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Bets Dressed - Week 10 - Uniform Matchups and Picks
Week 10 may leave a bit to be desired uniform matchup-wise. But there are a number of intriguing football games on the docket. Best of the week was particularly difficult with no slam dunk candidate, and my coin-flip decision is a touch controversial. But that’s enough preamble. Let’s roll.
A quick note on methodology.
As always, I’m analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best. And just because a team is ranked higher in the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings doesn’t mean it will automatically win the uniform matchup. It’s what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.
Week 10 Uniform Matchups and Picks.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Colts at Patriots is a sneaky great uniform matchup with silver pants for New England. But I won’t hold my breath. No matter how it shakes out, the Colts - with one of the most underappreciated looks in sports - are the easy call.
It’s sad to see how far the Colts-Patriots rivalry has fallen. Unfortunately for Germany, the days of Peyton Manning vs. Tom Brady are long behind us. And the days of Gardner Minshew vs. Mac Jones are upon us. To be fair, Minshew has his electric moments. But my trip down with the Mac Jones ship has me on the bottom of the Mariana Trench. I’d typically lean toward Belichick in a spot like this: overseas travel and a rookie coach on the opposite sideline. But it sure seems like New England has tuned out the Emperor. There are rarely Hollywood endings to football careers. And it’s shaping up to be no exception for the greatest coach in NFL history.
The Pick: Colts -1.5
NOTE - The Patriots have yet to reveal their choice of pants.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Cards on the table: Browns-Ravens is fully deserving of best of the week.* It’s always a delight to see orange pants from the Browns, and the Ravens have one of the best Triple Mismatch Club outfits in football. Maybe I’m holding a slight grudge that we didn’t see those orange pants against the Seahawks a few weeks ago. And I was pulling hard for black-black-purple from Baltimore. But all in all, this is a lovely Fall uniform matchup. I give the slightest of edges to the Ravens.
At the midway point, the Ravens may just be the best team in the NFL. They’re clicking on both sides of the ball and destroying good teams. The Browns are on their level defensively, but the Cleveland offense is another story. Deshaun Watson continues to be the worst signing in NFL history - for reasons on and off the field - and has shown no signs of improvement.** With the Ravens boasting the league’s best defense, I expect a similar result to the 28-3 drubbing in Week 4.
*No argument from me if this is your pick. But I can’t get enough of the color pallete combo from the choice below (flaws and all).
**Imagine where the Browns could be if they stuck with Jacoby Brissett. And here’s one better: if the Browns never offer Watson, they could’ve offered the same deal to Lamar Jackson this offseason when he was under the transition tag (or they could’ve just drafted him first overall in 2018).
The Pick: Ravens -6
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Texans at Bengals is an awfully one-sided uniform matchup. While the Texans are finally playing like a good football team, they have work to do in the wardrobe department.* Triple Mismatch Bengals are the no brainer choice.
Texans-Bengals wasn’t on many radars at the start of the season, but it sure is now. CJ Stroud is the real deal. And Joe Burrow is finally back to his MVP-caliber form. With Tee Higgins out and Ja’Marr Chase questionable, Cincinnati will have to find offensive support elsewhere. But Burrow has showed that he has no issue looking to others for help - hitting tight ends Irv Smith and Drew Sample in the endzone against the Bills last week. As fun as Stroud and the Young Texans have been, the Bengals are a different class of competition. I think Burrow feasts against a bottom-half Houston pass defense.
*I’m very bullish on the Houston redesign. They can take a page out of the Bengals playbook: (1) draft your franchise savior at quarterback, (2) upgrade to top tier uniforms, (3) profit.
The Pick: Bengals -6
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Packers-Steelers is a textbook example of two great individual uniforms that combine for a bad uniform matchup. The yellow pants clash is out of control. I advise everyone to keep your eyes upward toward the fantastic block numerals of the Steelers. It’s always a delight when Pittsburgh breaks out the old number font.* And they get the nod here.
Everyone had this Steelers team dead and buried a few weeks ago. But would you look at that. 5-3 with their next six games against the Packers, Browns, Bengals, Cardinals, Patriots, and Colts. Would be shocked if the Steelers have fewer than 8 total wins after this stretch. They have a clear path to an AFC wild card spot. The Packers have been one of the season’s big disappointments - 3-5 overall and losers of four of their last five. But the Mike Tomlin Era has been defined by finishes over .500 and playing to the level (good or bad) of their competition. I expect this one to be a defensive slog and close throughout (sweating the cover until the end).
