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- Bets Dressed - Week 13 - Uniform Matchups and Picks
Bets Dressed - Week 13 - Uniform Matchups and Picks
Week 13 is in the conversation for best uniform slate of the year. What's not up for debate is that this is the best combined slate of elite uniform matchups and elite football games we've seen this season. The uniform and football gods have gifted us with uniform and football nirvana. Just sit back, relax, and enjoy the show.
A quick note on methodology.
As always, I’m analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best. And just because a team’s wardrobe is ranked higher in the Power Rankings doesn’t mean that it will automatically win the uniform matchup. It’s what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.
I’ll also be crowning the best matchup of the week and shaming the worst matchup of the week. It’s the over for the sharpest matchup and the under for the dullest.
And don’t forget the Triple Mismatch Club. I’m making three units plays whenever the best dressed team in the matchup is a member of the Club (different colored helmet, jersey, and pants). And nine units plays if both members of the week’s best matchup are members.
Keep an eye out for a “NOTE” here and there where teams have not fully unveiled what they will be wearing before the writing of this issue. I’ll make my best guess as to their outfit, and it won’t affect my ability to pick a winner. I’ll also try to update after the fact if possible so each weekly issue can be a reference point for what a team wore on a given week.
Week 13 Uniform Matchups and Picks.
We're starting off this week with another Giants Legacy Game. As such, for the second time this season, we're treated to the fantastic "GIANTS" throwbacks. When they wore them against the Bears earlier this season, it was the best of the week. But the Commanders are the not the same class of uniform opponent. With that being said, this is as good of a uniform matchup as you'll find that features Washington. The colors complement each other well, and it feels like a must-watch NFC East event.
At this moment in time, New York, Washington, and the rest of the NFC East are in the playoffs. But the Giants and Commanders feel like teams moving in opposite directions. The Giants were the surprise darlings of the first half of the season, but they've come down to Earth in recent weeks while losing two in a row. Meanwhile, the Commanders were a bit of a mess with Carson Wentz at the helm, but Taylor Heinicke has steered them to 7-5 (5-1 as the starter so far). This is the type of divisional game that feels like home field advantage will play a big role. Add in the atmosphere of the Legacy Game and these throwback uniforms, and the Giants may have the edge they need to take care of business.
The Pick: Giants +2.5 (-110)
Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play
NOTE - The Commanders have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
Jets at Vikings. I've gotta hand it to the New York Jets. They just refuse to wear green below the helmet. Like a 1950s sitcom, black and white only. Can't stop; won't stop. I said it last week, and I'll say it again: they need to commit to the bit at this point.* Stick with this through Week 18. Go down in history. In the meantime, I'll likely keep picking the other team in the matchup (like the Vikings here).
Mike White, ladies and gentlemen. What a performance. Sure, it was against the extremely injured Bears. But White lit a spark in these Jets that Zach Wilson was keeping suppressed. I've refused to buy into the Jets hype all season long. Even I must admit that team will be hard to ignore if they keep playing like that. Justin Jefferson continues to do Justin Jefferson things for the Vikings.** And the Vikings continue to plug along contending for home field advantage in the underwhelming NFC. Minnesota takes it up a notch in their home stadium, so consider me content to be on their side in this one.
*If the Jets actually stick with it through the end, I'm making the Jets-Dolphins the best matchup of Week 18 as a sign of begrudging respect.
**Justin Jefferson-Sauce Gardner reps will be appointment television.
The Pick: Vikings -3 (-105)
NOTE - The Vikings have yet to unveil their choice of uniform.
Broncos-Ravens is a clash between two aesthetics born in the late 90s. While the Ravens look has stood the test of time, the Broncos are in need of a reboot. Baltimore continues to expertly pair purple with black. While Denver continues to perplex with an away look almost completely devoid of orange. Ravens in a no brainer decision.
When it comes to the 2022 Denver Broncos, there is no bottom. The 23-10 road loss to the Panthers was a new low point in the Hackett-Wilson era.* Speaking of low points, the Ravens blew another fourth quarter lead last week - this time against the Jaguars.** This should be an ideal get right spot for Baltimore, but perhaps Denver will show some offensive signs of life for the first time this season. I won't hold my breath.
