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Bets Dressed - Week 10 - Uniform Matchups and Picks
Guten tag, and welcome to the Week 10 main slate breakdown. And what a slate it is. This may be the best uniform week of the season - with multiple matchups achieving uniform nirvana.
We're up bright and early for the first regular season game played in Germany in NFL history. And if any Germans aren't NFL converts after Seahawks-Buccaneers, let's hope they stay tuned the rest of the day because these uniform games will push them over the edge. You know the drill. Let's have some fun.
A quick note on methodology.
As always, I’m analyzing every NFL uniform matchup and picking a winner against the spread based on who dresses best. And just because a team’s wardrobe is ranked higher in the Power Rankings doesn’t mean that it will automatically win the uniform matchup. It’s what you wear in the instant matchup that counts.
I’ll also be crowning the best matchup of the week and shaming the worst matchup of the week. It’s the over for the sharpest matchup and the under for the dullest.
And don’t forget the Triple Mismatch Club. I’m making three units plays whenever the best dressed team in the matchup is a member of the Club (different colored helmet, jersey, and pants). And nine units plays if both members of the week’s best matchup are members.
Keep an eye out for a “NOTE” here and there where teams have not fully unveiled what they will be wearing before the writing of this issue. I’ll make my best guess as to their outfit, and it won’t affect my ability to pick a winner. I’ll also try to update after the fact if possible so each weekly issue can be a reference point for what a team wore on a given week.
Week 10 Uniform Matchups and Picks.
While this isn't the finest uniform matchup to offer the football fans of Germany, it could be much worse. The Seahawks are towards the bottom of our Power Rankings, but the Bucs red-over-pewter look is always a delight. And they're the easy pick here.
The fans in Munich may be in for a one-sided uniform treat. But they're in for a two-sided football game treat. The Seahawks are Germany's most popular NFL team.* And the Buccaneers feature the biggest draw in the sport: the GOAT himself. No one needed a win more than the Bucs last week, and they got one in a revenge game against the Rams following another heroic comeback courtesy of Tom Terrific. But this year's Seahawks are not this year's Rams and are poised to offer a far greater challenge to Brady's Bucs. I'm going to be locked in on the Tampa Bay defense versus the Seattle offense. Both are top 6 units in their respective yards per play metrics. Winner of that battle should secure the win (and the cover).
*Something I learned this week. Would love to understand the origins there.
The Pick: Buccaneers -2.5 (-115)
Browns at Dolphins. This one had the potential to be the best of the week if the Dolphins broke out the throwbacks. But it's still a great uniform matchup. The orange-brown-white outfit is my favorite of the Browns. And the Dolphins icy white look sharply complements the Browns ensemble. The Browns are the pick here, but solid marks all around.
The Browns are coming off the bye and two weeks removed from their Halloween beatdown of the Bengals. Cleveland has been competitive all season,* even with a four-game losing streak on the resume. The Dolphins have been riding the Tua wave: 3 wins, 3 losses, 3 wins, and now we'll see what's next. Miami's defense has been the team's Achilles heel - bottom 10 in the league for yards per play allowed. The highly efficient Browns running game should have success in South Beach.
*Margins of defeat in the Browns five losses this season: 1, 3, 2, 23, and 3.
The Pick: Browns +3.5 (-110)
Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play
From a pure uniform perspective, last week's Jets loss may be the best thing to happen to the Bills all season. It seems that Buffalo has finally relented on the blue unitard and is returning to the best outfit in their wardrobe. I've touched on the Vikings flaws before, but this is a nice looking matchup. The Bills get the nod, and no complaints overall.
The Vikings-Bills heavyweight fight was thrown into flux with the possibility of Josh Allen missing time with an elbow injury. But have no fear because Allen is a go (to the relief of Bills fans and Bills bettors everywhere). The Vikings are 7-1, but I still have absolutely no feel as to whether they're a good team or not. What I do know is that they have all but locked up the NFC North. And this matchup against the Bills (with Josh Allen) is just the gauge we need to understand whether they're Super Bowl contenders or pretenders. Until they prove otherwise, my money is on pretenders.
The Pick: Bills -6.5 (-110)
NOTE - The Vikings have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
UPDATE - Purple pants confirmed for the Vikings.
Any other week, this Lions-Bears matchup would've been a strong contender for best of the week. But there's no shame in coming up short in a week with some truly elite competition. The Lions continue to make me think about raising them up the Power Rankings next year, and the Bears are as classic and sharp as it gets. Chicago is the choice here, but both sides are dressing their best.
The Lions finally got off the schneid last week - holding the Packers to no touchdowns and snapping their losing streak. The Bears dropped one in Miami, but everyone in Chicago seems to be riding high feeling like Justin Fields is the answer at quarterback (at least in the immediate future). The remainder of the season for both teams will be all about building a solid foundation for the future. The Lions are giving up the second most rushing yards per game and per attempt to opposing quarterbacks. Justin Fields is second among all quarterbacks with 602 rushing yards this year (behind only Lamar Jackson). Fields has never lost to the Lions in his career, and that streak should continue if he's allowed to run wild once more.
