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- Bets Dressed - Week 14 - Uniform Matchups and Picks
Bets Dressed - Week 14 - Uniform Matchups and Picks
Welcome to the Week 14 full slate breakdown. We've got a middle of the road uniform week. While there are few contenders for worst of the week, there is no truly elite best of the week matchup either. But if the on-the-field excitement can match the Baker Mayfield Miracle from Thursday night, we're in for a treat. Let's get down to business.
A quick note on methodology.
As always, I’m analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best. And just because a team’s wardrobe is ranked higher in the Power Rankings doesn’t mean that it will automatically win the uniform matchup. It’s what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.
I’ll also be crowning the best matchup of the week and shaming the worst matchup of the week. It’s the over for the sharpest matchup and the under for the dullest.
And don’t forget the Triple Mismatch Club. I’m making three units plays whenever the best dressed team in the matchup is a member of the Club (different colored helmet, jersey, and pants). And nine units plays if both members of the week’s best matchup are members.
Keep an eye out for a “NOTE” here and there where teams have not fully unveiled what they will be wearing before the writing of this issue. I’ll make my best guess as to their outfit, and it won’t affect my ability to pick a winner. I’ll also try to update after the fact if possible so each weekly issue can be a reference point for what a team wore on a given week.
Week 14 Uniform Matchups and Picks.
Nothing like starting with Ravens at Steelers, one of the best rivalries in sports. Whether it's Lamar Jackson versus Ben Roethlisberger or Tyler Huntley versus Kenny Pickett, this one always brings the intensity. I'm thrilled to see the Ravens breaking out the purple pants, which bring much needed contrast between two teams wearing black helmets. In a very close call, Steelers by a nose.
The big storyline here is no Lamar Jackson for the Ravens. And now that Baltimore is tied with Cincinnati at 8-4 atop the AFC North, each of the last five games will be critical. Tyler Huntley is one of the best backups in the NFL, and the Ravens smartly have a backup that mirrors the style of their starter. But the Steelers are on a two-game winning streak (and have won three of their last four). They'd be a tough out regardless of who is under center. Don't look now, but the Steelers have five very winnable games to end the season. Currently at 5-7, Pittsburgh is not out of the playoff hunt yet. Never count out a Mike Tomlin coached team. And Steelers by a field goal feels very doable in a tough divisional battle.
The Pick: Steelers -1.5 (-110)
I'm going to say something that might surprise people. This matchup is a Texans red helmet away from being right there for best matchup of the week. If Houston would lean into a touch a contrast, the sky is the limit for that wardrobe. But alas, we are left with the same blandness we are used to from Houston. Dallas can do no wrong with their primary home outfit. And the Cowboys are the easy choice.
The Cowboys are an absolute wagon. Having their way with teams on both offense and defense. 9-3 on the year and winners of three straight - including 37 and 35 point victories. Last week's win against the Colts featured a 33-point fourth quarter, the second most in NFL history.* The Texans appear to be on cruise control toward the first pick in the draft. The spread is massive in this one but, with how Dallas is playing, can't say I'm upset to be on the side of the favorites.
*The record for most points in a quarter belongs to the 2007 Detroit Lions. Led by Jon Kitna, the Lions scored 34 points in the fourth quarter to come back against the Bears in a 37-27 victory.
The Pick: Cowboys -17 (-115)
Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play
Browns at Bengals. If this was a Thursday Night Football game, I'd name it the Orange Bowl. It's inevitable to have orange-on-orange clash when these two teams meet.* And the result is a subpar uniform matchup between two well dressed teams. It's a toss-up decision, but the excellent Bengals home outfit takes the cake.
The Bengals may be the hottest team in football (next to the Cowboys). Burrow's MVP candidacy was a hot topic on various NFL shows throughout the week, and he's undeniably on the short list heading down the home stretch. Deshaun Watson looked far from an MVP-caliber player in his return to action last week. And it feels like ages ago that the Browns whooped the Bengals 32-13 on Halloween. Divisional matchups are always a crapshoot, but there's no denying that Cincinnati is the team moving in the more positive direction.
*The Bengals could solve this problem by wearing the white tiger ensemble.
