.
Back in Week 9, the Cowboys seemingly outplayed the Eagles in Philadelphia but couldn’t get the job done. This time, Dallas is coming in with all of the momentum and the Eagles are reeling after getting trounced by the 49ers (and still not looking like their dominant 2022 selves). Winner of this one has the inside track on the NFC East crown. We know how dangerous both of these offenses can be, so I think the edge will come down to which defense can make more plays. The Cowboys defense is seventh in forced turnover percentage and third in expected points. The Eagles defense is 26th in both forced turnover percentage and expected points. Dan Quinn already earned his paycheck this week filling in for Mike McCarthy, but I think he goes the extra mile on Sunday and calls a defense resulting in victory - and ideally the cover.
*The green helmet with the black uniform always drives me nuts. The black helmet really brings the look together. I understand why the NFL limits teams to two helmets as it prevents the league’s aesthetic from going off the rails (e.g., the NBA). But Philly losing their excellent blackout look is unfortunate collateral damage.
The Pick: Cowboys -3.5
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
For the first time this season, the Dolphins are wearing aqua jerseys. And the Titans must have wanted to join the minty fresh party because they’re rocking light blue pants. While I’m always a sucker for powder blue, it’s not enough to save the Titans from their uniform flaws. Dolphins in a no brainer.
The Titans are coming off an OT heartbreaker against the Colts. And the Dolphins are coming off an absolute beatdown of the Commanders. Derrick Henry was knocked out of the game last week but is expected to return in this one. Since Week 9, Miami is giving up the fourth fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs. If they can keep Henry and emerging rookie Tyjae Spears contained, Tennessee is dead in the water. Knowing the Rogues Gallery will get theirs offensively, the cover is well within our grasp.
The Pick: Dolphins -13
Worst NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 14.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Feels like we’re running back the worst of the week from Week 13. From Falcons-Jets to Texans-Jets. A bottom tier dark-white-dark look visiting the New York Jets. It’s deja vu all over again. In fairness, and just like last week, this one won’t be competing for worst of the year. But it leaves much to be desired and is another example of how much Houston would (and hopefully will) benefit from a red helmet in the future.
Feels wrong to root against points in a CJ Stroud game, but we go where the Uniform Gods take us. At least we have the Jets going for us. New York is averaging an anemic nine points per game during their five game losing streak. All the Young Texans do is play close, exciting games. And if a Jets game is going to be close, it’s going to be low scoring.
The Pick: Under 33.5
Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 14.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
I’ve wanted to give best of the week to the Giants ever since they paired the navy helmet with the icy white throwbacks back in Week 6, and this matchup against the Packers finally presented the perfect opportunity. Every primary color is accounted for - plus some dark tones in green and navy - in an excellent example of complementary contrast. While it’s not for everyone, I’m a big fan of the Giants pairing a navy helmet with a royal jersey (and it’s a strong member of the Triple Mismatch Club to boot). The Packers are as classic as it gets and always offer sharp matchup potential where their yellow isn’t a cause for clashing. Bonus points for how this one is going to look under the Monday Night Football lights.
Jordan Love against Tommy DeVito. The Third Coming against the Cutlet King. Following a 2-5 start, the Packers have won four of their last five. And the Giants are winners of two straight and somehow still in the NFC playoff race (albeit on the outside miracle track). Focusing on the points, the DeVito-led Giants are averaging 16 points per game, and the Packers are averaging 24 points per game during their 4-1 stretch. Music to our over ears.
The Pick: Over 36.5
The Gridiron Uniform Database.
The uniform graphics you see here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. Best site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casuals alike.
Coming Attractions.
Another uniform week in the books. You know the drill. Back for more on Thursday.
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