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- Bets Dressed - The Single Digit Revolution
Bets Dressed - The Single Digit Revolution
Alright, folks. I promised you Stat Props and Fantasy Rankings, and I'm here to deliver. I've been racking my brain about how to marry fantasy football with my analysis of athletic aesthetics. The Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings are here as a guide, but the last thing I want to do is tell people to only draft players from the top half of the Power Rankings.
Then it dawned on me. The perfect solution. The trend that's sweeping the NFL nation. All the cool players are doing it. Ladies and gentlemen, I am proud to present: The Single Digit Revolution.
So what I have for you is less about the rankings (which are in the eye of the beholder) and more about drafting strategy. If you're a fantasy football diehard like me, you've heard of and tried all the strategies: Zero RB, Three RB, RB-WR-WR-WR, QB Early, TE Early, etc. But it's time to change the game. There's a new strategy on the block.
The Single Digit Revolution.
When the NFL changed its uniform number rules in 2021, skill position players (including TEs) were permitted to wear numbers in the single digits. If you've followed me for any period of time, you know that I am a fan of this trend. More than anything, I believe that NFL players should be allowed to wear whatever number they want. If a QB wants to pull an Otto Graham and wear No. 60, be my guest.
So how could this possibly tie into fantasy football? If you're like me, you go into any snake draft or auction with players grouped into tiers. It's a helpful trick to keep track of positional scarcity and determine which player to take at a given moment. However, there is always a challenge when it's decision time and you have similarly ranked players in the same tier. So instead of grouping players into positional tiers, the Single Digit Revolution limits your choices to players wearing single digit jersey numbers. This streamlined approach will cut down on paralysis by analysis while still providing optimal options in each round (or auction dollar amount).
Cards on the table time: I fully acknowledge how ridiculous this sounds. And I recognize that cutting out a large swath of the eligible fish in the fantasy sea may not be the soundest practice. But I am nothing if not committed to the bit.
So come along with me on this fantasy choose-your-own-adventure. One single digit at a time.
Without further ado, I present the Single Digit Revolution Fantasy Top 50:
If you're going to implement the Single Digit Revolution ("SDR" for short), it should be noted that this strategy is best suited for auction drafts, where you have a chance to acquire every available player and can truly control your targets. However, the strategy can be deployed in snake drafts as well.
Rather than go through each ranked player, I'm going to present a simulated auction roster and offer some thoughts on each pick. And because this is the Bets Dressed newsletter, I'll include a corresponding stat prop (one unit per prop).
QUICK NOTE ON AUCTIONS - this is the best way to fantasy draft. If you've never tried an auction, talk to your league immediately and propose the idea. All the fantasy sites/apps make it easy to do these days, and it rewards knowledge and preparation. Plus it's fun. The most fun. But I digress.
For the auction picks here, we're operating on a $200 total budget with 15 player rosters. And we're off . . .
Auction Picks (with Bonus Stat Props).
The Pick: WR Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals ($50)
The Prop: Most Receiving Yards in NFL (+1000)
My love for Ja'Marr is already well known. In the Individual Futures issue, he was the Bets Dressed pick for Offensive Player of the Year. I said it there, and I'll say it here again: we're soon going to see a wide receiver eclipse 2,000 receiving yards in a season for the first time in NFL history. And I think Ja'Marr Chase is going to be that guy.* And with that, we're starting bold with a bet for him to lead the league in receiving yards.
*The WR1 debate all offseason has been between Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson, with Ja'Marr as the third wheel. While Kupp and Jefferson don't qualify for the SDR, Ja'Marr would be my WR1 choice regardless. I'm going to shout this from the mountain top: Ja'Marr Chase is going to be the best WR in football - fantasy or otherwise. Get in early. And draft accordingly.
The Pick: RB Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings ($50)
The Prop: Most Rushing Yards in NFL (+1000)
Rounding out the top two* of the SDR roster is Dalvin Cook. I'm especially bullish on Cook in Kevin O'Connell's scheme. O'Connell brings fresh blood and fresh ideas to Minnesota, and he's the latest Sean McVay disciple to earn a head coaching job. I expect O'Connell to be the tide that lifts all boats for the Vikings offense with Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Kirk Cousins all reaping the benefits. And the Vikings offensive line is filled with promising talents emerging at just the right time. I'm staying bold with the other cornerstone of this roster and betting that Cook will lead the NFL in rushing this year.
