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- Bets Dressed - Week 12 - Uniform Matchups and Picks
Bets Dressed - Week 12 - Uniform Matchups and Picks
The Week 12 main slate is upon us. Kudos to the NFL for no byes this week. With three Thanksgiving games, we need every matchup we can get today. Speaking of Thanksgiving, woof. Nothing like starting in a three loss hole. At least there's no place to go but up.
The uniform slate is a bit underwhelming today, but we play with the cards the uniform gods deal us. Let's have some fun.
A quick note on methodology.
As always, I’m analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best. And just because a team’s wardrobe is ranked higher in the Power Rankings doesn’t mean that it will automatically win the uniform matchup. It’s what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.
I’ll also be crowning the best matchup of the week and shaming the worst matchup of the week. It’s the over for the sharpest matchup and the under for the dullest.
And don’t forget the Triple Mismatch Club. I’m making three units plays whenever the best dressed team in the matchup is a member of the Club (different colored helmet, jersey, and pants). And nine units plays if both members of the week’s best matchup are members.
Keep an eye out for a “NOTE” here and there where teams have not fully unveiled what they will be wearing before the writing of this issue. I’ll make my best guess as to their outfit, and it won’t affect my ability to pick a winner. I’ll also try to update after the fact if possible so each weekly issue can be a reference point for what a team wore on a given week.
Week 12 Uniform Matchups and Picks.
Ravens-Jaguars is one of those uniform matchups that will never compete for best of the week but has me sneaky intrigued. I would've loved to see the Jaguars go teal over white, but the interplay between the teal and the Ravens purple is undeniable. I'm curious to see if my optimism is rewarded when we see this one on the screen. Purple pants for the Ravens are always a delight, and Baltimore is the pick here.
There I go singing the Ravens praises last week, and they reward me with a totally flat performance against the lowly Panthers. They pulled out the win at least, and now they have the other 1995 expansion team on the docket: the formerly promising Jaguars. Jacksonville started out the year as a surprise Cinderella but has since come crashing back to Earth. I'm most interested to see what answers the Jaguars defense has for Lamar Jackson. They're bottom 10 in rushing yards per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks, so my money is on a big day for Lamar and the Ravens.
The Pick: Ravens -3.5 (-110)
Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play
Bengals at Titans. Arguably the game of the day. And not a half bad uniform matchup. This Bengals ensemble is my submission for best icy white outfit in the league because of that burst of helmet orange. And while the Titans have a bottom five wardrobe, powder blue makes everything better. Cincinnati is the clear choice here, but high marks all around for giving the people the best possible uniform matchup between these two teams.
It's a shame that Joe Mixon is out and Ja'Marr Chase has to sit another week because I was looking forward to these teams squaring off at full strength. But Joe Burrow is still plenty dangerous with Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and three-touchdown-scoring Samaje Perine. Speaking of dangerous, all the Titans do is show up, hit the other team in the mouth, and win. Tennessee hasn't lost in regulation since Week 2, and Mike Vrabel has quietly put together a strong defense of his Coach of the Year crown. The Bengals have been just as potent since Week 2, winning six of their last eight. The Titans will have revenge on the mind after last year's divisional round letdown against the Bengals. But Cincinnati will have Joe Burrow, and I'll take that over revenge brain any day.
The Pick: Bengals -1 (-105)
It's Week 12, and the Jets still have yet to wear green beneath the helmet. It's genuinely impressive at this point. I hope they have the courage to see it all the way through to Week 18. If you're going to have bad uniforms, at least commit to hilarious bits. And it doesn't hurt that they make my picks easy each week. Bears in a landslide.
No Justin Fields in this one, which is a bummer for anyone that likes exciting football.* The Bears entire offensive identity has been built around Fields, so it's hard to imagine how this offense functions with Trevor Siemian at the helm. To make matters worse, Chicago must navigate life without Fields against the Jets defense, which is top five in pass yards allowed and top three in expected points. But the Jets will be navigating their own quarterback issues with Mike White set to make his first start this season. Consider me content with the points in this backup quarterback bowl.
*No Zach Wilson either, which is a bummer for anyone that likes bad football.
The Pick: Bears +7 (-110)
In fairness, Falcons-Commanders probably should be the worst matchup of the week. But Thanksgiving gray-gate in Detroit couldn't go unanswered. So here we are. The Commanders black bodysuit continues to be the worst uniform in the league, and the icy white Falcons are dragged down by all the gimmicky flaws that hold back their wardrobe as a whole. The Falcons are the pick, but it's nothing to write home about.
If you can ignore the ugly aesthetics, this should actually be a fun one. The run-heavy Falcons have been one of my guilty pleasure watches all season. And Taylor Heinicke is undeniably electric in command - see what I did there - of the Commanders.* Happy to have the points in what feels like an evenly matched showdown.
*This name continues to be the absolute worst.
The Pick: Falcons +4 (-110)
Texans at Dolphins features two bottom 10 wardrobe teams. So there's no need to waste words on this one. The Texans continue to underwhelm and are in need of a redesign.* The Dolphins are in the Wasted Talent tier for a reason. But glass half full: the icy white look is their best non-throwback outfit. Miami gets the nod here.