The Pick: Bengals -3.5 (-110)
Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play
You gotta love an Eagles-Giants NFC East showdown in North Jersey. And the uniforms have risen to the occasion. I'm higher on the Giants than most, and I'm learning to love white pants over gray. Plus the Eagles look their best on the road in green pants. The Giants get the nod but solid marks all around.
The Eagles made a fairly competent Titans team look like a JV squad last week. AJ Brown showed Tennessee what they missed - and what Philadelphia gained. The Giants have been living on borrowed time since their 7-2 cinderella start. But they're still in a solid position to make the playoffs. An upset win against the Eagles would go a long to way to ensure they get there.
The Pick: Giants +7.5 (-110)
Vikings at Lions. While I enjoy the interplay of purple and Honolulu blue, I wish the Lions would stop it with the blue unitard. Detroit's look has grown on me this year, but this outfit and the Thanksgiving grays have left a bad taste in my mouth. The Vikings have their own room to improve, but they get the nod here.
The Lions have really come into their own lately - winning four of their last five, with only a three-point loss to the Bills. So it's not entirely shocking to see them slightly favored at home against the 10-2 Vikings. With that being said, I'm wondering if we're not giving Minnesota the respect they deserve. Justin Jefferson is on the shortlist for best receiver in the NFL, Dalvin Cook has quietly amassed the fifth most rushing yards in the league, and Kirk Cousins is top 10 in on-target percentage and completed air yards. Not too bad for a three-headed monster, and I've seen enough to consider the Vikings a bona fide Super Bowl contender in an NFC down year. With a win over the Lions, Minnesota will clinch the NFC North.
The Pick: Vikings +2.5 (-110)
NOTE - The Vikings have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
Eastern New York versus Western New York for the second time this season as the Jets visit the Bills to round out their season series. The funniest streak of the season is over. For the first time in the 2022 season, in Week 14, the New York Jets will be wearing green beneath the helmet. Meanwhile, the Bills continue the most frustrating streak of the season: an obsession with the blue unitard look. It's still a sharper look than the Jets, but the Bills will likely go down a few pegs in next year's iteration of the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings.
Of all the games in Week 14, this is the one I'm most curious to watch. The top five defense of the Jets visiting the top five offense of the Bills. What's not to like? The Jets upset the Bills earlier this season, so revenge will be on the mind of everyone in Buffalo. The Jets lost a winnable game in Minnesota last week with a dreadful showing at the goal line. And a loss against the Bills here will land them in the danger zone for the final four games of the season.
The Pick: Bills -9.5 (-110)
Chiefs-Broncos is arguably the easiest decision of the day. The dated Broncos against the timeless Chiefs. Admittedly, It's nice to get a pop of John Elway nostalgia when the Broncos go navy, but it'd be much more palatable with white pants (with orange stripes to match the jersey). The Chiefs in classic road white are the pick.
You'd think the 9-3 Chiefs shouldn't have too much difficulty against the 3-9 Broncos. The Denver defense is one of the best units in the league (fourth in expected points, third in yards per play, and second in points allowed). If the Broncos ever get league average offensive output from Russell Wilson and the rest of the offense, they're going to catch someone by surprise. But it's the tallest of orders against the Chiefs and their league-best offense (first in expected points, first in yards per play, and first in points scored). Consider me content to be on the Kansas City side (even on the road laying the points).
The Pick: Chiefs -8.5 (-110)
NOTE - The Chiefs have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
Panthers at Seahawks was never going to be one of the week's best, but the Seahawks brought it down another notch with the gray pants. Something about this outfit just looks off. The blue and green throwbacks cannot come soon enough. The Panthers continue to be one of the more underrated wardrobes in the league. But as I've said before, I expect a redesign in the near future. The Panthers are the easy choice in an otherwise forgettable matchup.
As forgettable as the uniform matchup may be, I'm weirdly into this game. Geno Smith and the Seahawks have been one of the stories of the season. And I've enjoyed watching the Panthers in recent weeks. I especially love the running style of D'Onta Foreman. Now this will certainly come off as a hot take, but I actually think the Panthers and their ground game have been better off with Foreman than they were with Christian McCaffrey. With McCaffrey, the Panthers were 1-5 as he averaged 66 rushing yards per game. With Foreman, the Panthers are 3-3 as he's averaging 88 rushing yards per game. I'm just saying. And would you look at that? Up next is the Seahawks and the fourth worst rushing defense in the league by yards allowed.