*It sure seems like Nathaniel Hackett will be a one-and-done head coach. And Russell Wilson would likely join him if his contract wasn't virtually impossible to move on from. But it feels like GM George Paton is getting little to no heat in this situation, which makes no sense to me. The two biggest moves of his tenure have been abject failures. He interviewed and hired a coach that is completely out of his depth. And he sold the farm for a quarterback that has already lost the locker room and appears washed. But most egregiously: why did he pay Russell Wilson before seeing how the first season went? What an unconscionable, unforced error.
**Glass half full for the Ravens: if the Ravens took care of business in games where they led in the fourth quarter, they'd be 11-0.
The Pick: Ravens -9 (-110)
NOTE - The Broncos hit us with a uniform fake out last week, so take their current outfit with a grain of salt.
It always makes my day to see the Jaguars embrace the teal in their lives. The home and away Triple Mismatch Club outfits are the best in the Jaguars wardrobe. I'm disappointed that the Lions elected to follow up the gray bodysuit on Thanksgiving with the blue unitard here. Gray pants would've made for a sneaky good matchup, but the all-blue look landed this one on the worst of the week shortlist. Thanks to the Jaguars, this one avoided the bottom spot.
Both the Jaguars and Lions come into this game at 4-7, and it's hard to not feel optimistic about these big cats. Trevor Lawrence is that guy, and Jacksonville has a bright future building around him. And Dan Campbell's ethos has seeped into all facets of this Lions team. They will fight, scratch, claw, bite kneecaps, etc. And most importantly, they'll never give up. I'm expecting them to draft a quarterback* to build around this offseason. Armed with their own first and the Rams first, they (along with the Texans) are likely to be the power players of the first round. As for this game, it truly feels like a toss up. An evenly matched affair between competent offenses and incompetent defenses. I'll take what I can get the one point with the Jags.
*I would love to see Bryce Young leading this team next year.
The Pick: Jaguars +1 (-115)
Browns at Texans. The Texans wardrobe is as underwhelming as it gets. And this blue color rush look is the worst of them all. If I haven't already made it abundantly clear this season, I'm a fan of the icy white look. But the Browns iteration of it leaves a lot to be desired. I'd much rather see them wearing their fantastic orange or brown pants in this one. Cleveland is still the easy choice, but this is a pretty forgettable uniform matchup.
For all of the wrong reasons, this is not a forgettable football matchup. Deshaun Watson, the proverbial elephant in the room, is back following his 11-game suspension. And the timing couldn't be any weirder with Cleveland in Houston for this game against the Texans. The uniform gods have steered us toward the Browns, but I'd be lying if I said I wasn't rooting for the Texans to hand Watson and the Browns an L in his return to action.
The Pick: Browns -7 (-110)
Doesn't get much more classic than Packers at Bears. And doesn't get much harder than having to pick between them. The Packers and Bears are the No. 9 and No. 10 teams respectively in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings. But the Bears in home navy edge out the Packers in road white here.
There was a point in the Packers-Eagles game last week where it was looking like Green Bay had a puncher's chance at the upset, and I found myself looking at their upcoming schedule to see if there was a path to an unlikely playoff run. But the loss in Philadelphia felt like the nail in the coffin of a miserable 2022 campaign. Aaron Rodgers is the self-professed owner of the Chicago Bears. And Chicago's season feels even more over than Green Bay's. But the Bears get Justin Fields back this week. Since Week 6, Fields is averaging an absurd 107 rushing yards per game from the quarterback position. And it just so happens that the Packers are 7th worst in rushing yards per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Consider me content to be on the side of Justin Fields and the points.
The Pick: Bears +4 (-110)
In a Super Bowl XIX rematch, the Dolphins visit the 49ers for one the best games of the day. In an absolutely loaded week, this one didn't make the shortlist for best of the week, but it's an excellent uniform matchup nonetheless. The 49ers are the clear choice, but I'm excited to see this one on the screen.