*If you're going to implement the SDR strategy, the key is landing Ja'Marr and Dalvin. Everything else flows from there. I'm bullish on both to lead their respective positions in yards, and they'll keep you in it each week.
The Pick: TE Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons ($30)
The Prop: Over 4.5 Receiving TDs (-115)
Tight end is a top heavy fantasy position, and I'm an advocate of paying top dollar for a top guy. That is especially the case here with limited single digit tight ends. Kyle Pitts exploded onto the scene last year becoming the second* tight end in league history to surpass 1,000 receiving yards in his rookie season. The only negative? The dude could not find the endzone. That all changes this year. Pitts is due for some serious positive touchdown regression. Last season, tight ends league-wide were hauling in a touchdown once every 13 receptions. Applying that rate to Pitts's 68 catches a year ago, and the law of averages tells you he should've pulled in 5+ touchdowns. Factor in an expected increase in grabs this year and that 4.5 prop number looks very doable.
*The first being Mike Ditka, holder of the rookie receiving record with 1,076 yards. In only 56 catches. For 12 touchdowns. In 1961.
The Pick: RB Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars ($22)
The Prop: Over 1,025.5 Scrimmage Yards (-130)
I know that James Robinson is slated to be back in Week 1, but I don't care. I'm buying as much Travis Etienne stock as I can get my hands on. The man is a prototypical duel threat running back. 5'10, 215, and 4.4 speed. Sign me up. This is essentially his rookie season* after a first year lost to injury. Even if he has to share some time with James Robinson in the ground game, Etienne has a bona fide chance to be Trevor Lawrence's favorite target in the passing game. The prop line essentially asks whether Etienne can clear 1,000+ scrimmage yards: I resoundingly say yes.
*I've often thought the NFL should explore adopting the NBA's approach to rookie of the year: a second year player is eligible for the award if they were unable to debut in their first season.
The Pick: WR Elijah Moore, New York Jets ($15)
The Prop: Over 64.5 Receptions (-115)
This is my favorite prop bet on the board. It feels too good to be true. In his rookie season, Elijah Moore played only eleven games, starting six of them. He caught 43 balls in that span. Now in his second season, Moore has entrenched himself as WR1 in Gotham City and is set to play an entire season as Zach Wilson's top target. All he needs to do is add 22 catches to his rookie season total playing in six more games (and presumably starting all of them barring injury). Something tells me the former Ole Miss* standout will clear the number easily and flirt with the 100-reception threshold as an NFL sophomore.
*In his final year at Ole Miss, Moore caught 86 passes in only eight games.
The Pick: QB Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers ($10)
The Prop: Over 3500.5 Passing Yards (+110)
I cannot wait to see Trey Lance unleashed in the Kyle Shanahan offense. This is hyperbolic, but I have the same preseason feeling about Lance that I had about Patrick Mahomes before his first-season-starting MVP breakout campaign. The justification for this prop is simple enough: 2021 Jimmy Garoppolo passed for 3,810 yards in only 15 games with an average depth of target (ADOT) of 7.5. 2021 Lance had an ADOT of 9.3, and I expect that number to climb in 2022. To put in plainly, Lance can sling it and we're going to see him air it out more than Jimmy G ever dared. Plus money on that passing yards number is too appealing to pass up.
The Pick: WR Rashod Bateman ($10)
The Prop: Over 5.5 Receiving TDs (-115)
Does Lamar Jackson finally have a true No. 1 WR in Rashod Bateman? We're about to find out. Bateman* has all of the physical tools you want in a premier wide receiver. And unlike his rookie season, he'll be going into this year ready to go for Week 1. Bateman is built to win downfield, and Lamar Jackson just needs to put the ball where Bateman can make a play on it. The Ravens as a team were tied for the 9th fewest receiving touchdowns in the NFL last year. Mark Andrews led all Ravens pass catchers last year with 9 touchdowns. Hollywood Brown, last year's team WR1, had 6 touchdown grabs of his own. With some team-wide positive touchdown regression and Bateman's new status as the team's top wide receiver, pulling down at least 6 touchdowns feels more floor than ceiling.