*I’d love to see the Steelers go one step further with gray facemasks.
The Pick: Steelers -3
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Titans-Buccaneers is all wrong. This would have been an ideal spot for the Bucs to go with the red jersey. And the Titans could’ve answered with light blue pants.* Instead, this matchup finds itself on the worst of the week shortlist. The Bucs outfit is sharp on its own, so it’s the selection. But this is a disappointment overall.
The Bucs have lost four straight since the early bye and have come crashing down to Earth since starting 3-1. And last week’s heartbreaker against the CJ Stroud and the Texans may be the straw that broke the camel’s back. Will Levis has looked the part in his first two starts - officially being named the starter for the rest of the season by Mike Vrabel. But if this Tampa Bay defense has any pride, they’ll do everything in their power to stop a second rookie quarterback from embarrassing them on national television.
*We could’ve really gone crazy with a double Triple Mismatch Club showdown. Navy-White-Light Blue vs. Pewter-Red-White. As always, this doesn’t have to be hard.
The Pick: Buccaneers +1
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
The Saints avoidance of gold pants is comical at this point. It’s entering Most Hilarious Bit* territory. The Vikings uniform flaws continue to hold them back, but they the are pick by default.
All eyes will be on Josh Dobbs in this one. He’s been the feel-good story of the 2023 season. From third string on the Browns bench, to starter for the rebuilding Cardinals, to potential savior of the Vikings season. What a wild ride for the Passtronaut. After an up and down start to the season, the Saints are 5-4 and first place in the NFC South. While New Orleans may not strike fear into the hearts of NFC contenders, they’re seemingly the most competent team in a bumbling division. The Uniform Gods have us riding with Dobbs and the points at home. Let’s hope the magic hasn’t run out.
*Be sure to tune in for our annual uniform awards issue - The Unis - before the Super Bowl.
The Pick: Vikings +2.5
NOTE - The Vikings have yet to reveal their choice of uniform.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
It’s tough to fully judge Lions at Chargers without knowing what the Lions intend to do in the pants department. Silver is by far the best option; honolulu blue would cause light blue overload, and white would only be good for Dick’s Sporting Goods. While there is mystery surrounding what the uniform matchup will ultimately look like, there is no mystery about who will win the matchup. Chargers in a landslide.
While the Chargers are the clear choice in the uniform matchup, the football game feels like an ideal spot for the Lions coming off the bye. The Chargers season has largely followed a pattern: beat the bad teams and lose to the good ones. If that pattern holds, Los Angeles is in trouble. Detroit has been one of the best teams in the league on both sides of the ball. And with the way their fans have been traveling, it should feel like a home game. In the Uniform Gods we trust, but I have a bad feeling about this.
The Pick: Chargers +3
NOTE - Both teams have yet to reveal their choice of pants.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Giants-Cowboys always provides a classic NFC East uniform matchup. And this one is no exception - landing on the best of the week shortlist. While I have no major criticisms for either outfit, Dallas is a cut above. And they are the pick.
I really thought the Cowboys had the Eagles last week.* They were aggressive. Dak and CeeDee were balling. And the defense was as potent as ever. But Dallas can’t seem to get over the hump, and an NFC East title is now a very tall task. Fortunately for the Cowboys, there is no better get-right spot than home against Tommy DeVito** and the Giants. It’s a lot of points, but this feels like a Dallas-by-30 massacre.
*Their failure to cover kept us from heading into Sunday Night Football at 12-0.
**Does Tommy DeVito remind anyone else of Tony Delvecchio from Backyard Football?
The Pick: Cowboys -16.5
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Commanders at Seahawks was the runner-up for worst of the week. But I’m a sucker for those wolf gray pants, and they saved this one from the seat of shame. The Commanders continue to do no right, but the Seahawks will keep growing on me if they continue to avoid the navy bodysuit. Seattle all the way.
The Seahawks are the second NFC contender this season to have their (non-gray) pants pulled down by the Ravens. But no use dwelling on the past. Another DMV team is on tap with the Commanders coming to town. And it’s safe to say that Washington (29th in defensive expected points) is nothing like Baltimore (1st in defensive expected points). I like Geno and the boys to cruise at home.
The Pick: Seahawks -6
NOTE - The Commanders have yet to reveal their choice of pants.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Jets at Raiders is a middle of the road uniform matchup with some one-sided wasted potential. Green pants for New York would kick it up a notch - as would the excellent throwbacks.* Las Vegas is the pick regardless.