The Dolphins have been an electric factory this season. First-year head coach Mike McDaniel, NFL passer rating leader Tua Tagovailoa, and otherworldly talents Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are all to thank for an incredible start to the year. The Dolphins have yet to lose a game where Tua starts and finishes. So it's no surprise they're two touchdown favorites against the Texans - the team with the inside track to the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. But Miami better be sure to take care of business against Houston because a brutal three-game road trip to San Francisco, Los Angeles (Chargers), and Buffalo awaits.
*How much better would this matchup be with Houston in a red helmet?
The Pick: Dolphins -14 (-110)
Looking ahead to Week 12, I had Buccaneers-Browns penciled in as a strong contender for matchup of the week. But the Browns had other ideas when they decided to break out the color rush unitard. This soulless outfit is bad enough on its own. And to make matters worse, they're wearing it against the Bucs in white over pewter. The pewter and brown clash is hard to ignore. As a result, this one is on the worst of the week shortlist instead of the best of the week shortlist. Tampa Bay is the Will Hunting in this matchup: it's not their fault, and they get the nod.
The Bucs seem to have their acts together after a three game skid. Coming off the bye, they have a favorable schedule that starts here with a road trip to Cleveland. Tampa Bay's typically vaunted run defense has regressed a bit this season. But it's still a top half unit. And the Bucs will need all the help they can get against the Browns top 10 rushing attack and Nick Chubb (arguably the best pure runner in the NFL). At the end of the day, this is still a quarterback-drive league. One team has Tom Brady and the other has his former backup, Jacoby Brissett. I'll lay the points with Brady every time.
The Pick: Buccaneers -3 (-120)
The Broncos must be trolling us at this point with the mismatched stripe outfit. To call it an eyesore would be an understatement. I'm higher on the Panthers than most, and this decision is a no-brainer thanks to Denver.
It's hard to get excited for a matchup between the 3-7 Broncos and 3-8 Panthers. Yet here I am, genuinely intrigued by this Super Bowl 50 rematch featuring two young, ascendant defenses. I love a good defensive struggle, and this one feels poised to deliver. Sure, the offenses are complete disasters. But that just makes the defensive battle more intense. Where every point will be hard earned, I'm perfectly happy to be on the side getting some (or just one).
The Pick: Panthers +1 (-110)
Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play
NOTE - The Panthers have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
UPDATE - White pants for the Panthers
When the No. 1 uniform wardrobe team takes on the No. 31 uniform wardrobe team, it's not exactly a difficult decision. So it's no surprise that the Chargers run away with it over the Cardinals. It cannot be stressed enough how badly Arizona needs a uniform reset. And I'm fairly confident a Cardinals redesign reveal is coming this offseason.
The Chargers just had their hearts ripped out by the Chiefs, and the Cardinals just had their pants pulled down by the 49ers. So both teams are looking for a get-right game. Los Angeles feels like the better team on paper, but Arizona gets Kyler Murray back after a two-week absence. Murray and the Cardinals certainly have been dysfunctional this season, but his magician-like playmaking ability makes Arizona a threat to beat any team in the league on any given Sunday. The Chargers have their own magic man throwing the rock. And I like Justin Herbert to have a monster game against the Cardinals and their bottom five pass defense.
The Pick: Chargers -2.5 (-115)
NOTE - Both teams have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
Raiders at Seahawks is a perfectly acceptable uniform matchup - all things considered. Seattle and their wardrobe will never do it for me,* but the navy ensemble pairs well with the silver and white of the Raiders (with the Raiders being the no-brainer pick).
The Raiders and Seahawks are former AFC West rivals having completely different (and unexpected) seasons. Las Vegas expected to be in the playoff hunt but instead finds themselves in the hunt for a top five draft pick (that they must ship to Green Bay from the Davante Adams deal). Seattle expected to be picking high in the draft but finds themselves likely to make the playoffs and in contention for an NFC West crown. Football is a funny game. The Seahawks are coming off the bye after a hard fought loss against the Bucs in Germany. Geno Smith has been a revelation this season, and the young defense gets better each week. The Raiders are 1-7 in games against teams not named the Broncos. But six of those seven losses have been by seven points or less. I expect Las Vegas to keep it close, so no complaints with the uniform gods steering us toward the points.
*The Seahawks would instantly be the darlings of NFL Uniform Twitter if they brought back the royal blue jersey and silver helmet.
The Pick: Raiders +4 (-110)
I have to laugh. The Saints are finally giving us the gold pants, but it happens when they're against another team with gold pants. Add this to the evidence pile that teams (and by extension the league) do not think about the overall aesthetics of a matchup when choosing uniforms. Regardless, kudos to the Saints for wearing their best road outfit. And the 49ers are flawless as always. The Niners get the nod, and this one is solid overall (despite the gold-on-gold clash).