The Pick: Bears -3 (+105)
The Saints continue to refuse to wear gold pants. And it makes the decision here an easy one. The classic Steelers home outfit runs away with it.
I'll be looking to see if the Steelers can show signs of life coming off the bye. The calls for Pittsburgh to explore other quarterback options* in the 2023 draft are perplexing to me. Kenny Pickett certainly hasn't set the world on fire, but there have been flashes where he shows he belongs. With TJ Watt returning but Minkah Fitzpatrick now out, the Steelers injury luck appears to be jogging in place. The Saints aren't exactly world beaters, so if the Steelers are going to do something, now is the time.
*The Steelers would be much better served drafting a blue chip offensive lineman.
The Pick: Steelers +1 (-110)
In an otherwise strong uniform week, Texans-Giants fades into obscurity. The Giants have a sharp look, but the Texans are the definition of bland. However, the Texans should be commended for the red helmet. It was a nice change of pace; I just wish they would work it into some other ensembles. And I really wish they would explore a complete redesign in the near future. It's time.
The Giants are back from the bye and have a chance to improve to 7-2. The Texans are sitting at 1-6-1 and in pole position for the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. On paper, it seems clear which way this one will go. But the Texans showed some fight against the Eagles last week. And the Giants may be a bit of a paper tiger - propped up by world class coaching and the otherworldly greatness of Saquon Barkley. I think the Giants keep the party going this week, but a Texans victory would be far from a shocking outcome.
The Pick: Giants -4.5 (-110)
NOTE - The Texans have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
UPDATE - Blue pants confirmed for the Texans
Jaguars at Chiefs. This is as one-sided as it gets. The Chiefs in their classic reds. And the Jaguars in their teal-less white-over-black ensemble. Kansas City in a landslide.
Speaking of landslides, the Chiefs are the heavy favorites in this one (and for good reason). Kansas City is firing on all cylinders offensively. The Chiefs are third in yards per play and first in expected points. And the lion's share of credit lies with Patrick Mahomes.* The Jaguars cinderella start has largely evaporated into dust. But last week's comeback win over the Raiders reminded us of what Trevor Lawrence is capable of and why the Jaguars should remain optimistic going forward. But for the time being, I'm glad to be on the Mahomes side in this one.
*As far as I'm concerned, Mahomes is the clear MVP halfway through the season .
The Pick: Chiefs -8.5 (-110)
NOTE - The Chiefs have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
UPDATE - Red pants confirmed for the Chiefs.
Pull up a chair. Help yourself to a healthy serving of good, old-fashioned uniform nirvana. Colts-Raiders was on the shortlist for best of the week, and it's one of three matchups this week that achieves uniform nirvana. Like other great matchups on the Week 10 docket, it's tough to pick a winner. My guess is that most people would pick the Raiders. And you'll have no argument from me. But I'm always going to stick with my gut and call it like I see it. It's the Colts icy whites for me.
All eyes will be on the Indianapolis sideline and new head coach Jeff Saturday. This time last week, Jeff Saturday was an NFL analyst working for ESPN. Less than two weeks ago, in his capacity as an analyst, Saturday tweeted that the "Raiders look horrible". Talk about bulletin board material. There's no denying that this is a coaching decision out of left field, and Jim Irsay is far from the most conventional owner. A lot of people have bashed the move, and I fully understand the criticism. But I'm nothing if not intrigued. If Saturday and the boys can deliver the cover, I'm all in.
The Pick: Colts +4.5 (-110)
This one is a straight shot of nostalgia. And the second of this week's examples of uniform nirvana. Cowboys-Packers is as historic of a matchup as it gets. Every generation of football fans is transported back to a time in their NFL memories.* This was the runner-up to best of the week, and it took the Top 2 uniform wardrobes in the league to knock it off the pedestal. This may be the hardest choice of the season so far. There's not a false note between them. And I have it as a true tie. As such, I'm going to defer to the Power Rankings to break the tie, and the No. 9 Packers just squeak by the No. 11 Cowboys.
Things keep going from bad to worse for Green Bay. After failing to score a touchdown against the worst defense in football last week, we may have reached rock bottom. The Cowboys on the other hand are rolling. Fresh off the bye week, they are certainly the better team on paper here. I keep waiting for Aaron Rodgers to show signs of life amidst this losing streak. Perhaps that will never come and this is truly the end for one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. But I refuse to believe he has no fight left. And maybe the Packers will shock the world in this spot.
*For me, I'm instantly transported back to the 90s and those clashes between Aikman and Favre.
