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- Bets Dressed - 2022 NFL Team Futures
Bets Dressed - 2022 NFL Team Futures
Alright, folks. We have arrived at the Team Futures portion of this thought experiment. In this issue, we are going to cover the following Bets Dressed picks: season win totals, yes/no to make the playoffs, Division winners, Conference winners, and the Super Bowl champion.
A quick note on lines, odds, and units.
As we go through the picks, I'll be indicating the lines/odds where applicable. Unless otherwise indicated, each pick will be for one unit.
I'll keep a running tab of the action to track the thought experiment and explore whether it truly pays to dress your best.
And a quick note on methodology.
The Team Futures picks will rely entirely on the Uniform Wardrobe Power Rankings. Think of them as the Rosetta Stone in our search for the aesthetic edge. Check out the Power Rankings below, and be sure to read the complete breakdown here.
Part of the fun of this thought experiment will be how against the grain some picks are. I'm probably the only betting "analyst" outside of Chicago to have the Bears postseason bound, but such is life when making exclusively uniform-based selections.
Without further ado, let's kick it off with the fun stuff: Division Winners, Wildcards, and the Playoff Picture.
Division Winners, Wildcards, and the Champs.
We'll go cardinal direction by cardinal direction for the AFC and NFC Division Winners, which feature the highest ranked team in each division. Clockwise around the compass we'll go - starting in the North and ending in the West. Then we'll talk about the Wildcard picks in each Conference, which are comprised of the next three highest ranked teams that are not atop a division. And we'll finish up with our picks for Conference Champs and the Super Bowl LVII winner.
AFC North - Cleveland Browns (+275)
The AFC North makes a strong case for best dressed division in the NFL. I currently have them second to only the AFC West (which gets a strong boost from the league-best Chargers). Coming in at No. 3 in the Power Rankings, the Browns are the highest ranked team in the division and the pick here to bring home the title.
This is the ultimate "stick with the board" pick, and I'm not going to deviate from the Power Rankings even though it defies common logic. Deshaun Watson is the elephant in the room here, and his likely - and very much deserved - lengthy suspension will present obvious challenges.* But this roster is loaded with an elite offensive line and running back room plus a defensive unit led by Defensive Player of the Year hopeful Myles Garrett. I'm grabbing the Browns at +275 here, but there will likely be movement once the details of Watson's suspension are announced. If you're looking to tail here, I'd sit tight and wait for more information.
*Feels like an obvious place to point out that the Browns have made this bed and now get to sleep in it.
NFC North - Green Bay Packers (-190)
It doesn't get more nostalgic than the NFC Norris Division also known the NFC North and formerly known as the NFC Central. The Packers, No. 9 in the Power Rankings, are the pick here. And this is the first (but not the last) example of the Power Rankings steering us toward the current betting favorite.
The Packers will go as far as Aaron Rodgers* takes them. While his pass catching supporting cast is depleted with the departure of Davante Adams, the Green Bay defense has a strong case for best unit in the league. And don't forget about the potent rushing combo of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.
*Don't look now, but Aaron Rodgers has a chance this year to be the first player since his old colleague Brett Favre to win three straight MVPs. He can also tie Peyton Manning for most MVPs all time (5).
AFC East - Buffalo Bills (-225)
It's hard to suffer a more brutal loss* than the Bills in last year's Divisional Round against the Chiefs. Of all the teams in football this season, no one screams "Super Bowl or Bust" more than the Bills. To no one's surprise, the Bills, No. 5 in the Power Rankings, are the betting favorite and our pick here.
This is first and foremost the Josh Allen show. How many QBs in NFL history have blended Angry Runs scepter-wielding ferocity with fully loaded Howitzer arm talent. Other than 2015 Cam Newton, no one else really comes to mind. The man had 763 rushing yards last season to go with almost 4,500 passing yards and 43 total touchdowns. If this level of play continues, expect the Bills to cruise in the AFC East this year and make their play for the Lombardi Trophy that has eluded this franchise for far too long.
*In no particular order, the most brutal losses** in NFL history: The Music City Miracle (Titans over Bills, 1999 Wild Card Game); Anderson Shanks It (Falcons over Vikings, 1998 NFC Championship); 28-3 (Patriots over Falcons, Super Bowl LI); 35-3 (Bills over Oilers, 1992 Wild Card Game); The Tuck Rule (Patriots over Raiders, 2001 Divisional Game); The Butler Interception (Patriots over Seahawks, Super Bowl XLIX); The Fumble (Broncos over Browns, 1987 AFC Championship); Phantom PI (Rams over Saints, 2018 NFC Championship); Rahim Moore Goes to Sleep (Ravens over Broncos, 2012 Divisional Game); and Wide Right (Giants over Bills, Super Bowl XXV).
