Welcome to the annual Individual Futures issue of the Bets Dressed newsletter. A tradition unlike any other. We’ll be making predictions for the major NFL season-long awards (and providing each awardee with a nickname): Most Valuable Player, Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year, Defensive Rookie of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, and Coach of the Year.

With each prospective awardee, you’ll find their future odds and a prop bet. There’s no perfect science to this (let alone any science to this). This is purely subjective with a slant towards fun and against chalk - unless I couldn’t resist.* That’s enough preamble. Let’s dive in.

*cough - Bijan - cough.

Most Valuable Player

Manning goes to Denver - Ring. Brady goes to Tampa - Ring. Stafford goes to Los Angeles - Ring. I’m sensing a theme here, folks.

I know. I know. I know. It’s not that simple. But neither is Aaron Rodgers. The man may be a polarizing figure,* but he’s undeniably on the shortlist for greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. The best pure thrower of the football I’ve ever seen and his four AP MVP awards are the second most all time behind only Peyton Manning. With a new cast of supporting characters like Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Dalvin Cook, Alijah Vera-Tucker, and one of the best defenses in football, the Super Bowl sky’s the limit for this Jets team.

“But NFL Fashion Advice, you always bash the Jets uniforms. How can Aaron Rodgers be your Bets Dressed prediction for MVP?” Excellent question. For starters, the Jets pleasantly surprised us all with the unveiling of the New York Sack Exchange icy white throwbacks. But it goes a step further. If you’ve followed me for any period of time, you know that I’m a player number extremist - a firm believer in letting NFL players wear whatever number they want. So naturally, I’m a big fan of players switching to single digits and have coined the phrase the Single Digit Revolution. I appointed Matt Ryan as the Club SDR elder statesman in an offseason issue last year.** And with Rodgers making the switch to his college No. 8, the Revolution has its new face.

*For whatever it’s worth, I’ve always found Rodgers to be an interesting, cerebral guy. A bit mercurial, but what’s wrong with that? He’s been a riot on Hard Knocks and is a natural media talent. Let’s enjoy him while we have him on the football field, and I’ll be sure to follow him in whatever he decides to do next.

**Admittedly, this was primarily to do an Austin Powers No. 2 bit.

The Future: MVP (+1600)

The Prop: Over 28.5 Passing TDs (-105)

Offensive Player of the Year

Full disclosure: Derrick Henry is safely in the Top 5 of my all-time favorite players of the 21st Century. An old school running back in a modern era. One of eight players in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards in a season and the only one to do it in the last 10 years. Henry is also one game away from sole possession of the NFL record for most games with 200+ rushing yards.*

The best running back of his era, Henry has eclipsed 1,500 rushing yards in three of the last four seasons (including a 1,991 yard pace in his eight-game, injury-shortened 2021). And while everyone wants to predict this is the year he finally falls off, what evidence do we have that suggests that’s going to happen? Henry is a strong candidate to lead the league in rushing, and if he makes it six years in a row with double-digit rushing touchdowns, Offensive Player of Year is very much in play.

From an aesthetic perspective, it doesn’t get much better than Derrick Henry. The dude is a literal Titan. No. 22 is a bona fide contender for the GOAT running back number. And while the Titans uniforms leave much to be desired, the glorious return of the Oilers throwbacks will have King Henry in full Oil Derrick glory.

*Might as well circle Week 15 against the Texans.

The Future: OPOY (+3000)

The Prop: Over 1,150.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Defensive Player of the Year

No one looked cooler this offseason than Brian Burns* rocking the black helmet with the blue jersey during Panthers media day. And while I’m aware he prefers to go by Spiderman, the aesthetic comp to Mortal Kombat legend Subzero cannot be denied - especially now that he’s rocking No. 0.

If Burns is not on your best defensive player radar, he’s going to be this season. The edge rusher has steadily improved each year with sack seasons of 7.5, 9, 9, and 12.5 in his first four years. And he’s poised for Defensive Player of the Year contention in Year 5.

The Panthers were a top-half defense in expected points in 2022, and their arrow is pointing up with the additions of Ejiro Evero, Vonn Bell, and Justin Houston and the continued ascension of Jaycee Horn, Derrick Brown, Jeremy Chinn, and Frankie Luvu. Burns stands to benefit from this all and can focus on chasing the 2023 sack crown (with the occasional drop back in coverage**).

*An especially impressive feat during the Summer of Throwbacks.

**Burns is sneaky competent in coverage. When targeted in coverage 12 times last season, he allowed an opposing QB rating of 59.7. Not too shabby.

The Future: DPOY (+3000)

The Prop: Over 10.75 Sacks (+130)

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Bijan* Robinson. The RB prince that was promised. Bijan reminds me so much of Edgerrin James - more specifically, pre-injury Edgerrin James.** And if he’s just 75% of what Edge was as a rookie, he should cruise to Offensive Rookie of the Year. The wunderkind from Texas is poised to do it all in Arthur Smith’s Falcons offense - running, catching, and wildcat quarterbacking.