*I read recently that Bateman's nickname is Batman. This isn't that surprising. Drop the "e" from Bateman and you literally have Batman. But this works for me. The Ravens aesthetic gives off a Gotham City vibe, and I'm all for it.
The Pick: RB Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings ($3)
The Prop: Most Rushing Yards in NFL (+20000)
Alexander Mattison is a pure handcuff play. He's Dalvin Cook insurance. I'm not buying the preseason speculation that his role as the Vikings No. 2 running back is in jeopardy. In six career starts in relief of Dalvin Cook, Mattison has 693 scrimmage yards (115.5 per game) and 5 touchdowns. When his (single digit) number is called, Mattison can flat out play. Admittedly, stat props are hard to come by for backups. But you can find most rushing yards action. And +20000* for a guy that is no stranger to 100 yard performances? Don't mind if I do.
*These longshot stat props always remind me Kevin Malone from The Office: "If someone gives 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp** ever wins an Oscar, I'm going to be a very rich dude." +20000 isn't quite 10,000 to 1, but you get the idea.
**Can't decide if I want to call these longshots Malones or Mellencamps.
The Pick: WR DeVante Parker, New England Patriots ($2)
The Prop: Over 3.5 Receiving TDs (-115)
Everyone is shorting the Patriots offense this year. And I get it. The Patricia/Judge Non-Offensive Coordinator situation is bizarre to say the least. But there is only one coach that matters in New England, and that's Bill Belichick. I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt ten times out of ten. And what's with all the Mac Jones* skepticism? Continue to doubt Mac at your own peril. And that brings us to DeVante Parker. You heard it here first: Parker is going to be Mac's favorite target this season. Not only do I like Parker to easily clear the 3.5 touchdown prop threshold, I think you could double that number.
*He may not be flashy, but Mac Jones delivered last year. If Trevor Lawrence had a 3,801/22/13 rookie slash line and led his team to the playoffs, people would be having out of body experiences.
The Pick: RB Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders ($2)
The Prop: Most Rushing TDs in NFL (+8000)
The days of getting Brian Robinson for this cheap in auctions are numbered. By the time this issue posts, you may be having to fork over a bit more of your budget. Do it. He's worth it. Stat props for Brian Robinson are limited, and this is admittedly a Hail Mary longshot. But if nothing else, Robinson is going to be the proverbial hammer pounding the proverbial nail for this Commanders offense. As Antonio Gibson stock continues to crash, look for Robinson to be the go-to runner for the Commanders - especially in short yardage and redzone situations. Double digit touchdowns would not shock me, so never say never to Robinson leading the league in rushing touchdowns.
The Pick: WR Isaiah McKenzie, Buffalo Bills ($2)
The Prop: Most Receptions in NFL (+15000)
We're squarely in low dollar "take a flyer" world with these next few picks. The key here is rounding out your roster with cheap players that have tangible upside. Isaiah McKenzie (like the next pick on this list) is the perfect example of this. It looks like McKenzie is going to win the slot receiver job in Buffalo, and he's been receiving positive buzz all training camp. Stefon Diggs is the alpha dog in the Bills receiving corps, and Gabe Davis is the popular breakout candidate. But there's room on this pass happy offense for Isaiah McKenzie to get his as well. This is another Malone/Mellencamp prop for a player with few action options, but the Bills were Top 5 in team pass attempts last year. The target opportunities will be there. But some admittedly unexpected things will need to happen for McKenzie to lead the league in catches.
The Pick: WR Josh Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers ($1)
The Prop: Most Receiving Yards in NFL (+15000)
Speaking of Malone/Mellencamp territory, we're likely a year or two early with this prop, but Josh Palmer has serious breakout potential. And he has the goods to be a mainstay target for Justin Herbert and the Chargers offense for years to come. You never root for injuries in football, but you have to think of them when assessing a player's fantasy upside. If Keenan Allen or Mike Williams miss any time this season, Palmer will find himself as a top two receiving option on one of the premier passing offenses in the league. There are far worse ways to spend a buck or two in your auction draft.