**The most absurd loss I've ever seen was the River City Relay (Jaguars over Saints, 2003 Regular Season). It didn't have postseason stakes but watching John Carney miss the extra point after a 75-yard lateral play TD was the most shocking combination of things I've seen on a football field.
NFC East - Dallas Cowboys (+135)
You gotta love plus money for a division favorite. The Dallas Cowboys, coming in at No. 11 on the Power Rankings, are the lowest ranked of our division winner picks (and the only team falling outside of the Top 10).
We're approximately six months removed from the most bizarre QB draw in NFL history, which overshadowed a promising Cowboys season. Sure, Mike McCarthy leaves plenty to be desired. But Micah Parsons was a revelation in Dan Quinn's defense, Dak Prescott is another year removed from his gruesome ankle injury, and CeeDee Lamb is ready to emerge as the Cowboys number one receiver. If CeeDee delivers, Dak stays healthy, and this young defense continues to ascend, this may prove to be our surest thing on the board.
AFC South - Indianapolis Colts (-125)
The Colts are the lone bright spot in the worst dressed division in football. As the No. 4 team in the Power Rankings, they're the obvious pick from a uniform perspective.
Chris Ballard has been one of the league's better GMs and has amassed excellent talent throughout the roster. Jonathan Taylor, Quenton Nelson, Darius Leonard, and DeForest Buckner are elite at their respective positions. But the QB position has been in flux since the surprise retirement of Andrew Luck.* With the addition of Matt Ryan to this otherwise solid roster, the Colts find themselves as sneaky Super Bowl contenders.
*Luck's career will forever be remembered as one of the great NFL "what-ifs". He's only 32 - younger than Matthew Stafford, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, and Ryan Tannehill. Not For Long, indeed.
NFC South - Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-300)
To the surprise of no one, Tom Brady is back. The Bucs, No. 7 in the Power Rankings, are the heaviest favorites among our selections, and it's hard to foresee a situation - barring injury - where anyone else takes the NFC South crown.
Two years removed from hoisting the Lombardi Trophy and one year removed from nearly coming back from a 27-3 deficit against the eventual champion Rams, the Bucs are well-positioned to keep the magic going. Todd Bowles taking over from Bruce Arians may actually be an improvement (depending on whether you believe reports about the strained relationship between Brady and Arians). The sun rises and sets with Brady in Tampa, and this season will be no different. The GOAT will be 45* when the season starts, and this thing has to end eventually.** But nothing would surprise me at this point.
*13 years older than Andrew Luck!
**Right? It has to happen eventually. I'll never forget when it happened to Peyton Manning. Week 11 of the 2014 season against the Rams. There were some moments here and there, but he was never the same after that game. Like Henry Rowengartner in Rookie of the Year. One minute it was there and the next it was gone. If all else fails, float it.
AFC West - Los Angeles Chargers (+220)
The top dog in the Power Rankings is the pick for the AFC West crown. The best dressed team in the league fittingly is in the best dressed division* in football.
I'd be lying if I said I wasn't a little bit nervous about the Chargers. Everyone is in on the Chargers this year. In a thought experiment built around picking the best dressed teams to succeed, the Bets Dressed brand is firmly hitched to the Chargers bandwagon. But then I think about Justin Herbert and that majestic flow and how lights out he is, and all of those concerns** wash away.
*If the Broncos can get their act together, the AFC West will be lapping the field.
**Almost all of them. I don't care what the analytics say. Brandon Staley needs to take the points every now and then.
NFC West - San Francisco 49ers (+150)
Last and very far from least, the 49ers round out our division winners as the picks over the favorite Rams in the NFC West. As the No. 2 team in the Power Rankings, this was an easy call.
The 49ers were a dropped interception* away from returning to the Super Bowl for the second time in three years. While Jimmy G is still on the roster, Trey Lance is expected to take the reins as QB1 in San Francisco. Count me as a Trey Lance believer. I've been obsessed with Kyle Shanahan's zone scheme since his father first made it famous with the Broncos in the late 90s. The running talent and rocket arm of Lance should make for a fun enhancement to an already elite offensive system. With Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams, Nick Bosa, and Fred Warner back for more, the 49ers are primed to make another run at the Super Bowl.