Kyle Shanahan versus Mike McDaniel. Master versus apprentice. Let the chess match begin. Although the real coaching battle to keep an eye on is between McDaniel and 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans.* Tua has been one of the least sacked quarterbacks in the NFL this season, but Nick Bosa and the Niners pass rush are primed to put that reputation to the test. This season, Bosa is third with 11.5 sacks, second with 36 pressures, and first with 16 knockdowns. A big day from him will go a long way for San Francisco securing the win (and the cover).
*If I'm looking for a new coach this offseason, Ryans is my first phone call.
The Pick: 49ers -4 (-110)
Seahawks at Rams. On the shortlist for worst of the week. Before diving into the matchup, kudos to the Seahawks on their announcement of the spectacular silver and blue throwbacks returning next season. As exciting as that news is, I wish Seattle would scrap their current wardrobe and adopt a modernized version of the throwback full time. As for the Rams, I've said before that their look has grown on me. But I'll never get used to bone gray pants paired with the blue jersey. As for my decision, the blue and gold in the jersey and helmet (plus the helmet being one of the league's best) is enough to give the Rams the edge.
With Matthew Stafford landing on IR, it's a safe bet he's done for the season. And thus ends the worst Super Bowl title defense I can remember. The question now for the Rams is how high the draft pick gifted to the Lions will be. The Seahawks lost a barn burner against the Raiders in overtime last week, but they are still very much in the playoff hunt (both in the NFC West and wildcard races). John Wolford gets the start for Los Angeles, which will be the fourth of his career. Wolford has started against the Seahawks before - a 30-20 victory in the 2020 playoffs. Admittedly, Wolford only threw six passes in that game, and the Rams will need him to do much more with a much worse team here. But crazier things have happened, and - for our purposes - he has a good bit of points to work with.
The Pick: Rams +7 (-110)
It's always an aesthetic delight when the Chargers take on the Raiders. Pure uniform nirvana is Chargers in powder blue and Raiders with silver numbers, but this will do. My decision could go either way, but it takes a lot steer me away from the No. 1 team in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings. And the silver and black of the Raiders falls just short.
Justin Herbert and the Chargers are going for the season sweep against Derek Carr and the Raiders. But the Raiders have other ideas and have been especially hard to put away lately. Las Vegas is coming off back-to-back victories by way of walkoff overtime touchdowns. Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs are firing on all cylinders. And all of a sudden, the 4-7 Raiders have a very long shot to make some playoff noise. But all of that effectively ends with a loss to the Chargers. Los Angeles survived the lowly Cardinals last week with a game-winning two point conversion. Justin Herbert has really come on in the last two weeks with passer ratings of 113.2 and 109.7 respectively. And I think he keeps it going down the home stretch.
The Pick: Chargers +2.5 (-110)
NOTE - The Chargers have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
For my money, Chiefs-Bengals is the game of the day. But it is far from the best uniform matchup. In fact, it's much closer to worst of the week than the best. The Bengals should know that the Chiefs are kings of clash, but they still insisted on wearing their orange alternate against the red of the Chiefs. I get that Cincinnati wore this with success against Kansas City last year, but that doesn't save it from being an eyesore. Because I'm putting the blame on the Bengals for this situation, the Chiefs are the pick.
It doesn't get much better than Patrick Mahomes versus Joe Burrow. And you know the Chiefs have had this one circled on the calendar since blowing a 21-3 in the last year's AFC Championship Game. It looks like Joe Mixon will remain out for the Bengals, but Ja'Marr Chase will be back. Mahomes has been playing like the Blues Brothers this season: on a mission from God. Until he shows any signs of mortality, the Chiefs should be the favorite in every game from here on out. And I'll never complain being on the Kansas City side laying less than a field goal.
The Pick: Chiefs -2 (-115)
NOTE - The Chiefs have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
We're in for an absolutely glorious looking showdown between the Colts and Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. Admittedly, there were a number of better football games that could've been flexed into this spot. But not too many uniform matchups all season will look better than this one. In a very touch decision, I'm going with the Colts classic home outfit over that of the Cowboys.
