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Bets Dressed - Week 1 - Uniform Matchups and Picks

Welcome to the first NFL Sunday issue of the Bets Dressed newsletter. I'm still thinking about that Josh Allen stiff arm and the Bills beatdown of the defending champs on Thursday Night.

Like every other Sunday this season, we're going to go through every matchup on today's slate (plus Monday Night Football). And at the end, I'll be shaming the worst matchup of the week and crowning the best matchup of the week.

We're in for a treat this week. The slate looks sharp. There are some bona fide contenders for best matchup of the week. And not too many train wrecks. Come along, folks. This is where the fun begins.

A quick note on methodology.

As I said on Thursday, I’ll be offering insight and analysis on every single NFL uniform matchup this season. And I’ll be making a pick against the spread for the team that dresses best in each matchup. And just because a team's wardrobe is ranked higher in the Power Rankings doesn't mean that it will automatically win the uniform matchup.

In addition, I’ll be crowning the best matchup of the week and shaming the worst matchup of the week. We'll treat the picks for those games a bit differently. I'll be betting the over for the most aesthetically pleasing showdown and the under for the game that makes my eyes bleed.

Keep an eye out for a "NOTE" here and there where teams have not fully unveiled what they will be wearing before the writing of this issue. I'll make my best guess as to their outfit, and it won't affect my ability to pick a winner. I'll also try to update after the fact if possible so each weekly issue can be a reference point for what a team wore on a given week.

Triple Mismatch Club.

In case you missed Thursday's issue, here's one last methodology point and one of my favorite wrinkles to this thought experiment. If you’ve been following me for a while, you’ve heard me mention the Triple Mismatch Club. I coined this phrase to describe a situation where a team’s uniform features three different colored elements. In other words, when your helmet, jersey, and pants are different colors, you’ve entered the Triple Mismatch Club.

To up the stakes and highlight one of the better quirks in athletic aesthetics, I’ll be making three unit plays whenever the best dressed team in the matchup is a member of the Triple Mismatch Club. This applies to the best matchup of the week as well. And the piece de resistance: if the week’s best matchup features TWO Triple Mismatch Club members, we’re going three squared and making a nine unit play.

That's enough preamble. Let's get into the matchups.

Week 1 Uniform Matchups and Picks.

We're starting with a well dressed divisional battle between the Steelers and the Bengals. This is one of many strong contenders for best matchup of the week. But since you're seeing it here, you know it doesn't take the top spot for Week 1. There are no real negatives here. But there's something about the interplay of the orange and yellow that misses the complementary mark I focus so much on for best match up. At the end of the day, two separately great uniforms aren't always going to create the best overall matchup. As for the head to head clash, the Bengals are an easy choice here. They're wearing their Super Bowl LVI outfits, and they look better than ever. This is also the first of many Triple Mismatch Club plays this week.

For the game itself, I've been singing the praises of Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase all offseason. That isn't stopping now. The uniforms make the decisions for me around here, but I'm feeling good about the Bengals covering the number.

The Pick: Bengals -6.5 (-110)

Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play

Speaking of the Triple Mismatch Club, enter the black over purple over white of the Ravens. This is best outfit in their wardrobe and one of the more underrated looks in the league. Then you have the Jets. They must have heard I'm a sucker for the icy white look, but I still cannot get over the blandness of the helmet, bizarre striping, and "NEW YORK" plastered across their chests. Talk to me when the Jets remove black from their color palette and maybe then I'll reconsider.

Thanks to Zach Wilson's preseason open field moves, Joe Flacco gets the start in this one for the Jets. Flacco facing off against his old team is a fun wrinkle. But that's where the fun starts and ends for the Jets. Lamar Jackson has something to prove this season.

The Pick: Ravens -6.5 (-115)

Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play

My disdain for the Commanders uniforms is well documented at this point, so I will not beat a dead horse. The only thing that saved this matchup from worst of the week was the Jaguars wearing the best outfit in their wardrobe. The black-teal-white uniform is legitimately sharp, and evokes memories of the franchise's original look.

There's plenty of unknowns in this one. Can Doug Pederson put out the Urban Meyer dumpster fire? Can Carson Wentz change his ways and provide a net upgrade at quarterback? I'm happy the uniform gods have steered me toward the side getting points.

The Pick: Jaguars +3 (-110)

Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play

This 49ers and Bears tilt was another representative on the best matchup shortlist. In fact, if I could have a three-way tie for best matchup this week, this game would be one of the three. Classic designs, excellent color palettes, and iconic logos. What's not to like? But hard decisions come with the territory here, and I'm confident both of these teams will be part of a best matchup (or multiple) this season. As for the heads up battle, it's close. But I'm going with the 49ers. During the Power Rankings issue, I explained the slight ding I give teams where the primary home helmet and jersey are the same color. The Bears are one of those teams.

I'm excited to see the sophomore quarterbacks in this one: Trey Lance and Justin Fields. That's a lot of points to lay on the road, but I'm bullish on the 49ers this season. Hope they're ready to start strong.