*I'm going to start calling Kyle Shanahan Roy Batty because he's seen playoff calamities you people wouldn't believe. 28-3 leads on fire off the shoulder of NRG Stadium. Holding calls uncalled in the dark of the Hard Rock. All those interceptions dropped, like tears in defeat.
AFC Wildcards
Cincinnati Bengals (-135)
The defending AFC champs get back into the playoffs as the No. 6 team in our Power Rankings. The AFC is absolutely stacked* with well dressed teams. With the addition of the White Bengal helmet to the already spectacular Cincinnati wardrobe, look out for the Bengals to defend their AFC title. Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and the boys are here to stay.
*So stacked that the excellent outfits (and rosters) of the Chiefs and Ravens are on the outside looking in. I told you we'd be going against the grain!
Las Vegas Raiders (+160)
As I expected, more people were upset about the Raiders being ranked too low (No. 8) than any other team in the Power Rankings. But don't be too upset, Raiders fans. The Silver and Black make our cut for the playoffs. With Davante Adams joining a group that made the postseason last year, I'm bullish on this pick beyond just the fact that the Raiders always dress to impress.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+330)
Mike Tomlin has never had a losing record, and - with the help of the No. 12 ranked uniform wardrobe - we're not about to start betting against him now. We know what TJ Watt and the defense can do. But the Steelers success will likely come down to whether Mitch Trubisky or rookie first rounder Kenny Pickett can make things happen at QB.
NFC Wildcards
Chicago Bears (+400)
Speaking of against the grain picks, please find me someone else that thinks the Bears are making the playoffs this year. But crazier things have happened, folks. If I told you this time last year that the Bengals would not only be going to the playoffs but also would be Super Bowl bound, you'd have laughed me out of the room. We're letting the uniforms be our guide here. I believe in you, Chicago.
New York Giants (+225)
It's a new day and a new administration for the New York Football Giants. But those same old sharp uniforms* get them the nod as a wildcard pick here. All we need is for Brian Daboll** to turn Daniel Jones into the next Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley to remember that he weighs 230 pounds, and the offensive line to block someone. What could go wrong?
*Plus our wishes have been granted and the blue "GIANTS" throwbacks - plus the fantastic Super Bowl XXI endzone - are back.
**In reality, Daboll just needs to give another "Let's all remember where we came from" speech. If you don't know what I'm talking about, do yourself a favor and look it up.
Los Angeles Rams (-250)
The defending Super Bowl champs aren't missing the party this year. Sean McVay, Aaron Donald, Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Jalen Ramsey are ready to defend the crown. And look out for new addition Allen Robinson.*
*If you want to win your fantasy league this year, go get yourself Allen Robinson. Add Cam Akers while you're at it. You heard it here: both dudes are going to outperform their current ADP in a major way.
AFC - Los Angeles Chargers (+750)
NFC - San Francisco 49ers (+750)
We're forecasting a rematch of Super Bowl XXIX* with the Chargers and 49ers winning their respective conferences. It's only fitting that the top two uniform wardrobes in the league are the picks here. If we are graced with this championship matchup, we will be in for the greatest uniform matchup in Super Bowl history.
**The 1994 Chargers may be the worst team to ever make the Super Bowl. And it showed during their absolute drubbing at the hands of Steve Young's 49ers. One of the all-time worst Super Bowls.
Which brings us to the pick for Super Bowl champion...
Super Bowl - Los Angeles Chargers (+1400)
It was redemption for Anakin and it's redemption for the Chargers and the total letdown of Super Bowl XXIX.* No surprise here. As the best dressed team in NFL history, the Chargers are the ideal Super Bowl selection in the first edition of Team Futures in the Bets Dressed Newsletter.
Moving along...
Season Win Totals and Teams to Make Playoffs.
This isn't exactly rocket science. For season win totals, we're going to split the Power Rankings right down the middle. For teams No. 1 through 16, bet the over on wins. For teams No. 17 through 32, bet the under on wins.
As for playoffs, we've already covered the qualifying teams above. For qualifying teams, bet "yes" to make playoffs. For non-qualifying teams, bet "no" to make playoffs.