I mentioned last week that the Steelers game would likely be an inflection point in the Jeff Saturday interim coach experiment and that seems to be true (with the on field results starting to match the extremely critical perception). While no one has the Colts circled as a possible upset candidate in Dallas, I don't think Indianapolis is ready to throw in the towel just yet. The Cowboys have emerged as a real Super Bowl contender, but this is an easy game to overlook (and a lot of points to cover).
The Pick: Colts +10.5 (-110)
In what is usually a solid uniform showdown, Saints at Buccaneers this week is tainted by the dreadful fleur-de-lis wrapping paper helmet of New Orleans. I still cannot believe the Saints decided to pair the black helmet with the excellent icy white throwbacks. This decision was made even more frustrating when the Saints rolled out the black throwbacks a few weeks ago. If New Orleans insists on the black helmet, stick it with the black throwbacks and avoid the eyesore of clashing golds. But I digress. Easy decision here: Bucs in a landslide.
Back in Week 2, the Bucs beat the Saints in the regular season for the first time in the Tom Brady era. Since then, Tampa Bay is 3-6 and New Orleans is 3-7. Both teams are experiencing a disappointing year, but both are very much in the playoff picture thanks to playing in the NFC South. A win for the Bucs all but slams the door on the Saints, but a Saints victory makes for an interesting home stretch in the worst division in football.
The Pick: Buccaneers -3.5 (-110)
Worst NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 13.
No clear choice for worst of the week. I'd be lying if I said this one really offends me, but it certainly isn't anything to write home about. It also happens to feature this week's two lowest combined members of the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings. The Titans white-on-white ensemble is the uglier of the two and retains elements of the dreadful Panelist Era. The Eagles green-over-white outfit is their best, but it's time for a change. Making the permanent switch to Kelly green is right there for the taking. Give the people what they want.
While this may be the worst uniform matchup of the week, it's on the shortlist for game of the day. The Eagles were nothing short of dominant on the ground against the Packers last week and continue to hold the top spot in the NFC. The Titans were uncharacteristically sloppy against the Bengals and dropped a very winnable game. They still have a healthy lead in the AFC South, but now is not the time to start losing multiple games in a row. Something tells me Mike Vrabel and the boys are going to give the Eagles their money's worth. Our eyes will be on the under, and both defenses are primed to deliver. Both the Titans and Eagles are in the top 10 for fewest points allowed per game (18.6 and 19.6 respectively).
The Pick: Under 44.5 (-110)
Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 13.
In a week with numerous bona fide contenders for best matchup of the week, Steelers at Falcons is the cream that rises to the top. What's not to like with this one? Two excellent outfits that complement each other perfectly (and a Triple Mismatch Club two-fer to boot).
Signs of life from the Steelers last week in Indianapolis. Missed opportunities from the Falcons in Washington. Both Pittsburgh and Atlanta are on the outside looking in on the playoff picture. The Steelers have an especially uphill climb, while the Falcons have the benefit of playing in the lowly NFC South. It's all about the points in best of the week land, and this one is more promising than most would realize. The Falcons are top 10 in points scored this season. And both the Falcons and Steelers are bottom 12 in points allowed. Keep an eye on the quarterbacks in this one. Kenny Pickett vs. Marcus Mariota doesn't exactly read as an exciting quarterback battle, but both Pittsburgh and Atlanta are bottom 10 in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. For our purposes, let's hope for some fireworks in Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
The Pick: Over 41 (-110)
Triple Mismatch Club (Table for Two) 9x Play
The Gridiron Uniform Database.
The uniform graphics you see here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. It is my favorite site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casual fans alike. This is especially the case during the season. I check the site multiple times a day to keep tabs on who’s wearing what.
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Coming Attractions.
We’ll be back in a few days for Week 14 with the Thursday Night Football Uniform Matchup and some Single Digit Revolution fantasy plays.
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