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- Bets Dressed - Week 12 - Thanksgiving Thursday Extravaganza
Bets Dressed - Week 12 - Thanksgiving Thursday Extravaganza
Happy Thanksgiving. And Happy Week 12. Hope you brought your aesthetic appetite because we've got a lot to cover in this special Thanksgiving Thursday edition of the Bets Dressed newsletter.
We've got not one, not two, but three excellent games on tap for - in my humble opinion - the best holiday of the year. Ladies and gentlemen, the Turkey Bowls!
A quick note on methodology.
As always, I’m analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best. And just because a team’s wardrobe is ranked higher in the Power Rankings doesn’t mean that it will automatically win the uniform matchup. It’s what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.
And don’t forget the Triple Mismatch Club wrinkle. I’m making three unit plays whenever the best dressed team in the matchup is a member of the Club (different colored helmet, jersey, and pants). And nine unit plays if both members of the week’s best matchup are members.
Week 11 Recap.
Before we dive into the Thanksgiving games and Week 12 Fantasy Plays, let’s revisit Week 11:
8-4-2. That's more like it. Nothing like a strong week to push us over the .500 threshold on the year. Now pull up a chair, grab some stuffing, and let's keep the magic going this week.
Thanksgiving Uniform Matchup No. 1 (and Worst NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 12).
Let's get right into it. Some people may be surprised to see Bills-Lions as the worst matchup of the week. But this is an integrity pick. A matter of principle. I cannot let the audacity of this one slide. Allow me to speak directly to the Detroit Lions: You're a proud, storied franchise. People forget that you won three NFL Championships in the 50s. It's Thanksgiving Day. You've hosted this game on this day since 1934. And this is what you're going to wear? A gray bodysuit?? Is it too much to ask for throwbacks on Thanksgiving? Call me Jacobim Mugatu because I feel like I'm taking crazy pills. While I'm disappointed in the Bills for also not wearing throwbacks, they're very much the Will Hunting in this worst of the week situation - it's not their fault (for the most part). The lion's* share of blame lies with Detroit. And for that reason, we're deviating a bit from the standard under for worst of the week. For the first time in Bets Dressed history, we're going with a team total under.
Last week, the Bills played in Detroit and the Lions played in New York. Go figure. In a game where Buffalo is the heavy favorite, we're focused primarily on the Detroit point total. The Lions are top 10 in points per game this season, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Since Week 5, the Lions are averaging a measly 7 points per game against defenses ranked in the top half of expected points: 0 points against the Patriots (1st in expected points); 6 points against the Cowboys (4th in expected points); and 15 points against the Packers (16th in expected points). And up next are the Bills (9th in expected points). When you add in the fact that only two teams have cleared the number against the Bills all season, we're sitting pretty with a front row seat to watch the uniform gods punish the Lions and their grays.
*Pun intended.
The Pick: Lions Team Total Under 21.5 (-105)
Thanksgiving Uniform Matchup No. 2.
Giants-Cowboys is the day's much needed uniform palette cleanser. The Giants always look sharp in their icy whites. But the Cowboys are the stars* of the Thanksgiving show (and perplexingly the only team to wear throwbacks**). Gray pants or throwback helmets for the Giants would've taken this one to the next level. But thanks to the Cowboys, this will do.
Not all 7-3 NFC East teams are created equal. The Giants have been one of the pleasant surprises of the season, but it sure feels like the clock is about to strike midnight on this Cinderella story. Meanwhile, the Cowboys seem to be hitting their stride as a bona fide Super Bowl contender. The Cowboys have the league's best pass defense based on yards allowed, and the Giants have the fourth worst passing offense by that same metric. So Saquon Barkley and the run game may be New York's only hope in this one (and he'll need a much better showing than last week's 22-yards-on-15-carries performance). But not even the Saquonaissance will be enough if the Dallas offense keeps firing on all cylinders and Micah Parsons and the boys keep having their way with the opposing offensive line.
*Another pun intended.
**I've said many times that the NFL needs a uniform scheduling czar. But it doesn't take a specialist to know that fans love throwbacks on Thanksgiving Day. This is a layup. Just give the people what they want. It doesn't have to be hard.
The Pick: Cowboys -9.5 (-115)
Thanksgiving Uniform Matchup No. 3.
Patriots at Vikings. A bit of an underwhelming uniform matchup to round out the Thanksgiving slate. I wish Minnesota had the decency to wear white at home to at least present New England the opportunity to wear the red throwbacks. But that's clearly asking too much. Instead, we're treated to a purple bodysuit. I'm higher on the Patriots look than most. I'm holding out hope for the silver pants to make an appearance, but I'm never one to complain about a sharp Triple Mismatch Club member. New England gets the nod here.
Last week, we posed the question of whether the Vikings were actually good. I wanted to give them the benefit of the doubt, but it's hard to ignore a 40-3 drubbing at home. And there's no rest for the weary with the Patriots coming to town. New England has won three in a row (and five of their last six). In the month of November, the Patriots have given up a total of 224 yards and 6 points. On the year, the Patriots are second in the NFL in sacks behind only the Cowboys (who got to Kirk Cousins seven times last week). If the Minnesota offensive line doesn't get its act together, the Patriots won't just cover, they'll take this one outright.
The Pick: Patriots +3 (-120)
Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play IF the Patriots wear navy pants
NOTE - The Patriots have yet to unveil their choice of pants. Most of the team's social media posts suggest we'll see navy pants.
Club SDR - Week 12 Fantasy Plays.
The Single Digit Revolution cannot be stopped when the Bengals break out the white tiger outfits. For the second time this season, the good uniform vibes out of Cincinnati ushered in a 3-0 week. Cheers to you Robert Woods, Kenny Pickett, and Joe Burrow. The uniform gods salute you.
Isaiah McKenzie - Anytime TD (+255)
DJ Chark - Anytime TD (+320)
Daniel Jones - Anytime TD (+245)
Dak Prescott - Anytime TD (+450)
DeVante Parker - Anytime TD (+390)
Dalvin Cook - Anytime TD (-115)
In honor of the Thanksgiving Extravaganza, we've got an Anytime TD bonanza on tap for Club SDR representatives from each team playing today.
The Gridiron Uniform Database.
The uniform graphics you see here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. It is my favorite site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casual fans alike.
Drop me a line.
You can always find me on Twitter at NFL Fashion Advice (@fashion_nfl) or via email at [email protected]. Come talk uniforms and all things football, and let me know what you think of the newsletter.
Coming Attractions.
Bets Dressed Week 12 coverage continues this Sunday with a breakdown of the full slate (plus Monday Night Football).
Look for the Sunday issue to hit your inbox prior to the early window kickoff. As I’ve noted previously, we live in a world without a uniform scheduling czar, so it’s sometimes a chore finding out a team’s wardrobe ahead of time. In instances where it’s not 100% clear, I’ll make a best guess and update the issue later.
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And always remember: Look Good. Feel Good. Pay Good.