Now that the interim coach game shine has worn off the Raiders, it’s time to see what this team under Antonio Pierce is really made of. Robert Saleh has done an incredible job with the Jets post-Aaron Rodgers injury,** and his defense is one of the best units in football. But as good as the Jets defense is, they can be run on. And Josh Jacobs is rounding into 2022 form. If the Raiders are going to knock off the Jets as home , Jacobs will need to bell cow his way to his first 100-yard rushing performance of the season.
*I know the Jets can’t do anything about their uniforms at this point in time. But switching to white facemasks would be an acceptable half measure in the interim.
**The Rodgers Achilles tear continues to be the biggest bummer and what-if moment of the season. The Jets with Rodgers are bona fide Super Bowl contenders. Even with their offensive line woes, an elite quarterback lifts all boats (and gets the ball out fast).
The Pick: Raiders +1
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
Broncos at Bills. One team in need of a uniform reboot. And another team in need of better uniform decision making. While I’m tempted to go with the Broncos in protest of the blueberry Bills, I can’t quite bring myself to do it.* Buffalo it is - albeit begrudgingly.
Don’t look now, but the Broncos are on the edge of being a frisky AFC wild card contender. Unfortunately for them, the Bills are coming off a disappointing showing against the Bengals and will be looking to take it out on the closest NFL object. The Bills are 3-0 coming off a loss this season and should keep the streak alive at home on Monday Night Football.**
*In the words of Tommy Lewis and Harvey Updyke: there’s too much Bama Panelist Era hate in me.
**The Bills are second in expected points, and the Broncos are dead last in defensive expected points. You do the math.
The Pick: Bills -7.5
Worst NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 10.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
As difficult as it was to land on best of the week, worst of the week was a no brainer once the Seahawks announced gray pants. Falcons at Cardinals features a pair of uniforms that leave much to be desired. The Falcons are an all-around mess (ATL wordmark, number font, side panels, etc.). And the Cardinals would benefit greatly from mixing things up with white pants.
At least the Kyler Murray return will distract from the uniform matchup. While the Cardinals have outperformed their record all season long, quarterback play has fallen off a cliff in recent weeks. With Murray back, Arizona should have a puncher’s chance at going .500 in their remaining eight games. Speaking of .500, the Falcons have the look of a team destined for 8-9 or 9-8 unless the man formally known as Mustache Arthur can get his act together. As perplexing and disappointing as Atlanta’s offense has been this season, the defense has been a bright spot. The Falcons are 11th in defensive expected points and Top 5 in yards per play allowed. They should keep Kyler in check in his first game back. So if Atlanta’s offensive woes persist, the cover is in our future.
The Pick: Under 43.5
Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 10.
Uniform Graphics by The Gridiron Uniform Database
I agonized over best uniform matchup this week. It’s undoubtedly a down week overall. But looking ahead at Week 10, I circled both Browns-Ravens and Niners-Jags for the expected shortlist. And I told myself that so long as the Jaguars featured a teal* element, it would get the nod. If I were to rank every possible uniform matchup in the NFL, Browns-Ravens would likely be higher than Niners-Jags. But in this snapshot in time - Week 10 of the 2023 NFL season - I’m going with San Francisco at Jacksonville.** I’m no fan of the unitard look, but I was taken aback by how much I enjoyed the Jaguars tealout against the Chiefs earlier this year. The interplay of the Niners red and gold against the Jags black and teal (in an inter conference matchup we don’t see every year) is too much for me to pass up.
It’s always a bonus when the uniform matchup of the week happens to be the best football game of the week. And let there be no doubt: 49ers at Jaguars is the marquee matchup of Week 10.*** It’s a tale of two streaks. San Francisco, after starting 5-0, has dropped three straight. Jacksonville, after starting 1-2, has won five straight. Both teams are fresh coming off the bye, and a win will slingshot the victor into prime position for the playoff push. While defense has been the driving force for both teams to this point, these offenses are no strangers to points - combining for 51 per game. For our over purposes, let’s hope there’s more where that came from.
*For whatever it’s worth, I was rooting for the Jaguars to go black-black-teal.
**No argument from me if you rank Browns-Ravens, Giants-Cowboys, or Lions-Chargers higher. But I will never understand the calls for Packers-Steelers. As noted above, two great individual uniforms but yellow pants overload results in a bad uniform matchup.
***And a potential Super Bowl prequel.
The Pick: Over 44.5
The Gridiron Uniform Database.
The uniform graphics you see here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. Best site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casuals alike.
Coming Attractions.
Another uniform week in the books. You know the drill. Back for more on Thursday.
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