The Pick: TE Gerald Everett, Los Angeles Chargers ($1)
The Prop: Gerald Everett and Donald Parham Over 749.5 Combined Receiving Yards (-110)
When it comes to the SDR strategy, tight end is where you find the slimmest pickings.* It's why Kyle Pitts is worth the big bucks up top, but we need some Pitts insurance. And that's where Gerald Everett comes in. Everett's appeal comes from playing with Justin Herbert and the emerging Chargers offense. Cheap/late round tight ends are little more than dart throws in fantasy football. And a top 10 finish at the position would be a resounding success. The prop lets us rely on both Everett and backup Donald Parham in the quest for 750 receiving yards. I'll take all the help we can get.
*Brevin Jordan and OJ Howard offer other dice rolls as single digit tight end options.
The Pick: DEF Denver Broncos ($1)
The Prop: Patrick Surtain II Over 3.5 Interceptions (-115)
When choosing fantasy defenses and kickers, I'm an advocate for streaming. Never spend more than a $1 on either position in an auction draft.* In relation to defense, target a team that has a favorable Week 1 matchup. And that brings us to the Denver Broncos. Week 1 against the Geno Smith-led Seattle Seahawks? Yes, please. Patrick Surtain II** is the prop bet representative for this Broncos defense. And for good reason. The dude looked like a seasoned pro in his rookie season. And I'm seizing the over on his interception total for the 2022 campaign.
*When it comes to snake drafts, I'm an advocate for not even drafting defenses or kickers. Draft skill players instead and drop/add right before the start of Week 1 to fill your defense and kicker slots.
**His father was one hell of a player. I always loved the Dolphins cornerback duo of Patrick Surtain and Sam Madison.
The Pick: K Evan McPherson, Cincinnati Bengals ($1)
The Prop: Any Player Longest FG Over 62.5 Yards (+110)
Shooooooter. I can't get enough of this guy. Ice in his veins. Whether he's knocking down playoff game winners or watching the Super Bowl halftime show, Evan McPherson is an electric factory. The Bengals have become the coolest team in the NFL. McPherson fits right in. I'll save my nitpicking thoughts about kicker scoring in my Pet Peeves below. As for the prop, this was the only kicking prop I could find. We'll be rooting for leg bombs all season. Life's too short to bet the (field goal distance) under.
The Squad:
Fantasy Pet Peeves.
While I have you, and assuming we're all in the trust tree here, I need to air some fantasy grievances. The big one: PPR. I'm sure this will ruffle some feathers, but I am out on PPR until someone can explain the following to me: how is it possible that a run for nine yards is worth fewer points than a catch for zero yards? Make it make sense.
The "compromise" of Half-PPR is even more infuriating. If you're going to do it, then do it. No half measures.
Minor ones: QB passing TDs should be worth six points. And all field goals should be three points regardless of distance.
If you disagree, come yell at me on Twitter.
Single Digit Revolution Prop of the Week.
The Bets Dressed thought experiment is already ridiculous and off the rails, so we're not stopping now. In addition to our weekly slate of uniform matchup picks, I'll toss out a stat prop for a card carrying SDR member. Stay tuned.
Drop me a line.
You can always find me on Twitter at NFL Fashion Advice (@fashion_nfl) or via email at [email protected]. Come talk uniforms and all things football (fantasy or otherwise) and let me know what you think of the newsletter.
Coming Attractions.
To everyone's delight, the season is almost upon us. Keep an eye out for one more offseason edition: Top 5 Super Bowl LVII Uniform Matchup Possibilities.
Once the season kicks off, I’m thinking the weekly picks issue will drop Thursday morning. That’s where you can find my breakdown of every uniform matchup for the week, including my best and worst matchups. And a recap issue will follow each Tuesday.
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And always remember: Look Good. Feel Good. Pay Good.