The Pick: Panthers +4 (-115)
NOTE - The Panthers have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
The Buccaneers and 49ers are somewhat mirror images of each other when it comes to their wardrobes. Each features red as a primary color paired with a metallic counterpart. And both are among the top 10 wardrobes in the league. The Niners are certainly the better of the two (and the pick here), but imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. And I'm excited to watch these excellent outfits on the screen.
How many of you had 49ers starting quarterback Brock Purdy on your 2022 NFL bingo card? And how many had Tom Brady as an underdog against Brock Purdy on that same bingo card? Same here. The underdog bit is especially surprising. Admittedly, the Bucs have looked off all year long, and it took another instance of Tom Brady heroics to pull out a win against the Saints on Monday night. But it's hard to fathom Tom Brady losing a game to Mr. Irrelevant of the most recent draft class. And yet, that San Francisco defense is hard to deny. Nick Bosa appears to have (rightfully) positioned himself as the primary challenger to Micah Parsons for DPOY. And Fred Warner continues to be an albatross at linebacker. If anyone can carry Brock Purdy to a victory against the GOAT, it's this defense.
The Pick: 49ers -3.5 (-105)
Monday Night Football between the Patriots and Cardinals. It leaves a lot to be desired from a uniform perspective, especially on the Arizona side. But New England's look gets the job done. And they're the easy choice in this one.
While the Cardinals season is lost, the Patriots still have a puncher's chance at the postseason - especially with losses from the Chargers and Jets this week. It's hard to find a more lopsided coaching matchup between Bill Belichick and Kliff Kingsbury. Belichick's career winning percentage: .671. Kingsbury's career winning percentage: .460. Kind of says it all. But for added measure: Belichick is 5-1 as a head coach against the Cardinals (4-1 as coach of the Patriots). My money is on this trend to continue.
The Pick: Patriots -1.5 (-110)
Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play IF the Patriots wear blue pants.
NOTE - Both teams have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
Worst NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 14.
In a week with few worst of the week contenders, Jaguars at Titans claims the seat of shame. The Titans navy bodysuit is the worst outfit in one of the worst wardrobes in the league. And the Jaguars teal pants aren't enough to save this one from the bottom spot.
The AFC South has been one of the worst divisions in football this year (second to only its NFC directional counterpart). A Titans victory here will all but put the question of the division winner to bed. But a Jaguars victory could potentially make things interesting down the home stretch (especially with a Week 18 matchup between these teams still to come). With Jacksonville and Tennessee being two bottom-half scoring offenses, the under isn't a terrible side to be on - especially with both teams also being top-half in points allowed.
The Pick: Under 41.5 (-110)
Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 14.
Dolphins at Chargers. The game flexed into Sunday Night Football. And for good reason (both on the field and in the uniform matchup). Sure, we all wanted to see the Dolphins break out the white throwbacks. But this is still the clear selection for best of the week. The Chargers powder-over-gold ensemble is the best in the league. And the icy white Dolphins are a perfect complement.
All eyes will be on Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert in this one. The 2020 quarterback class is the best in recent memory, and the Tua versus Herbert debate has consumed social media this season. Personally, I'm a big fan of both players. But I give Herbert the edge currently.* Imagine this Dolphins offense with Herbert at the helm. But enough of my pontificating. Let's see what these guys can do head-to-head on the field. And for our purposes, let's hope for success all around. It's all about the points in this one. And both teams are top-half scoring offenses.
*My current rankings of the 2020 quarterbacks:
Joe Burrow
Justin Herbert
Jalen Hurts
Tua Tagovailoa
The Pick: Over 53.5 (-110)
Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play
The Gridiron Uniform Database.
The uniform graphics you see here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. It is my favorite site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casual fans alike. This is especially the case during the season. I check the site multiple times a day to keep tabs on who’s wearing what.
Drop me a line.
You can always find me on Twitter at NFL Fashion Advice (@fashion_nfl) or via email at [email protected]. Come talk uniforms and all things football, and let me know what you think of the newsletter.
Coming Attractions.
We’ll be back in a few days for Week 15 with the Thursday Night Football Uniform Matchup and some Single Digit Revolution fantasy plays.
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