The Pick: 49ers -6.5 (-115)

The matchup between the Saints and Falcons isn't the worst of the week, but that doesn't make it any less gross. The Falcons are a train wreck. Number font, "ATL", weird side stripe, etc. But we already knew they were terrible. What are the Saints doing here? The gold pants are hanging right there! Just put them on! I said it above: I'm a sucker for the icy white look . . . most of the time. But the Saints rendition just does not work. The lack of a pants stripe amplifies the unitard effect. I'm not mad; I'm just disappointed. With all of that said, the Saints still win this uniform matchup. There's a difference between bad and abysmal.

The Saints have been a popular "zag" pick in the NFC South. But this feels like a lot of points against a divisional rival on the road. Jameis Winston is volatile at best, but - then again - so is Marcus Mariota. Hold on tight.

The Pick: Saints -5.5 (-115)

This is quickly becoming the week of the not so great icy whites. The Texans underwhelm with their entire wardrobe, and this outfit is no different. The classic Colts blues are as good as its gets. This one is a no brainer.

While the uniform decision was a no brainer, I'm a little bit worried about laying seven on the road to a division rival. I think the Colts will roll to an AFC South title this season, but Week 1 always has a few surprising results.

The Pick: Colts -7 (-115)

Another one! While I don't dislike the Dolphins icy whites too much, my biggest gripe with the Dolphins is they fail to live up to their uniform potential. And this outfit is no different. The Patriots also have plenty of room for improvement and are wearing a unitard of their own. But the helmet and jersey are strong. While the Patriots are the higher ranked team in the Power Rankings, this is a tough one to pick. I give the slight edge to the Patriots, but I wouldn't fault anyone for preferring what the Dolphins are wearing.

As for the game, I couldn't be more excited for this one. McDaniel vs. Belichick. Chaotic Good vs. Lawful Evil. A battle of wits worthy of The Princess Bride. Is Mike the sort of man that would put the poison in his own goblet or his enemy's? We all know Bill is the sort of man to put the poison in both.

The Pick: Patriots +3.5 (-115)

If it was any other week, this matchup would be a sneaky contender for best uniform matchup. The Browns uniform is as good as it gets. Some people prefer the orange pants with this ensemble. But I think the white pants are every bit as good. And would you look at that? Another Triple Mismatch Club member. I'm higher on the Panthers than most, but they certainly aren't top tier. And those microscopic shoulder numbers will forever be an eye sore (for those that are able to see them).

The big story here is Baker's face off against the team that kicked him to the curb. I'd be lying if I said my heart wasn't with Baker and the Panthers in this one. But the Browns roster is loaded everywhere but quarterback. Expect a lot of Nick Chubb and an outright win for the Browns wouldn't shock me in the slightest.

The Pick: Browns +1 (-110)

Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play

NOTE - The Panthers haven't officially unveiled their pants yet, but I would be surprised if they were anything but white. They haven't worn silver pants with white since 1998. The have worn black pants with white in recent years but not last year.

When the Eagles announced their white over green uniform, I had to tip my cap. This is the same uniform matchup as last year where the Eagles came into Detroit and absolutely rolled on their way to a 44-6 smackdown victory. I respect the Eagles troll job keeping the same uniform matchup alive, but this Lions team has a different feel coming into the season. Dan Campbell and his Anti-Fragile, Grit mindset isn't in the losing 44 to 6 business. And the Lions have the edge in this uniform matchup.

It seems like everyone is on the Eagles lately. And I feel like I'm missing something. Five points at home for the leg biting, Metallica listening Lions? Sign me up.

The Pick: Lions +5 (-105)

Packers at Vikings is one of the six divisional clashes featured in Week 1. After the Power Rankings issue, it seems I may be lower on the Vikings than others, but I stand by my position. The Vikings were in the "Wasted Talent" tier for a reason and don't quite live up to their potential. The Packers wardrobe is clean and classic. I admittedly would rate the white road uniform well below the green home uniform. However, the Packers are the easy choice here.

The road to a possible Aaron Rodgers MVP three-peat starts in Minnesota. Rodgers and the Packers have had a stranglehold on the NFC North, winning 8 out of 11 division titles going back to 2011. While I'm bullish on Kevin O'Connell and what he can bring to the Vikings, I'll ride with Rodgers until proven otherwise.

The Pick: Packers -1 (-105)

Like the Patriots and Dolphins, here we have another clash of the unitards between the Giants and Titans. It's matchups like this that really make me miss the Giants gray pants. It offered just the right amount of contrast. But I digress. The Titans uniform wardrobe just doesn't do it for me. And the all-navy look is the worst outfit of the bunch. This is a poor matchup overall, but the Giants are the easy pick.

This may be the game I have the worst feel for on the slate. The Giants roster is still filled with poor performers from the prior regime as the Schoen-Daboll administration navigates a cap-strapped existence. And the Titans may be the least buzzy team of all time coming off a No. 1 seed the year prior. I'll gladly take the points.