Here's how it all breaks down (in alphabetical order):
Arizona Cardinals
Wins: Under 8.5 (-115)
Playoffs: No (-150)
Atlanta Falcons
Wins: Under 5 (-150)
Playoffs: No (-1200)
Baltimore Ravens
Wins: Over 9.5 (-150)
Playoffs: No (+125)
Buffalo Bills
Wins: Over 11.5 (-140)
Playoffs: Yes (-550)
Carolina Panthers
Wins: Under 6.5 (-125)
Playoffs: No (-500)
Chicago Bears
Wins: Over 6.5 (+125)
Playoffs: Yes (+400)
Cincinnati Bengals
Wins: Over 10 (+105)
Playoffs: Yes (-135)
Cleveland Browns
Wins: Over (currently off the board)
Playoffs: Yes (-210)
Dallas Cowboys
Wins: Over 10 (-110)
Playoffs: Yes (-250)
Denver Broncos
Wins: Under 10 (+100)
Playoffs: No (+125)
Detroit Lions
Wins: Under 6.5 (-105)
Playoffs: No (-550)
Green Bay Packers
Wins: Over 11 (-110)
Playoffs: Yes (-500)
Houston Texans
Wins: Under 4.5 (-120)
Playoffs: No (-3500)
Indianapolis Colts
Wins: Over 10 (-105)
Playoffs: Yes (-175)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Wins: Under 6.5 (-130)
Playoffs: No (-650)
Kansas City Chiefs
Wins: Over 10.5 (-115)
Playoffs: No (+170)
Las Vegas Raiders
Wins: Over 8.5 (-120)
Playoffs: Yes (+160)
Los Angeles Chargers
Wins: Over 10 (-135)
Playoffs: Yes (-160)
Los Angeles Rams
Wins: Over 10.5 (-105)
Playoffs: Yes (-250)
Miami Dolphins
Wins: Under 9 (-125)
Playoffs: No (-175)
Minnesota Vikings
Wins: Under 9 (-105)
Playoffs: No (-110)
New England Patriots
Wins: Under 8.5 (-105)
Playoffs: No (-200)
New Orleans Saints
Wins: Under 8 (+115)
Playoffs: No (-155)
New York Giants
Wins: Over 7 (+105)
Playoffs: Yes (+225)
New York Jets
Wins: Under 5.5 (+135)
Playoffs: No (-1100)
Philadelphia Eagles
Wins: Under 9.5 (+110)
Playoffs: No (+150)
Pittsburgh Steelers
Wins: Over 7 (-125)
Playoffs: Yes (+330)
San Francisco 49ers
Wins: Over 10 (+100)
Playoffs: Yes (-225)
Seattle Seahawks
Wins: Under 5.5 (+120)
Playoffs: No (-650)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Wins: Over 11.5 (+100)
Playoffs: Yes (-650)
Tennessee Titans
Wins: Under 9 (-115)
Playoffs: No (-110)
Washington Commanders
Wins: Under 8 (-110)
Playoffs: No (-185)
Bonus: The Bird Gauntlet.
The Bird Gauntlet Parlay (+3051)
I first learned about the Bird Gauntlet a few years ago. For the uninitiated, the Gauntlet happens when the NFL Scheduling Gods bless a team with a chance to play every bird team in the NFL. The five bird teams include the Cardinals, Eagles, Falcons, Ravens, and Seahawks.
This season, the New Orleans Saints have the honor of running the Gauntlet (with the bonus of having to play the Falcons twice as a division rival). And we'll be with them every step of the way with the Bird Gauntlet Parlay. We're taking the Saints moneyline in every matchup with the bird teams.
But wait, there's more. There is one more pseudo-bird team that we often overlook. The Kansas City Chiefs still proudly wear a patch of the old American Football League logo, an homage to AFL and Chiefs founder Lamar Hunt. And that logo features a rampant eagle with a football in its talons.
As such, if the Saints somehow successfully run all six legs of the Bird Gauntlet AND if the Saints - by some miracle - make the Super Bowl and meet the Chiefs in the big game, we will be doubling down with the parlay winnings and putting them all on the Saints in the big game.*
*If this happens,** I will retire from gambling forever and ride into the sunset. It will never get better or more absurd than that.
**For those wondering, the odds of a Saints-Chiefs Super Bowl matchup are currently +17000. The combined odds of that matchup with the Bird Gauntlet Parlay are +615671.
Drop me a line.
You can always find me on Twitter at NFL Fashion Advice (@fashion_nfl) or via email at [email protected]. Come talk uniforms and all things football and let me know what you think of the newsletter.
Coming Attractions.
In the next edition of the Bets Dressed Newsletter: Individual Futures. Come check out the picks for Most Valuable Player, Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year, Defensive Rookie of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, and Coach of the Year.
As a reminder, new issues during the offseason will be dropped every two weeks. But once the season starts, expect at least one per week (if not more).
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And always remember: Look Good. Feel Good. Pay Good.