The 49ers have established themselves as a bona fide Super Bowl contender. As winners of three straight and five of their last seven, the Niners are the team to beat in the NFC West and may be the last team anyone wants to play in the postseason. Christian McCaffrey has added another weapon to Kyle Shanahan's arsenal, but Jimmy Garoppolo is the man of the hour in San Francisco. He may not be flashy, but Jimmy G has a 15-to-4 touchdown/interception ratio and a passer rating of 104.1 in the nine games he's played in this season. And most importantly, the Niners are 6-3 in those games. The Saints are clinging to wildcard contention, but this is clearly a tale of two teams with San Francisco as the heavy favorite. It's hard to see where the bottom half offense of the Saints will have success against the top five defense of the 49ers.
The Pick: 49ers -8.5 (-110)
When the Eagles unveiled the black helmets, there was some deserved eye rolling, but I actually welcomed the news at the end of the day. Like everyone else, I would've preferred a Kelly green announcement.* But the midnight green helmet paired with the black uniform has always driven me crazy. So kudos to the Eagles for remedying that green-on-black clash. With that being said, the Eagles blackout ensemble cannot hold a candle to the classic Packers road look. And Green Bay is the choice in this one.
The Packers season rebound came to a crashing halt against the Titans last week. Green Bay has now lost six of its last seven going back to the London game against the Giants. We learned this week that Aaron Rodgers suffered a broken thumb on his throwing hand in that Giants game, which offers some explanation to his struggles this season. But it's hard to see how the Packers get back in contention at this point. They're likely relegated to playing spoiler from here on out. And what better place to start than with the NFC-leading Eagles. Philadelphia has looked off the last two weeks with Jalen Hurts appearing to be mortal. With the way the Packers have played this season, this should be an ideal tune-up spot for the Birds. But it's still Aaron Rodgers, broken thumb or not. Like a wounded animal, he's still dangerous.
*Thankfully, Kelly greens are on the docket for next season. And I wouldn't be shocked to see an Eagles redesign in the near future.
The Pick: Packers +6.5 (-105)
Steelers at Colts rounds out the week on Monday Night Football. Had my eye on this one for best of the week. But then the Colts announced the return of their bizarre throwbacks. The placement of the horseshoe logos is jarring and reminds me of the Microsoft Windows screen snap feature. The entire uniform is a downgrade from their current, flawless look. Fortunately, the Steelers are here to save the day in their excellent road outfit. And another saving grace: the colors complement each other perfectly in this one.
Jim Irsay and the Colts got a lot of grief for the Jeff Saturday interim hire. But it's hard to look at the move as anything other than an early* success. Since his taking over as coach, the Colts beat the Raiders and took the Eagles to the buzzer in a one-point loss. The Steelers coming to town offers a possible inflection point in the Saturday tenure. A win and the early success vibes continue. A loss and the critics get to say "we told you so." This has been a season to forget for Pittsburgh, but Mike Tomlin will have his team ready to play on Monday Night Football. Kenny Pickett and Najee Harris showed some signs of life in a losing effort to the Bengals last week. I think they remind the world this week they were first round picks for a reason.
The Pick: Steelers +2.5 (-105)
Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play
Worst NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 12.
We already covered the worst of the week in the Thanksgiving Thursday issue. Check out the full breakdown here.
The Pick: Lions Team Total Under 21.5 (-105)
Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 12.
In a relatively down uniform week, Rams-Chiefs takes the top spot on the podium. And for good reason. This is an incredibly sharp matchup and as complementary as it gets. It was even featured as one of our Dream Super Bowl LVII Uniform Matchups in the preseason.* People have their issues with the Rams wardrobe, but the white "modern throwback" is legitimately among the better outfits in the league. And the classic Chiefs reds speak for themselves.
How many people had Rams starting quarterback Bryce Perkins on their 2022 NFL bingo card? To say this season has been a disaster for the Super Bowl LVI champions is an understatement. Meanwhile, the Chiefs continue to separate themselves in their own tier as the best team in the league. The latest heroics of Patrick Mahomes against the Chargers cemented his case for MVP, and - barring injury - it's hard to see anyone taking the award from him. It's all about the points for our purposes in this one, and the Chiefs are the highest per game scoring team in the NFL with an average of 30 points. The anemic Rams are bottom five in that category, with a measly 16.8 points per game. But if both teams can live up to their averages, we're sitting pretty.
*We should enjoy this one while we can because (thanks to the Rams) there is a zero percent chance this will be the Super Bowl uniform matchup this season.
The Pick: Over 41.5 (-110)
Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play
NOTE - The Chiefs have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
The Gridiron Uniform Database.
The uniform graphics you see here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. It is my favorite site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casual fans alike. This is especially the case during the season. I check the site multiple times a day to keep tabs on who’s wearing what.
Drop me a line.
You can always find me on Twitter at NFL Fashion Advice (@fashion_nfl) or via email at [email protected]. Come talk uniforms and all things football, and let me know what you think of the newsletter.
Coming Attractions.
We’ll be back in a few days for Week 13 with the Thursday Night Football Uniform Matchup and some Single Digit Revolution fantasy plays.
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