The Pick: Packers +4.5 (-110)
Cardinals at Rams. With the Rams running back the bone gray pants, this one was on the shortlist for worst of the week. The bone pants are such a perplexing move, especially with gold pants sitting right there in the wardrobe. Meanwhile, the Cardinals continue to remind us about the awfulness of the Panelist Era. Some teams just cannot get out of their own aesthetic way. The Rams are the begrudging choice here.
Looks like we very well may be without Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford in this one. So an already ugly uniform matchup may be an equally ugly football game. To be fair, even with Murray and Stafford this one was likely to be ugly. Both the Cardinals and Rams have been enormous disappointments this year (with the former coming off a playoff season and the latter serving as the defending Super Bowl champs). The winner of this one can keep the outside chance of a playoff berth alive. The loser is all but dead and buried. I think the defending champs are more likely to show signs of life and am content to be on their side in this one.
The Pick: Rams -2.5 (-110)
NOTE - The Cardinals have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
UPDATE - White pants confirmed for the Cardinals.
The Commanders-Eagles matchup leaves plenty to be desired. The Commanders have the worst wardrobe in the league, and the Eagles have everyone pining for a return to kelly green glory. At least the Eagles will be wearing their current best look, and they're the clear choice in this one.
The Eagles just keep winning. It didn't always look pretty against the Texans, but they got the job done. Now, coming off the mini-bye, they draw the least dangerous of their NFC East rivals. But no divisional rival is without its pitfalls, and Taylor Heinicke has the Commanders competitive in every game. History tells us that everyone loses eventually (outside of the '72 Dolphins). I think Philly keeps it going against Washington, but nothing would surprise me. And I'm a bit concerned about that double digit spread.
The Pick: Eagles -11 (-110)
NOTE - The Commanders have yet to unveil their choice of pants.
UPDATE - White pants for the Commanders.
Worst NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 10.
The Broncos have to be messing with us. For the second game in a row, they're breaking out the mismatched stripe ensemble. Not only does it look terrible, it reeks of laziness. If the team really wanted to pair navy pants with the white jersey, they should've developed a white jersey that featured orange stripes. Instead, Denver is forcing polar opposites together (and failing miserably). Add in the Titans, one of the worst dressed teams in the league, and the resulting navy overload is enough to make my eyes bleed.*
Let's take a moment and appreciate what Mike Vrabel is doing in Tennessee. Last year's Coach of the Year saw his roster take a step back this season, and they're still humming along (and current favorites to win the AFC South). The Titans almost upset the Chiefs as double-digit underdogs last week, and they draw the Broncos off their bye this week. For each of these teams, defense is the calling card. And neither has been prolific in the points scoring department with the Broncos scoring the second fewest and the Titans scoring the sixth fewest points in the league. Let's hope those trends continue.
*Just close your eyes and pretend the Broncos are wearing throwbacks and the Titans have morphed back into the Oilers.
The Pick: Under 39 (-110)
Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 10.
As if there was any other choice. Uniform nirvana doesn't even begin to describe the good fortune of having the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the Power Rankings squaring off. This is as good as it gets for Bets Dressed nation. Admittedly, this is a subjective exercise, and I have no argument with those that prefer Cowboys-Packers or Colts-Raiders. Whenever you have a trio of uniform nirvana matchups, just sit back and enjoy. And I'm most excited to enjoy this one on Sunday Night Football.
This was the Bets Dressed pick for Super Bowl LVII, and both teams are still very much alive for that showdown. With that being said, I'm feeling much more bullish about the 49ers than the Chargers. As expected, Christian McCaffrey has added another element to this Niners offense.* The Chargers seem to have a defense problem (and by extension a Brandon Staley problem). But Justin Herbert is the great equalizer, and each week his rib injury improves. It's all about the points in this one. 45 is a tall order in a season where points are hard to come by and unders are cleaning up left and right. But in the uniform gods we trust.
*This may be the best pairing of a running back and a Shanahan head coach since Terrell Davis ran for Mike in the 90s.
The Pick: Over 45 (-110)
NOTE - the Chargers have yet to unveil their choice of pants. White pants will land this one as a contender for best uniform matchup of the year. Yellow pants would present at touch of clash with the champagne gold of the Niners (but not enough to remove best of the week status).
UPDATE - White pants confirmed for the Chargers.
The Gridiron Uniform Database.
The uniform graphics you see here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. It is my favorite site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casual fans alike. This is especially the case during the season. I check the site multiple times a day to keep tabs on who’s wearing what.
Drop me a line.
You can always find me on Twitter at NFL Fashion Advice (@fashion_nfl) or via email at [email protected]. Come talk uniforms and all things football, and let me know what you think of the newsletter.
Coming Attractions.
We’ll be back in a few days for Week 11 with the Thursday Night Football Uniform Matchup and some Single Digit Revolution fantasy plays.
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