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Bets Dressed - 2022 NFL Individual Futures
Welcome to the Individual Futures issue of the Bets Dressed newsletter. We'll be covering all the major NFL season-long awards: Most Valuable Player, Offensive Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Offensive Rookie of the Year, Defensive Rookie of the Year, Comeback Player of the Year, and Coach of the Year. Let's get to it.
A quick note on lines, odds, and units.
As we did with Team Futures, I'll indicate lines/odds where applicable. Unless otherwise indicated, each pick will be for one unit.
A quick note on methodology.
The Individual Futures picks were selected based on individual swag (style, equipment, number, etc.) with a boost from being outfitted in a sharp uniform wardrobe. But there's no perfect science to it. This is an admittedly subjective endeavor.
Most Valuable Player
Joe Burrow (+1200)
Appendicitis be damned. Joe Burrow is coming for his MVP crown in 2022. Burrow is the perfect representation of the Bets Dressed approach to player award picks. He exudes cool. His swagger is off the charts. Find me a more calm, cool, and collected player in the NFL right now not named Tom Brady. And with the No. 6 wardrobe in our Power Rankings (now including the fantastic White Bengal ensemble), he's dressed for success.
While this is a swag and aesthetic based selection, the numbers don't lie. Burrow led the NFL last year in completion percentage (70.4%), yards per attempt (8.9), and air yards per attempt (9). He also finished second in QB rating behind last year's MVP, Aaron Rodgers. And he did all this while being the most sacked QB in the league coming off a torn ACL suffered in his rookie season. And would you look at that? The Bengals committed the lion's (tiger's?) share of its offseason resources to bolstering the offensive line. Add in another year of chemistry with head coach Zac Taylor; the league-best receiving corps of Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd; and the home run threat of RB Joe Mixon, and we've got the ingredients for an MVP season for the Prince of Cincinnati.
Offensive Player of the Year
Ja'Marr Chase (+3000)
We're staying in Cincinnati for OPOY with Joe Burrow's number one target and the defending OROY: Ja'Marr Chase. Whenever I think of an NFL All-Swag Team, Ja'Marr* is the first player that comes to mind. He has the look of a true No. 1 WR and the jersey number to match it.
As a Second Team AP All-Pro rookie, Ja'Marr was fourth in the NFL in receiving yards (1,455) and third in receiving TDs (13). And he did this with only 81 catches for a ridiculous 18 yards per reception. In the 17-game-schedule era, we're going to see a WR eclipse 2,000 yards in a season for the first time in NFL history. And when that happens, I'll be shocked if that player doesn't take home the OPOY award. My money's on Ja'Marr Chase to be that guy.
*He also is one of those athletes where you primarily use his first name. The tell-tale sign that someone has ascended into common knowledge sports star status.
Defensive Player of the Year
Nick Bosa (+1500)
Joey Bosa (+2000)
We're going with a two-fer for DPOY: Nick Bosa and Joey Bosa. The two best dressed teams and highest ranked uniform wardrobes feature superstar edge rushers who happen to be brothers. The Bosas each rock No. 97,* the same number their father wore for the Dolphins.
The case for Nick: he had an outside argument for the award last year coming off a season lost to a torn ACL, but TJ Watt's sack numbers and Aaron Donald's otherworldly greatness overshadowed his case. He led the league with 21 tackles for loss, and his 15.5 sacks were a considerable increase from his 9-sack DROY season in 2019. If this trend continues, 20+ sacks are in play.
The case for Joey: he has been the main guy off the edge for the Chargers. But we are going to see him with an elite running mate on the opposite side now that Khalil Mack is in town. With an increased focus on Mack, expect Joey's double team rate to drop with corresponding rise in pressures, hits, and sacks. Factor in all of that Super Bowl buzz, and there are far worse DPOY bets than the best defensive player on the Chargers.
*97 is such an underrated number for defensive linemen. Surprisingly, the only Hall of Famer known for No. 97 is Bryant Young (to be inducted this year). Other No. 97 club greats include La'Roi Glover, Geno Atkins, Cam Heyward, and Simeon Rice. The Bosas have punchers' chances to be atop the list of greatest No. 97s ever at the end of their careers.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Skyy Moore (+1000)
I'm giving Skyy Moore the OROY nod for one reason and one reason only: the No. 24. When is the last time a WR wore a number in the 20s?* The NFL's relaxed jersey number rules have irked some, but those that follow me know that I am major proponent of letting NFL players wear whatever number they want.
To make matters better, Moore has been solid in training camp with some highlight worthy catches. And with the departure of Tyreek Hill, there are 159 targets from last year up for grabs in Kansas City. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Mecole Hardman aren't exactly All-Pros, and I like Skyy Moore to seize his opportunity early and often.
*Not counting Devin Hester, I believe the answer is Dexter McCluster, who wore No. 22 and was listed as a WR with the Chief in 2013. However, he came into the league as a RB. Some notable WRs** rocking numbers in the 20s over the years: Cliff Branch (21), Fred Biletnikoff (25), Ahmad Rashad (28), and Harold Jackson (29).
**While not a WR, Deion Sanders (during a First Team All-Pro CB season) caught 36 balls for 475 yards in 1996. Banana land.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Perrion Winfrey (+10000)
Aidan Hutchinson (+550)
Another defensive two-fer, this time for DROY: Perrion Winfrey and Aidan Hutchinson. A longshot and a favorite. Each is another addition to the No. 97 club referenced above.