The Pick: Giants +5.5 (-110)

While the Chiefs are always sharply dressed, this one was legitimately in the conversation for worst matchup of the week. This game is going to put the red in Red Sea. The Cardinals need a redesign more than anyone else in football (you'll be hearing my bang that drum all season). And this matchup is further proof why the Chiefs are the Kings of Clash. But the Chiefs are easily the choice here.

The Chiefs are laying a lot of points on the road, but it isn't surprising given how injury-riddled the Cardinals roster already is. Not to mention the growing uncertainty around Arizona with the never ending storylines about Kyler Murray and his rumored lack of interest doing his homework. The Chiefs are going through some turnover, but they've earned the benefit of the doubt. The Cardinals . . . not so much.

The Pick: Chiefs -6.5 (-110)

NOTE - We don't have confirmation on the pants for either team in this one. But I'm making my best guess that they will wear what they wore the last time they met, which was in the preseason last year. There is no uniform combination where I wouldn't pick the Chiefs as the best dressed team.

UPDATE - The graphic has been updated to show the Cardinals in red pants.

This is one of the most anticipated matchups of the week - both for the play on the field and for the uniforms. Along with 49ers-Bears and the eventual winner below, this would be my third choice in a hypothetical three-way tie for top matchup this week. But hard choices were made. And it's sometimes hard to make these choices when an element of a team's uniform has yet to be revealed. However, whether the Chargers wear white or yellow pants with their league-best powder blues, my decision would be the same. For the purposes of this issue, my guess is white pants (will update if possible once we have confirmation). The thing that takes this matchup from best of the season to just missing best of the week is no silver numbers from the Raiders. Their primary road whites are a bit underwhelming, but the silver numbers take them to a whole new level. Now that the Raiders are playing in the Silver State, I'd love to see them use the silver number uniforms as the primary white outfit.

The last time we saw these teams meet on a football field it was in Las Vegas, and it ended in a tie sending the Pittsburgh Steelers to the playoffs over the Chargers. That one certainly left a bad taste in mouths of the Chargers, and I expect our Super Bowl LVII champion pick to come out guns blazing.

The Pick: Chargers -3.5 (-110)

Triple Mismatch Club 3x Play IF the Chargers go with gold pants

NOTE - The Chargers have yet to unveil whether they're going with white or gold pants.

UPDATE - The graphic has been updated to show the Chargers in gold pants.

Worst NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 1.

We believe in "best for last" here at the Bets Dressed newsletter, so we're starting with the worst matchup of the week. The theme of this week has been underwhelming icy whites, and Broncos fit right into that theme. Looking at this uniform you'd be hard pressed to know that orange is in the Broncos color palette. The Broncos are due for a redesign, and the road whites may be the element most in need of a change. But the Broncos are not the primary reason for this matchup bearing the shame of worst of the week. That responsibility falls squarely on the shoulders of the Seahawks and their Action Green eyesores. I've been wrestling with what symbols to use to indicate best and worst matchups on a weekly picks graphic. After starting at Seattle's glowing green monstrosities, I decided that the radioactive symbol is most appropriate. Avert your eyes from this one. Or at least invest in some protective eyewear.

The Pick: Under 44 (-110)

Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 1.

I agonized over this week's best matchup. I've mentioned before that this is a subjective endeavor. To that end, when it comes to picking the best matchup of the week, it's a gut feeling thing. Going with 49ers-Bears or Raiders-Chargers may be safer, more conservative choices and less likely to ruffle feathers. But I've never based my uniform opinions on what others may think. I just trust my gut.

With that said, we've arrived at the Best NFL Uniform Matchup of Week 1 between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Dallas Cowboys. I can't take my eyes off this one. Each individual look is fantastic, but where this one shines above the others is how perfectly complementary the uniforms are. The colors really shine. It's especially noticeable when you take it element by element: helmet, jersey, and pants. Pewter playing off silver. Red playing off white. And white playing off that unique turquoise blue. It's really going to pop on the screen.

In a week filled with Triple Mismatch Club members, it's only fitting that the matchup of the week features two Triple Mismatch outfits. And you know what means: take that 3x play and square it. I'm hereby dubbing this a Triple Mismatch Club Table for Two.

The Pick: Over 50 (-110)

Triple Mismatch Club (Table for Two) 9x Play

The Gridiron Uniform Database.

The uniform graphics you see here are courtesy of The Gridiron Uniform Database. If you’ve never paid their site a visit, stop what you’re doing right now and check it out. It is my favorite site on the Internet and an invaluable resource to uniform nerds and casual fans alike. This is especially the case during the season. I check the site multiple times a day to keep tabs on who’s wearing what.

Drop me a line.

You can always find me on Twitter at NFL Fashion Advice (@fashion_nfl) or via email at [email protected]. Come talk uniforms and all things football, and let me know what you think of the newsletter.

Coming Attractions.

We'll be back on Thursday to kick off Week 2 with the Thursday Night Football Uniform Matchup plus some Single Digit Revolution fantasy plays. In the meantime, sit back, relax, and enjoy the most exhilarating and optimistic football day of the year.

Be sure to subscribe and share this newsletter far and wide.

And always remember: Look Good. Feel Good. Pay Good.