The Falcons uniform wardrobe may be a basement dweller, but the elite red-helmet throwbacks will remind us three times this year of Atlanta’s aesthetic potential. Plus it takes serious swag to make a bad uniform look (somewhat) good. And Bijan is that dude. Sporting No. 7, he’ll make his case as the prototypical Single Digit Revolutionary.

*Bijan is the latest addition to the First Name Club: athletes that can get away with being referred to solely by their first name.

**Hard to start your career better than Edge: 2,139 scrimmage yards and 17 touchdowns in Year 1; 2,303 scrimmage yards and 18 touchdowns in Year 2; and a 2,280 scrimmage yard pace cut short by a torn ACL in Week 6 of Year 3. If you’re the best player on the field while sharing a backfield with Peyton Manning, you’re doing something right.

The Future: OROY (+275)

The Prop: Over 1,100.5 Rushing Yards (+100)

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Avert your eyes number rule purists, there’s a 6’6, 275 pound defensive end wearing No. 9 on the horizon. No player lives up to the nickname I’ve bestowed upon them more than Tyree Wilson.* And if Tyree Wilson is anything like his Resident Evil namesake, he’ll be the stuff of NFL quarterback nightmares.

Wilson was one of my favorite prospects coming out of the draft. He’s got an NFL-ready frame paired with documented production - averaging 14 tackles for loss and 7 sacks his last two seasons at Texas Tech.* And if you want to compete in the AFC West, you need a guy that can rush the passer. With Maxx Crosby on one side and Tyree Wilson on the other, the Raiders are primed with a pair of bookends. Crosby should be the focus of every offensive gameplan Las Vegas faces this season, so Wilson stands to benefit.

*Red Raiders and Silver & Black Raiders. Sneaky great start to the uniform career.

The Future: DROY (+1000)

The Prop: Lead the NFL in Sacks (+10000)*

*No individual sack lines were available for Wilson, so throwing up a Hail Mary for him to lead the league. Crazier things have happened.

Comeback Player of the Year

Big DISCLAIMER at the beginning: this award should and will go to Damar Hamlin. It blows my mind that Hamlin’s current odds are only -285. He doesn’t even need to play a regular season snap. But I decided to go a different direction with my pick because (a) negative odds don’t make for a fun future bet and (b) I wanted an excuse to make an image of Tua Tagovailoa as Two-Face.*

Speaking of Tua, he dealt with his own offseason speculation regarding the future of his football-playing career. After a series of concussions last year, there were questions aplenty about whether he would return for Year 4. But Tua put those questions to bed - back to lead the Dolphins, bulked up, and outfitted with the VICIS Zero2 Matrix helmet.**

In the first eight games Tua started and finished last season, the Dolphins went 8-0, and Tua amassed an impressive 19/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. But the wheels fell off from the 49ers game on with Tua losing his last four starts of the season. We’ve seen what this offense - and Tua - can do when he’s adequately protected. With Mike McDaniel calling the shots and supersonic missiles like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle running the routes, all Tua needs to do is stay healthy, point, and shoot.

*Tu Face, Cheetah, and Penguin. The Dolphins offense is the NFL’s Rogues’ Gallery.

**Designed specifically for quarterbacks to reduce concussions.

The Future: CPOY (+2000)

The Prop: Over 3,850.5 Passing Yards (+100)

Coach of the Year

This is an easy one. In an interview on the Green Light Podcast with Chris Long this offseason, Arthur Smith ended our long national nightmare by announcing that the Falcons would no longer wear their gradient uniforms - paving the way for three red-helmet throwback games. Long live, Mustache Arthur. We are forever indebted to your good uniform taste.

Smith was an assistant coach on the Titans when they first rolled out the “exotic smashmouth” offense in 2016. And now he has the tools in his toolkit to turn that approach up to 11. Words cannot express how excited I am to watch this Atlanta offense in action. The Falcons boast the best running back room in football, a road grading offensive line, and a pair of towering pass catchers. Sure they have an unknown at quarterback, but Desmond Ridder’s best friends will be the three-headed-monster running game of Bijan Robinson, Tyler Allgeier, and Cordarrelle Patterson and safety blanket pass catchers in Drake London and Kyle Pitts.

The NFC South is there for the taking. And in a wide open NFC playoffs, the Falcons have as good of a puncher’s chance as anyone.

The Future: COY (+1400)

The Prop: Falcons Win Super Bowl (+6000)*

*I’m still feeling great about my Falcons-Jaguars contrarian Super Bowl prediction.

Class Picture.

Another year. Another Individual Futures Class enshrined forever in the books.

Coming Attractions.

I’ve decided to combine Team Futures and Dream Super Bowl Matchups into one issue this year. So keep an eye out for the next and last offseason issue: The Road to Las Vegas.

We’re only two weeks out from NFL Opening Night. Once the regular season arrives, we’ll be dropping two issues each week on Thursday and Sunday. Party’s almost here, folks.

Be sure to subscribe and share this newsletter far and wide. And always remember: Look Good. Feel Good. Pay Good.