The case for Winfrey: It's easy to go with Perrion Winfrey from a uniform perspective alone. The Browns boast the No. 3 ranked uniform wardrobe in our Power Rankings. But it's not just the team he plays on. Winfrey has as much swag as any interior defender I've seen. He rocked No. 8 in college, but the NFL's jersey number rules* for defensive linemen limit him to 50-79 or 90-99 in the pros. And his facemask and visor game is always on point. The man knows how to dress on the gridiron, which isn't always the case for the big boys.
The case for Hutchinson: If the Lions had adopted the Barry Sanders 90s uniforms this year, I may have featured Aidan Hutchinson in The Northmen graphic instead of Packers QB Aaron Rodgers. The young man looks like a nordic warrior. He even has the eye black face paint to go with it. The Lions have so much potential from a uniform standpoint, and Hutchinson has as much - if not more - on the football field. The crown for Prince of Detroit is there for the taking. The hometown kid has a chance to be the face of Dan Campbell's Detroit Lions. And I'm banking on him to live up to the moment.
*Again, let NFL players wear whatever number they want. The league's rules are especially confusing where certain defensive ends are able to wear numbers outside of the defensive linemen range, including single digits. I'm assuming they count them as LBs even where they primarily play on ball off the edge. Lose the red tape. If nothing else, at least let defensive linemen start dipping into the 80s. Some of the best defensive linemen in NFL history featured numbers in the 80s: Doug Atkins (81), Jack Youngblood (85), Buck Buchanan (86), and Gino Marchetti (89) to name a few.
Comeback Player of the Year
Baker Mayfield (+1200)
Cards on the table: I've always been a Baker guy. I'm a sucker for the chip-on-the-shoulder mentality, and no one has a bigger chip on their shoulder than Baker (especially after the Browns kicked him to the curb in search of an "adult" at QB). I also am a huge fan of his jersey number; No. 6 is such an underrated number.*
The CPOY script writes itself. Former first overall pick is cast aside by the moribund franchise that he helped to its first playoff win since 1994 after a season where he gutted out an injury. Said castoff goes to a team on the ropes with a coach on the hot seat. And if that castoff leads the team to the playoffs? Crazier things have happened. The Panthers have a sneaky good defense, an elite-when-healthy RB in Christian McCaffrey, and an underrated stud WR in DJ Moore. The abysmal offensive line from a year ago has some fresh blood, including first rounder Ickey Ekwonu. If the Panthers make the playoffs with Mayfield at QB after the year he's had, it's hard for me to see anyone else taking home the CPOY award.
And to put my money where my mouth is: I'm making this a 13-unit play a.k.a. the Baker's Dozen.
*I love a number that is wide open for "greatest player to ever wear X" status. Baker's new teammate Johnny Hekker gave up No. 6, and - ironically enough - Hekker is probably the best No. 6 in NFL history! While punters are rarely thought of as "greatest all time" in any category, Hekker is a six-time AP All-Pro. The only other real contender for best No. 6 ever is Jay Cutler, who made no All-Pro teams and only one Pro Bowl in an era where every QB makes the Pro Bowl.
Coach of the Year
Mike McDaniel (+1600)
I can't get enough of Mike McDaniel. And he's the pick here for COY. As offensive coordinator for Kyle Shanahan, McDaniel went viral for his quirky and hilarious press conferences. The Yale graduate is a breath of fresh air, and he's loaded with offensive talent in Miami. But McDaniel locked this pick up when I saw him sporting the monk strap shoes.*
The name of the game will be speed in South Beach with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Raheem Mostert at the skill position spots. The elephant in the room is Tua Tagovailoa and whether he can be the franchise QB for the Dolphins.** And there will be no excuses if it doesn't happen with this roster. But I'm a big believer in the Shanahan system, and McDaniel will be able to introduce some wrinkles of his own - especially with the talent he has on offense. Count me as a believer.
*Actual fashion advice from NFL Fashion Advice: every man should own at least one pair of monk strap shoes. You will never get more compliments on your shoes. Instant indicator you are a sharp dresser.
**Don't look now, but the Dolphins have built one of the most attractive QB destinations in football if Tua doesn't work out and it's time to go big-game QB hunting in the offseason. Overtures to obtain Tom Brady - among other things - resulted in the team's forfeiture of its 2023 first round pick, but that doesn't mean they won't pursue him again in the offseason. And Aaron Rodgers and Kyler Murray haven't been the happiest campers in recent years. But my favorite longshot possibility for Dolphins QB in 2023? The Pompano Beach native and currently unextended Lamar Jackson.
Drop me a line.
You can always find me on Twitter at NFL Fashion Advice (@fashion_nfl) or via email at [email protected]. Come talk uniforms and all things football and let me know what you think of the newsletter.
Coming Attractions.
I'm shooting for two more offseason editions of the Bets Dressed newsletter before we settle into the weekly picks routine. Keep an eye out for Stat Props / Fantasy Rankings and Top 5 Super Bowl LVII Uniform Matchup Possibilities in the weeks to come.
Once the season kicks off, I'm thinking the weekly picks issue will drop Thursday morning. That's where you can find my breakdown of every uniform matchup for the week, including my best and worst matchups. And a recap issue will follow each Tuesday.
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